BUSHIDO 12 PICKS AND PREDICTIONS

Feel free to disagree in the comments, and to remind me how awesome I am once they all come true. Or you know, what a retard I am and how poorly I picked them.

Hatsu Hioki vs. Jeff Curran
Both guys are very impressive, and really should help form a new 143 lb division in Pride. Make it happen. Curran has fought and beat the better fighters, notably taking Kid Yamamoto to decision, but don’t be surprised if Hioki steps up his game and wins it. Should be a very close fight. Curran by submission round 2.

Shinya Aoki vs. Jason Black
Black has a ridiculously good record, but against low-level fighters. He has trouble dealing with great grapplers. Aoki is pretty much the best Japanese grappler alive right now. Uh-oh Mr. Black. Black stands a chance of winning it because Aoki isn’t incredibly durable and runs forwards with his arms out like a gimp, but Black isn’t a GnP monster. Look for Aoki to just cream him with subs. Black could survive to the end of the match to lose a decision based on sub attempts, but Aoki has made incredible grapplers look like children, so expect a sub round 1. Aoki by submission round 1.

Nobuhiro Obiya vs. Gilbert Melendez
Two undefeated former shooters are stepping up in weight to fight it out. Obiya trains with Gomi and has wins over tough opposition in DEEP. Melendez is a monster in the featherweight division, so he shouldn’t be badly outsized at 160, but the real question is how much of his ability depends on being a giant compared to his opponents, who don’t cut nearly as much weight at featherweight. That said, Melendez is a finisher and a brutal one. I’ve never seen him even in trouble in a fight, and he can smash people standing or on the ground. Look for him to finish early. Melendez TKO Round 1

Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Chris Brennan
A few weeks ago, Brennan was bitten by a brown recluse spider and tried to pull out of this fight. A brown recluse’s venom dissolves and kills muscle and tissue and is very serious. Serious business. For reasons unknown (most likely involving the phrase “never fight for DSE again”) Brennan has decided he will take the fight after all, so expect him to look worse than usual and gas badly. That said, Kawajiri is still burning from his embarrassingly one-sided loss to Gomi, and wants to prove a point in every fight. He’s out for blood, so I would expect a stoppage in round 1 even if Brennan came at 100%. Kawajiri TKO Round 1.

Mitsuhiro Ishida vs. Christiano Marcello
Marcello is the BJJ coach for Chute Boxe. Since Chute Boxe is the best thing to happen to Pride since Takada dojo, he gets to fight in the big show. Unfortunately, he’s being set up in a “look how awesome our ‘new’ Japanese fighter is” match. Ishida is essentially un-subbable. In addition to great grappling skill, the guy WILL NOT TAP. He’s a workhorse and is going to drive a GnP pace Marcello can’t hang with. Marcello isn’t nearly as big as Aurelio, so he’s going to get beat up worse, but will most likely make it to the closing bell, with lots of bruises and swelling. Ishida by decision.

Hayato Sakurai vs. Luciano Azevedo
Sakurai is an elder statesman of MMA at this point, but he looks to be in the best shape of his life. The guy can do it all, judo throws, wrestling, kickboxing, and submissions. These years will be regarded as the peak of his career if he can avoid going into another lazy slide of uninspired fights. Azevedo is a very talented fighter with a great submission rate for any grappler, especially one that claims luta-livre as his style, but I don’t think he’ll be able to control Sakurai’s game. “Mach” is going to take it to him standing with short punchs and heavy leg-kicks, in what should be a highlight fight.. Mach KO round 1.

Ikuhisa Minowa vs Eric “Butterbean” Esch
Who cares, how it turns out, this fight is going to be awesome. Seriously though, Minowa’s wrestling and subs will probably let him submit Butterbean without too much trouble. But the bean is taking his training seriously it seems, and is actually with a great team in ATT. He’s beaten 5 in a row with submissions under various special rules, and he can always turn someone’s face inside out with a punch, so it should be pretty exciting. Minowa Submission round 1.

Takanori Gomi vs. David Baron
David Baron has a lot going for him. He’s 10 and 1. He’s a snappy dresser and has a cool haircut. He’s also probably going to make a decent payday getting chin-checked by the best LW in the world. Gomi KO round 1 2 minutes


THAT OTHER PRIDE TOURNAMENT

Gegard Mousasi vs. Akihiro Gono
Please do not be confused by Gegard’s record. Travis Fulton would blush to have wins over some of these guys. Gegard was brought in for one purpose: to lose to Takimoto and put him over, to make DSE’s investment in him worthwhile. It seems reasonable: French kickboxer with questionable ground skills and an impressive-sounding record with nobody that great on it vs a great judo player. Has UFC 1 written all over it. Too bad Takimoto doesn’t have a mean bone in his body. Gono is going to have his with with Mousasi, if he doesn’t gas out during his entrance (or blow a knee Aerts style). Gono submits Mousasi round 1.

Denis Kang vs. Amar Suloev
Kang, a former BJJ fighter, has gotten a taste of the knockout and likes it. Look for him to gun for more bombs in this fight. It’s really hard to judge where Kang is now from the Ninja fight, because in any fight that ends that fast, someone got lucky. He hasn’t lost since 2003, which, interestingly, is the last time he faced a great opponent. Still, 18 fights without a loss against even middling opponents is impressive, and Kang has fought a lot of good, if not great fighters. Meanwhile Suloev has been fighting very solid guys and impressing everyone when he comes out of his shell and tries to win. If Kang can get aggressive and score early and put Suloev on the back foot, he could take this. But I expect quality will shine through in a close fight, and Suloev will surprise people by winning this one. Suloev by Decision.

Ryo Chonan vs. Paulo Filho
I’m sorry. I want Ryo to win, but Filho is going to hold him down. Chonan’s only hope is some kind of cut or injury, which isn’t impossible as he’s won by cut before and Filho is often injured. Don’t be surprised to see the armbar, but I don’t think it’ll come, because Chonan really wants and needs this fight. Filho by Decision

Dan Henderson vs. Kazuo Misaki
This rematch should be interesting. I honestly don’t think Dan is that hungry anymore, or really ever was. The man is just naturally a competitor, but I don’t think he cares about the belt particularly, and just wants to go in there and fight. I think Misaki really feels he can prove something and be the great Japanese hope in the 183lb division. Expect Misaki to try to implement the same game of technical striking, with a little more refinement. Dan’s going to come in and do what he always does: use his power and toughness to keep it even on the feet, and use his wrestling ability to control the pace of the fight. If Misaki doesn’t screw up and eat a bomb, and Dan comes in shape and doesn’t fall apart later in the fight, Dan’s going to take a clear decision in a solid technical fight. Henderson by Decision