Thursday, August 28, 2008
Friday, April 18, 2008
Sam Stout vs. Rich Clementi
Clementi: +130
Stout: -160
What does Sam Stout bring that Anthony Johnson, Ross Pointon, or Melvin Guillard doesn't? Nothing. He will win a kickboxing match, but Clementi is tough and isn't dumb enough to go in and try to kickbox. I really don't understand this betting line at all. Clementi isn't going to be wearing a title belt anytime soon, but look at his record. His only losses in years are all to top level guys, who will reliably beat him, but also bring a well-rounded elite-level game into the octagon with them. Stout does not. He brings big punches and a good chin. That's not going to help against a submission wrestler. Clementi Submission round 1
I have money on Clementi at +140
Joe Doerksen vs. Jason MacDonald
MacDonald: -170
Doerksen: +140
Doerksen has been around a long time, and MacDonald is an up and comer. Macdonald has good submisison skills, very strong wrestling, and some power in his hands. Unless Doerksen can manage to be as dominant a wrestler as Yushin Okami or pound MacDonald as mercilessly as rich franklin did, Macdonald will knock him out again, even with his slow-mo punches.
I have money on Macdonald at -170
Jonathan Goulet vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Goulet: +190
Hironaka: -240
Goulet is the ultimate boom/bust fighter. I don't know if Hironaka has the tools or killer instinct to jump on the inevitable openings to finish him off, and I am always worried of Japanese fighters sleeping their way to decision loss in a slow, unaggressive technical standup fight. I don't know why it happens, but sometimes it does. That said, Hironaka SHOULDN'T lose here, because he can take what Goulet has to offer, and can threaten him in areas where Goulet is weak. Hironaka via submissions round 2.
Mark Bocek vs. Mac Danzig
Danzig: -475
Bocek: +375
A showpiece for Danzig. Bocek has the appearance of a threat because of his BJJ experience, but Danzig is a very strong grappler in his own right, and he's shown a variety of skills and great top control, so unless Bocek can put him on his back, Danzig will just show what he can do and win an impressive decision.
Ed Herman vs. Demian Maia
Demian Maia: -185
Ed Herman: +155
Ed Herman has very good grappling, although Maia should be favored there. I just expect that Herman's wrestling and his powerful hands should let him 'smash' any BJJ offense Demian tries to put together. This is a provisional pick, as I haven't watched enough tape on Demian. If I don't find any reason to change my mind, I will be putting money on Herman.
Brad Morris vs. Cain Velasquez
Morris: +175
Velasquez: -215
Noob heavyweights, who cares? Not me. Bet on the underdog if you must, because heavyweights are sloppy like that.
Jason Day vs. Alan Belcher
Belcher: -345
Day: +275
If you haven't seen it, go back and watch Belcher's fight with Kalib Starnes. He beat starnes like a slave, even doing the old Ray Sefo "take it and smile". Belcher has some very nice crisp Muay Thai, with good head movement, although he seems to get hit a lot while trading. If he keeps that up, eventually someone will tag him a good one and put him to sleep, but I don't think Day is the man to do it. While Day is coming off his biggest win (split decision over a sleepwalking David Loiseau) I fully expect Belcher to come in and smash "Dooms"Day's brains all over the canvas. He deserves it for that nickname.
Nate Quarry vs. Kalib Starnes
Starnes: +225
Quarry: -285
Both of these guys looked like shit in their last fights. Quarry was a punching bag for Pete Sell, which is never a good sign when you're a standup-only threat. Starnes looked like a whipped dog whenever Belcher or Leben hit him, although when he wasn't cringing like a little girl, he showed some good offense on the feet, and of course his grappling is on point. I don't think Quarry has the speed or technique to just overwhelm Starnes like those two did, and I don't think he has the athleticism of Belcher or the combination of wrestling and grappling that leben has. Starnes is a threat when he can control the fight and force work on the ground, and I think he can use his length to defend against Quarry and maybe work a little standup to wear the guy down. This fight will end as a blowout, either with Quarry making Starnes crap his pants trying to cower away from his abuser again, or with Starnes dominating position and submitting Quarry. I think Starnes has it.
