Jorge Gurgel -215
John Halverson +175
I've never seen Halverson fight aside from being blitzed by Huerta, but he has a really astonishing KO rate (and a mediocre record). Gurgel used to be touted as the next big thing, but he's been exposed as a fighter that can't follow a gameplan or fight smart. He has skills, he has heart, and he's tough as nails, but he likes to eat punches to the face. He probably doesn't want to do that too much against someone with as much finishing ability as Halverson apparently has, but he's also probably tougher than anyone Halverson has ever fought. Gurgel will most likely make this more of a fight than it should be, and submit Halverson late in the 1st or midway through the second.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: I see no value in this line. Gurgel is enough of a tard to maybe lose to someone so beatable, but the odds reflect that. Gurgel might be underpriced, but I don't like betting on favorites, especially when they're as unpredictable as gurgel.
Andrei Arlovski -355
Jake OBrien +285
This fight is pretty interesting. It's been a while since we've seen Arlovski fight a strong wrestler. He shrugged off the janitor back in 2003, but he also outsized him, and Vladdy was going through his "has been" stage before he decided to become an "Is again" in the IFL. After seeing Heath Herring drop Jake early in their fight, I expect Arlovski will most likely pop the Irish Stallion a good one in this fight, and finish him off, snapping a pretty impressive undefeated streak. However, I'd be very curious to see how Arlovski handles being put on the matt and roughed up for a while. I don't think he'd take it well. Arlovski TKO round 1
Humungus "expert" betting advice: This line is kind of interesting because I think if Jake can out-wrestle arlovski (which I don't expect he'll readily be able to do) then he has a good chance of beating him. That said, Jake has questionable finishing ability when not fighting complete scrubs, and he's still a pretty unknown quantity, so I am hesitant to put any money on him.
Diego Sanchez -550
David Bielkheden +400
Mr. Bielkheden has a very spiffy pocket square;
However, I do not think he can wear it in the ring, so the spiffy swede is SOL. When one's only quality win is Charles McCartyh in 2004, Diego Sanchez is going to take you down and submit you or beat your face in, very quickly.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: Knowing how poor Diego's standup is, it's kinda tempting to put a few bucks down on such a massive underdog with KO power, but resistance to temptation is important. Diego is almost assuredly going to win, but betting on him would be idiocy at these odds.
Luke Cummo -160
Luigi Fioravanti +125
Close fight, hopefully we'll see some more crisp technical kickboxing from Cummo, who has developed some nasty power lately. Neither guy is a world-beater, but neither guy has a lot of embarassing losses either. I can't say I'm that fired up for this one. Cummo is most likely going to win by decision.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: Don't.
Jon Fitch -650
Chris Wilson +500
The difference here is experience. Fitch has been in with some of the top talent from this weightclass, and he's often emerged victorious. He hasn't had an easy fight. Until now. The best fighter Wilson has faced up until fitch is Nick Thompson, who finished him handily. Fitch will most likely do the same thing. Takedowns, grinding, abuse, until Wilson can't handle any more in the second round and gets finished.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: Wilson is such a longshot that it's tempting to bet on him on the off chance that he lands something really solid on fitch. Fitch is hittable and he's been KO'd before, so it's possible. At these odds, it's worth the money if you think Wilson wins 1/6 times. I don't think he does, though.
Chris Leben -160
Alessio Sakara +130
Sakara's chin would appear suspect, since he has been KO'd twice recently, but it's important to remember what happened in those fights. Houston drilled his grill with a brutal knee, and Mcfedries throws bombs like that's all he knows how to do. Which it is. In any case, entering the fight, Leben has more ways to win and more tools in his box, with his wrestling and submission skills in addition to his big right hand. If they just get into a standup exchange, Sakara's boxing SHOULD let him get the better of leben, but with leben's chin and power, he stands a chance in any brawl. If Leben comes in and fights smart, he'll control with wrestling and get an armbar midway through the fight. But 'smart' is a word rarely used to describe Chris Leben.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: If you believe in Sakara's hands AND think that Leben is going to be an idiot and try to just stand and bang all day, Sakara might not be a bad bet. Personally, I don't believe those things.