I have money on Starnes at +265
Rich Franklin vs. Travis Lutter
There's no reason to give Lutter a shot here. He's looked more dangerous with his submissions than ever before, but Franklin is still rich Franklin. Everyone is thinking back to the armlock Okami nearly had on Franklin. I have news for you--Okami didn't finish it, and he has monster wrestling (to put franklin on his back) godzilla strength (to force Franklin's arms around like that, and to just force a sub) and very good defense on the feet (to hang with Franklin that long). Not to mention Okami's athleticism and conditioning. Lutter has none of that, just ugly facial hair. If Franklin comes in with his shoes tied together and falls flat on his back, maybe Lutter can crawl onto him and work his top game and submit, but barring that, Franklin is just going to hammer him to a stoppage. If Lutter isn't spark-out by the end of round 1, I'll be surprised, but his cardio will die and he'll get ground to a TKO in round 2.
Michael Bisping vs. Charles McCarthy
McCarthy: +290
Bisping: -350
McCarthy has a very dangerous offensive submission game, although he can get caught as well. Bisping has phenomenal sub defense, pretty good offensive submissions and sweeps, workable wrestling/takedown defense, and a very dangerous standup game. I expect Bisping to just fight this like a kickboxing match, scoring points and working for the judges. Bisping Unanimous Decision.
Matt Serra vs. Georges St. Pierre
GSP: -500
Serra: +400
Serra is the worst/weakest UFC champion in a LONG time, in my opinion. He shouldn't have been in the octagon with GSP in the first place, and, while he beat GSP with the exact same punch that he nearly killed Karo Parisyan with, GSP shouldn't have let him land it. Serra's putative strength is his ground game, but he has not shown much ability to threaten with is in MMA. Now, if GSP has a weakness (aside from speculative mental weaknesses) it's guys that just come in and beat him up. It puts him on the back foot and messes his day up. The prototypical example is BJ vs. GSP round 1. BJ just came in and hammered him, and GSP couldn't deal with it. That said, GSP should be safe as can be in Serra's guard, so if he comes in and fights smart, he'll drive the world's hardest double leg every time Serra comes in tossing hammers. If he does this for three rounds, Serra will be absolutely spent and GSP can prop him up and kick his head off like a Tee-Ball. GSP also has the power in his strikes to finish Serra at any other time, but I don't think he'll be comfortable at all trading with the Manhattan midget, so expect the takedowns. Serra is tough, but his gas is poor, so GSP by TKO or Submission in the 4th.
I have money on Serra at +400, because those are ludicrous odds. Serra may not be a standup expert, but, since he landed the same punch (to almost the same effect) on Karo, I don't think it's impossible that he does the same thing again. Combine that with the amount of pressure GSP is under, and the generally good performance of underdogs in UFC title fights, and I'll take Serra at +400 all day.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
NEW AND IMPROVED!!!!!!!
Nate Diaz vs. Kurt Pellegrino
To be filled in later. - I have a feeling here.
Manny Gamburyan vs. Jeff Cox
If you haven't seen Thiago Alves' KO of Jeff Cox, you should definitely check it out. Kind of embarassing. Cox has some skills, but he is boom or bust, and doesn't defend himself very well, although his offense isn't bad. Manny is being set up to win here, and I expect he'll be able to Manny by Sub, round 1.
Matt Hamill vs. Tim Boetsch
I love the Barbarian toss. It was seriously awesome. Hamill comes in there and mauls guys with his power, but a lot of that depends on his opponents being afraid of his wrestling. I don't think Tim is a better wrestler, but I think he can do enough to frustrate Matt that it won't impede his strikes on Matt. If Tim comes in and throws the same variety and crispness of strikes vs. Matt, I think he'll only give up the takedown infrequently, and he'll batter Hamill. Hamill is tough, but he seems to fade, so if he gets beaten on, Tim could finish him in the third, Decision is more likely, I think.
Roman Mitichyan vs. George Sotiropoulos
If Roman can't submit George, he will lose. He can't submit George. George is more skilled in every position, as well as more athletic. Roman is tough, technical, and game to fight, so this will be interesting. I expect Roman just won't be able to hang with the skills George brings to the table, and will wear himself down trying. I think George finishes him in the second.
Anthony Johnson vs. Tommy Speer
Johnson can punch well. Speer can punch hard and wrestle. You see where this goes. Speer TKO (punishment) Rd 2
Josh Neer vs. Din Thomas
Neer is a solid fighter; athletic, good power, no glaring weaknesses, decent in all areas. However, his standup seems to rely more on power than technique, which is what made Nick Diaz look like Mohammad Ali in their fight. Someone like Din Thomas, as slick and technical as he is, will continue to pick him apart. I expect to see Din beat on him until he can down him, then jump onto a submission while Neer is still dazed. It's hard to predict how long this takes, but Din isn't the hardest puncher in the world, so it could take longer.
Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard
Maynard is too slow and too raw to win this one. Edgar is just a level above him at this point. Gray may one day be on the same level, but for right now, he's still fresh out of TUF, and raw as hell, mostly relying on his physicality and toughness. Edgar has those things too, but has honed his skills to a sharper edge. I expect Edgar to beat Gray at every aspect of the game they engage in, for Gray to gas, and Edgar to finish him.
Houston Alexander vs. James Irvin
Who lands first? They win it. I expect it will be Irvin, because he won't be afraid of a banger that comes right at him. In fact, he'll invite it. He's used to that kind of thing. Irvin KO round 1 I love this fight. It's like a dirty joke or a late-night cinemax movie. It's inappropriate and embarassing, but it's what I want to see. I giggle a little.
Clay Guida vs. Samy Schiavo
Maybe Guida will get a finish here. I don't really fault him for not being the world's strongest finisher, because lord knows he tries. Samy will probably be overwhelmed and worn down and RNC'd. You know how that goes. Guida RNC Rd 2
Karo Parisyan vs. Thiago Alves
I just don't think Karo can get in there and control Thiago for 3 rounds. Previously I've said Thiago's wrestling isn't the best, but in retrospect, it's very good. Watch his fights with Tony Desouza or John Alessio. He brickwalled both of them. On top of that, Alves destroys people with his shots. His leg kicks sell wheelchairs, and his punches are discombobulating too. Hell, he sat Fitch on his ass within 20 seconds of the opening bell (granted, fitch got back up and owned him). Karo has shown trouble working his game against strong wrestlers, and while he may get some takedowns, he doesn't have the "you can't move me I'm a blanket" skills that wrestlers naturally develop. He won't get submitted, but nor will he credibly threaten Thiago with a submission.
Even if Karo catches every leg kick thiago throws, and takes him down, I expect Karo's leg to fall off in the third round. Karo has won his last several fights primarily with his standup, and that will be problematic, considering he isn't that strong defensively and mostly just relies on being tough. Karo will never quit, he has a good chin, and is tough as hell. I expect Thiago to lay an epic beating on him. Thiago TKO round 2
at +145, I have money on Thiago
Kenny Florian vs. Joe Lauzon
This is tricky. Joe comes out, blitzes his opponents with takedowns and violence and hustle. He doesn't do so well if his opponent is live and can resist that and make him work for it and hit him back. The described strategy is exactly what Diego Sanchez did to Kenny "Shang Tsung" Florian on TUF, but Florian has improved a lot since then and Lauzon is no Diego Sanchez. A lot of people give Kenny credit for lasting 5 rounds with sherk, but he did NOTHING in that fight, and Sherk has never in his career finished anyone that is either tough or good on the ground.
I think Kenny has improved to the point where he's a threat to Joe standing, at least points-wise. Joe will probably get some takedowns, but he'll have to work for them, and Kenny will defend and look to sweep. I think this goes to decision (or at least the third round) with Kenny winning a pretty clear-cut decision.
Nate Diaz vs. Kurt Pellegrino
To be filled in later. - I have a feeling here.
Manny Gamburyan vs. Jeff Cox
If you haven't seen Thiago Alves' KO of Jeff Cox, you should definitely check it out. Kind of embarassing. Cox has some skills, but he is boom or bust, and doesn't defend himself very well, although his offense isn't bad. Manny is being set up to win here, and I expect he'll be able to Manny by Sub, round 1.
Matt Hamill vs. Tim Boetsch
I love the Barbarian toss. It was seriously awesome. Hamill comes in there and mauls guys with his power, but a lot of that depends on his opponents being afraid of his wrestling. I don't think Tim is a better wrestler, but I think he can do enough to frustrate Matt that it won't impede his strikes on Matt. If Tim comes in and throws the same variety and crispness of strikes vs. Matt, I think he'll only give up the takedown infrequently, and he'll batter Hamill. Hamill is tough, but he seems to fade, so if he gets beaten on, Tim could finish him in the third, Decision is more likely, I think.