Cheick Kongo -170
Heath Herring +140
Heath Herring is the slop king. Kongo is the standup mandingo. Kongo's advantage is that he has an identifiable skill to threaten his opponent with. However, he also has glaring weaknesses. Herring's only weakness was the risk of his balls slipping out of his too-tiny fight shorts, which he has corrected by getting some proper pants. Heath doesn't have any readily identifiable dominant strengths, but he is competent in all areas, and brings a lot of hustle and toughness to his game. Herring needs this fight on the ground, and his wrestling is his weakest skill. However, Kongo's is very bad, and Herring can probably manage to drag him down eventually. While Heath did spend 10 minutes staring at Giant Silva before figuring out the freak was useless on the ground, I expect he'll be able to get Kongo to the ground and find a way to rough him up or submit him.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: I like heath in this fight. I think he's tough enough to fool around with Kongo for a while, and Kongo's utter uselessness on the ground even vs. Crocop make me think Heath will beat him up and twist his arms and suchlike. I have some money on Heath here.
Josh Koscheck -445
Dustin Hazelett +365
Losing to GSP doesn't mean you've fallen off. Koscheck still decides where he fights any fight he's in not involving french canadians. However, out-jabbing Diego "T-Rex Arms" Sanchez does not mean you're a dominant stand-up fighter. I don't know what kind of advantage Koscheck gains vs. Hazelett by forcing a standup fight, as Hazelett has hurt a few guys with his hands, and blown Chad Reiner's brains out in seven seconds with them. Hazelett is no mike tyson, but then again, neither is Koscheck. Coming into this fight, I see them pretty even on the feet.
On the ground, Koscheck's chances are much worse. Hazelett is a huge submission threat off his back, so Koscheck driving into a million takedowns for the decision takes a lot of risks of getting caught. Koscheck Handled Jeff Joslin for three rounds, but he was threatened several times, and I think Hazelett is more of a sub threat in MMA. He sees openings and he takes them. Koscheck will NOT be happy on top of Dustin Hazelett. Nor will he be happy with Dustin Hazelett transitions from a triangle to an armbar and taps out Koscheck in round 1.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: I think these odds are ridiculous. Hazelett is a huge underdog on the odds, and I think he's going to win the fight. Even if you don't think he's more likely to win, the odds are an even bet on Hazelett if you think he wins 1 in 5 times. I have money on Hazelett.
Yushin Okami -240
Evan Tanner +190
Welcome back Evan Tanner. Having been out for two years, it's very difficult to know what to expect from Evan. I'm going to do some more research into what's going on with his training and for how long he's been cleaned up and back into the game, and then I'll update this post with that information.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: At this point, betting on tanner is a total roll of the dice. That said, if he comes in like he did in top form years ago, he has the skills needed to beat someone as one-dimensional as Okami. Might be a good bet if you're a tanner believer.
Anderson Silva -170
Dan Henderson +140
This is going to be a very epic fight. Will Henderson be the lethal ball of fists he was vs. Rampage or Wanderlei (II) or will he windmill aimlessly and act like he has no concept of punching distance or footwork, like he did vs. Misaki? Will Anderson Silva actually go for a clinch? Will Anderson put on another virtuosic performance of perfectly lethal striking and focus, or will he drift away and become the same Silva that struggled with Ryo Chonan's standup and made Daiju Takase look like Rickson? Will one manage to actually knock the other out?
First, a couple things that will NOT happen:
1) Henderson will not submit Anderson, nor Anderson Hendo
2) Anderson will not close the distance to initiate a clinch to deliver knees. He doesn't want Henderson to get his hands on him.
I expect Henderson will come in brawling, looking to smash Silva against the fence and dirty box. Anderson's elbows could give him a lot of trouble at this range, especially since most of Hendo's power is on the end of his punches. Nevertheless, Hendo will control this position and be able to drag him down and beat him up. I expect it to look a lot like Couture vs. Chuck I, with Hendo eating good shots as he brawls in, but eventually just manhandling Silva to exhaustion. Dan Henderson TKO's Silva Round 3
Humungus "expert" betting advice: With Henderson being a decent underdog, I had to bet on him. I think he is a narrow favorite, given the style matchup. I wouldn't suggest anyone bet on Silva, with the odds against the bet like that. I have money on Henderson.
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