Roman Mitichyan vs. George Sotiropoulos
If Roman can't submit George, he will lose. He can't submit George. George is more skilled in every position, as well as more athletic. Roman is tough, technical, and game to fight, so this will be interesting. I expect Roman just won't be able to hang with the skills George brings to the table, and will wear himself down trying. I think George finishes him in the second.
Anthony Johnson vs. Tommy Speer
Johnson can punch well. Speer can punch hard and wrestle. You see where this goes. Speer TKO (punishment) Rd 2
Josh Neer vs. Din Thomas
Neer is a solid fighter; athletic, good power, no glaring weaknesses, decent in all areas. However, his standup seems to rely more on power than technique, which is what made Nick Diaz look like Mohammad Ali in their fight. Someone like Din Thomas, as slick and technical as he is, will continue to pick him apart. I expect to see Din beat on him until he can down him, then jump onto a submission while Neer is still dazed. It's hard to predict how long this takes, but Din isn't the hardest puncher in the world, so it could take longer.
Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard
Maynard is too slow and too raw to win this one. Edgar is just a level above him at this point. Gray may one day be on the same level, but for right now, he's still fresh out of TUF, and raw as hell, mostly relying on his physicality and toughness. Edgar has those things too, but has honed his skills to a sharper edge. I expect Edgar to beat Gray at every aspect of the game they engage in, for Gray to gas, and Edgar to finish him.
Houston Alexander vs. James Irvin
Who lands first? They win it. I expect it will be Irvin, because he won't be afraid of a banger that comes right at him. In fact, he'll invite it. He's used to that kind of thing. Irvin KO round 1 I love this fight. It's like a dirty joke or a late-night cinemax movie. It's inappropriate and embarassing, but it's what I want to see. I giggle a little.
Clay Guida vs. Samy Schiavo
Maybe Guida will get a finish here. I don't really fault him for not being the world's strongest finisher, because lord knows he tries. Samy will probably be overwhelmed and worn down and RNC'd. You know how that goes. Guida RNC Rd 2
Karo Parisyan vs. Thiago Alves
I just don't think Karo can get in there and control Thiago for 3 rounds. Previously I've said Thiago's wrestling isn't the best, but in retrospect, it's very good. Watch his fights with Tony Desouza or John Alessio. He brickwalled both of them. On top of that, Alves destroys people with his shots. His leg kicks sell wheelchairs, and his punches are discombobulating too. Hell, he sat Fitch on his ass within 20 seconds of the opening bell (granted, fitch got back up and owned him). Karo has shown trouble working his game against strong wrestlers, and while he may get some takedowns, he doesn't have the "you can't move me I'm a blanket" skills that wrestlers naturally develop. He won't get submitted, but nor will he credibly threaten Thiago with a submission.
Even if Karo catches every leg kick thiago throws, and takes him down, I expect Karo's leg to fall off in the third round. Karo has won his last several fights primarily with his standup, and that will be problematic, considering he isn't that strong defensively and mostly just relies on being tough. Karo will never quit, he has a good chin, and is tough as hell. I expect Thiago to lay an epic beating on him. Thiago TKO round 2
at +145, I have money on Thiago
Kenny Florian vs. Joe Lauzon
This is tricky. Joe comes out, blitzes his opponents with takedowns and violence and hustle. He doesn't do so well if his opponent is live and can resist that and make him work for it and hit him back. The described strategy is exactly what Diego Sanchez did to Kenny "Shang Tsung" Florian on TUF, but Florian has improved a lot since then and Lauzon is no Diego Sanchez. A lot of people give Kenny credit for lasting 5 rounds with sherk, but he did NOTHING in that fight, and Sherk has never in his career finished anyone that is either tough or good on the ground.
I think Kenny has improved to the point where he's a threat to Joe standing, at least points-wise. Joe will probably get some takedowns, but he'll have to work for them, and Kenny will defend and look to sweep. I think this goes to decision (or at least the third round) with Kenny winning a pretty clear-cut decision.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
All odds are from bookmaker.com, where I do my betting. Please notice that my "expert" advice has irony quotes around the word 'expert'. I am not actually an expert and you should make your own decisions.
Jorge Gurgel -215
John Halverson +175
I've never seen Halverson fight aside from being blitzed by Huerta, but he has a really astonishing KO rate (and a mediocre record). Gurgel used to be touted as the next big thing, but he's been exposed as a fighter that can't follow a gameplan or fight smart. He has skills, he has heart, and he's tough as nails, but he likes to eat punches to the face. He probably doesn't want to do that too much against someone with as much finishing ability as Halverson apparently has, but he's also probably tougher than anyone Halverson has ever fought. Gurgel will most likely make this more of a fight than it should be, and submit Halverson late in the 1st or midway through the second.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: I see no value in this line. Gurgel is enough of a tard to maybe lose to someone so beatable, but the odds reflect that. Gurgel might be underpriced, but I don't like betting on favorites, especially when they're as unpredictable as gurgel.
Andrei Arlovski -355
Jake OBrien +285
This fight is pretty interesting. It's been a while since we've seen Arlovski fight a strong wrestler. He shrugged off the janitor back in 2003, but he also outsized him, and Vladdy was going through his "has been" stage before he decided to become an "Is again" in the IFL. After seeing Heath Herring drop Jake early in their fight, I expect Arlovski will most likely pop the Irish Stallion a good one in this fight, and finish him off, snapping a pretty impressive undefeated streak. However, I'd be very curious to see how Arlovski handles being put on the matt and roughed up for a while. I don't think he'd take it well. Arlovski TKO round 1
Humungus "expert" betting advice: This line is kind of interesting because I think if Jake can out-wrestle arlovski (which I don't expect he'll readily be able to do) then he has a good chance of beating him. That said, Jake has questionable finishing ability when not fighting complete scrubs, and he's still a pretty unknown quantity, so I am hesitant to put any money on him.
Diego Sanchez -550
David Bielkheden +400
Mr. Bielkheden has a very spiffy pocket square;
However, I do not think he can wear it in the ring, so the spiffy swede is SOL. When one's only quality win is Charles McCartyh in 2004, Diego Sanchez is going to take you down and submit you or beat your face in, very quickly.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: Knowing how poor Diego's standup is, it's kinda tempting to put a few bucks down on such a massive underdog with KO power, but resistance to temptation is important. Diego is almost assuredly going to win, but betting on him would be idiocy at these odds.
Luke Cummo -160
Luigi Fioravanti +125
Close fight, hopefully we'll see some more crisp technical kickboxing from Cummo, who has developed some nasty power lately. Neither guy is a world-beater, but neither guy has a lot of embarassing losses either. I can't say I'm that fired up for this one. Cummo is most likely going to win by decision.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: Don't.
Jon Fitch -650
Chris Wilson +500
The difference here is experience. Fitch has been in with some of the top talent from this weightclass, and he's often emerged victorious. He hasn't had an easy fight. Until now. The best fighter Wilson has faced up until fitch is Nick Thompson, who finished him handily. Fitch will most likely do the same thing. Takedowns, grinding, abuse, until Wilson can't handle any more in the second round and gets finished.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: Wilson is such a longshot that it's tempting to bet on him on the off chance that he lands something really solid on fitch. Fitch is hittable and he's been KO'd before, so it's possible. At these odds, it's worth the money if you think Wilson wins 1/6 times. I don't think he does, though.
Chris Leben -160
Alessio Sakara +130
Sakara's chin would appear suspect, since he has been KO'd twice recently, but it's important to remember what happened in those fights. Houston drilled his grill with a brutal knee, and Mcfedries throws bombs like that's all he knows how to do. Which it is. In any case, entering the fight, Leben has more ways to win and more tools in his box, with his wrestling and submission skills in addition to his big right hand. If they just get into a standup exchange, Sakara's boxing SHOULD let him get the better of leben, but with leben's chin and power, he stands a chance in any brawl. If Leben comes in and fights smart, he'll control with wrestling and get an armbar midway through the fight. But 'smart' is a word rarely used to describe Chris Leben.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: If you believe in Sakara's hands AND think that Leben is going to be an idiot and try to just stand and bang all day, Sakara might not be a bad bet. Personally, I don't believe those things.
Cheick Kongo -170
Heath Herring +140
Heath Herring is the slop king. Kongo is the standup mandingo. Kongo's advantage is that he has an identifiable skill to threaten his opponent with. However, he also has glaring weaknesses. Herring's only weakness was the risk of his balls slipping out of his too-tiny fight shorts, which he has corrected by getting some proper pants. Heath doesn't have any readily identifiable dominant strengths, but he is competent in all areas, and brings a lot of hustle and toughness to his game. Herring needs this fight on the ground, and his wrestling is his weakest skill. However, Kongo's is very bad, and Herring can probably manage to drag him down eventually. While Heath did spend 10 minutes staring at Giant Silva before figuring out the freak was useless on the ground, I expect he'll be able to get Kongo to the ground and find a way to rough him up or submit him.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: I like heath in this fight. I think he's tough enough to fool around with Kongo for a while, and Kongo's utter uselessness on the ground even vs. Crocop make me think Heath will beat him up and twist his arms and suchlike. I have some money on Heath here.
Josh Koscheck -445
Dustin Hazelett +365
Losing to GSP doesn't mean you've fallen off. Koscheck still decides where he fights any fight he's in not involving french canadians. However, out-jabbing Diego "T-Rex Arms" Sanchez does not mean you're a dominant stand-up fighter. I don't know what kind of advantage Koscheck gains vs. Hazelett by forcing a standup fight, as Hazelett has hurt a few guys with his hands, and blown Chad Reiner's brains out in seven seconds with them. Hazelett is no mike tyson, but then again, neither is Koscheck. Coming into this fight, I see them pretty even on the feet.
On the ground, Koscheck's chances are much worse. Hazelett is a huge submission threat off his back, so Koscheck driving into a million takedowns for the decision takes a lot of risks of getting caught. Koscheck Handled Jeff Joslin for three rounds, but he was threatened several times, and I think Hazelett is more of a sub threat in MMA. He sees openings and he takes them. Koscheck will NOT be happy on top of Dustin Hazelett. Nor will he be happy with Dustin Hazelett transitions from a triangle to an armbar and taps out Koscheck in round 1.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: I think these odds are ridiculous. Hazelett is a huge underdog on the odds, and I think he's going to win the fight. Even if you don't think he's more likely to win, the odds are an even bet on Hazelett if you think he wins 1 in 5 times. I have money on Hazelett.
Yushin Okami -240
Evan Tanner +190
Welcome back Evan Tanner. Having been out for two years, it's very difficult to know what to expect from Evan. I'm going to do some more research into what's going on with his training and for how long he's been cleaned up and back into the game, and then I'll update this post with that information.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: At this point, betting on tanner is a total roll of the dice. That said, if he comes in like he did in top form years ago, he has the skills needed to beat someone as one-dimensional as Okami. Might be a good bet if you're a tanner believer.
Anderson Silva -170
Dan Henderson +140
This is going to be a very epic fight. Will Henderson be the lethal ball of fists he was vs. Rampage or Wanderlei (II) or will he windmill aimlessly and act like he has no concept of punching distance or footwork, like he did vs. Misaki? Will Anderson Silva actually go for a clinch? Will Anderson put on another virtuosic performance of perfectly lethal striking and focus, or will he drift away and become the same Silva that struggled with Ryo Chonan's standup and made Daiju Takase look like Rickson? Will one manage to actually knock the other out?
First, a couple things that will NOT happen:
1) Henderson will not submit Anderson, nor Anderson Hendo
2) Anderson will not close the distance to initiate a clinch to deliver knees. He doesn't want Henderson to get his hands on him.
I expect Henderson will come in brawling, looking to smash Silva against the fence and dirty box. Anderson's elbows could give him a lot of trouble at this range, especially since most of Hendo's power is on the end of his punches. Nevertheless, Hendo will control this position and be able to drag him down and beat him up. I expect it to look a lot like Couture vs. Chuck I, with Hendo eating good shots as he brawls in, but eventually just manhandling Silva to exhaustion. Dan Henderson TKO's Silva Round 3
Humungus "expert" betting advice: With Henderson being a decent underdog, I had to bet on him. I think he is a narrow favorite, given the style matchup. I wouldn't suggest anyone bet on Silva, with the odds against the bet like that. I have money on Henderson.
Jorge Gurgel -215
John Halverson +175
I've never seen Halverson fight aside from being blitzed by Huerta, but he has a really astonishing KO rate (and a mediocre record). Gurgel used to be touted as the next big thing, but he's been exposed as a fighter that can't follow a gameplan or fight smart. He has skills, he has heart, and he's tough as nails, but he likes to eat punches to the face. He probably doesn't want to do that too much against someone with as much finishing ability as Halverson apparently has, but he's also probably tougher than anyone Halverson has ever fought. Gurgel will most likely make this more of a fight than it should be, and submit Halverson late in the 1st or midway through the second.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: I see no value in this line. Gurgel is enough of a tard to maybe lose to someone so beatable, but the odds reflect that. Gurgel might be underpriced, but I don't like betting on favorites, especially when they're as unpredictable as gurgel.
Andrei Arlovski -355
Jake OBrien +285
This fight is pretty interesting. It's been a while since we've seen Arlovski fight a strong wrestler. He shrugged off the janitor back in 2003, but he also outsized him, and Vladdy was going through his "has been" stage before he decided to become an "Is again" in the IFL. After seeing Heath Herring drop Jake early in their fight, I expect Arlovski will most likely pop the Irish Stallion a good one in this fight, and finish him off, snapping a pretty impressive undefeated streak. However, I'd be very curious to see how Arlovski handles being put on the matt and roughed up for a while. I don't think he'd take it well. Arlovski TKO round 1
Humungus "expert" betting advice: This line is kind of interesting because I think if Jake can out-wrestle arlovski (which I don't expect he'll readily be able to do) then he has a good chance of beating him. That said, Jake has questionable finishing ability when not fighting complete scrubs, and he's still a pretty unknown quantity, so I am hesitant to put any money on him.
Diego Sanchez -550
David Bielkheden +400
Mr. Bielkheden has a very spiffy pocket square;
However, I do not think he can wear it in the ring, so the spiffy swede is SOL. When one's only quality win is Charles McCartyh in 2004, Diego Sanchez is going to take you down and submit you or beat your face in, very quickly.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: Knowing how poor Diego's standup is, it's kinda tempting to put a few bucks down on such a massive underdog with KO power, but resistance to temptation is important. Diego is almost assuredly going to win, but betting on him would be idiocy at these odds.
Luke Cummo -160
Luigi Fioravanti +125
Close fight, hopefully we'll see some more crisp technical kickboxing from Cummo, who has developed some nasty power lately. Neither guy is a world-beater, but neither guy has a lot of embarassing losses either. I can't say I'm that fired up for this one. Cummo is most likely going to win by decision.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: Don't.
Jon Fitch -650
Chris Wilson +500
The difference here is experience. Fitch has been in with some of the top talent from this weightclass, and he's often emerged victorious. He hasn't had an easy fight. Until now. The best fighter Wilson has faced up until fitch is Nick Thompson, who finished him handily. Fitch will most likely do the same thing. Takedowns, grinding, abuse, until Wilson can't handle any more in the second round and gets finished.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: Wilson is such a longshot that it's tempting to bet on him on the off chance that he lands something really solid on fitch. Fitch is hittable and he's been KO'd before, so it's possible. At these odds, it's worth the money if you think Wilson wins 1/6 times. I don't think he does, though.
Chris Leben -160
Alessio Sakara +130
Sakara's chin would appear suspect, since he has been KO'd twice recently, but it's important to remember what happened in those fights. Houston drilled his grill with a brutal knee, and Mcfedries throws bombs like that's all he knows how to do. Which it is. In any case, entering the fight, Leben has more ways to win and more tools in his box, with his wrestling and submission skills in addition to his big right hand. If they just get into a standup exchange, Sakara's boxing SHOULD let him get the better of leben, but with leben's chin and power, he stands a chance in any brawl. If Leben comes in and fights smart, he'll control with wrestling and get an armbar midway through the fight. But 'smart' is a word rarely used to describe Chris Leben.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: If you believe in Sakara's hands AND think that Leben is going to be an idiot and try to just stand and bang all day, Sakara might not be a bad bet. Personally, I don't believe those things.
Cheick Kongo -170
Heath Herring +140
Heath Herring is the slop king. Kongo is the standup mandingo. Kongo's advantage is that he has an identifiable skill to threaten his opponent with. However, he also has glaring weaknesses. Herring's only weakness was the risk of his balls slipping out of his too-tiny fight shorts, which he has corrected by getting some proper pants. Heath doesn't have any readily identifiable dominant strengths, but he is competent in all areas, and brings a lot of hustle and toughness to his game. Herring needs this fight on the ground, and his wrestling is his weakest skill. However, Kongo's is very bad, and Herring can probably manage to drag him down eventually. While Heath did spend 10 minutes staring at Giant Silva before figuring out the freak was useless on the ground, I expect he'll be able to get Kongo to the ground and find a way to rough him up or submit him.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: I like heath in this fight. I think he's tough enough to fool around with Kongo for a while, and Kongo's utter uselessness on the ground even vs. Crocop make me think Heath will beat him up and twist his arms and suchlike. I have some money on Heath here.
Josh Koscheck -445
Dustin Hazelett +365
Losing to GSP doesn't mean you've fallen off. Koscheck still decides where he fights any fight he's in not involving french canadians. However, out-jabbing Diego "T-Rex Arms" Sanchez does not mean you're a dominant stand-up fighter. I don't know what kind of advantage Koscheck gains vs. Hazelett by forcing a standup fight, as Hazelett has hurt a few guys with his hands, and blown Chad Reiner's brains out in seven seconds with them. Hazelett is no mike tyson, but then again, neither is Koscheck. Coming into this fight, I see them pretty even on the feet.
On the ground, Koscheck's chances are much worse. Hazelett is a huge submission threat off his back, so Koscheck driving into a million takedowns for the decision takes a lot of risks of getting caught. Koscheck Handled Jeff Joslin for three rounds, but he was threatened several times, and I think Hazelett is more of a sub threat in MMA. He sees openings and he takes them. Koscheck will NOT be happy on top of Dustin Hazelett. Nor will he be happy with Dustin Hazelett transitions from a triangle to an armbar and taps out Koscheck in round 1.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: I think these odds are ridiculous. Hazelett is a huge underdog on the odds, and I think he's going to win the fight. Even if you don't think he's more likely to win, the odds are an even bet on Hazelett if you think he wins 1 in 5 times. I have money on Hazelett.
Yushin Okami -240
Evan Tanner +190
Welcome back Evan Tanner. Having been out for two years, it's very difficult to know what to expect from Evan. I'm going to do some more research into what's going on with his training and for how long he's been cleaned up and back into the game, and then I'll update this post with that information.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: At this point, betting on tanner is a total roll of the dice. That said, if he comes in like he did in top form years ago, he has the skills needed to beat someone as one-dimensional as Okami. Might be a good bet if you're a tanner believer.
Anderson Silva -170
Dan Henderson +140
This is going to be a very epic fight. Will Henderson be the lethal ball of fists he was vs. Rampage or Wanderlei (II) or will he windmill aimlessly and act like he has no concept of punching distance or footwork, like he did vs. Misaki? Will Anderson Silva actually go for a clinch? Will Anderson put on another virtuosic performance of perfectly lethal striking and focus, or will he drift away and become the same Silva that struggled with Ryo Chonan's standup and made Daiju Takase look like Rickson? Will one manage to actually knock the other out?
First, a couple things that will NOT happen:
1) Henderson will not submit Anderson, nor Anderson Hendo
2) Anderson will not close the distance to initiate a clinch to deliver knees. He doesn't want Henderson to get his hands on him.
I expect Henderson will come in brawling, looking to smash Silva against the fence and dirty box. Anderson's elbows could give him a lot of trouble at this range, especially since most of Hendo's power is on the end of his punches. Nevertheless, Hendo will control this position and be able to drag him down and beat him up. I expect it to look a lot like Couture vs. Chuck I, with Hendo eating good shots as he brawls in, but eventually just manhandling Silva to exhaustion. Dan Henderson TKO's Silva Round 3
Humungus "expert" betting advice: With Henderson being a decent underdog, I had to bet on him. I think he is a narrow favorite, given the style matchup. I wouldn't suggest anyone bet on Silva, with the odds against the bet like that. I have money on Henderson.
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