Sam Stout vs. Rich Clementi

Clementi: +130
Stout: -160

What does Sam Stout bring that Anthony Johnson, Ross Pointon, or Melvin Guillard doesn't? Nothing. He will win a kickboxing match, but Clementi is tough and isn't dumb enough to go in and try to kickbox. I really don't understand this betting line at all. Clementi isn't going to be wearing a title belt anytime soon, but look at his record. His only losses in years are all to top level guys, who will reliably beat him, but also bring a well-rounded elite-level game into the octagon with them. Stout does not. He brings big punches and a good chin. That's not going to help against a submission wrestler. Clementi Submission round 1

I have money on Clementi at +140


Joe Doerksen vs. Jason MacDonald
MacDonald: -170
Doerksen: +140

Doerksen has been around a long time, and MacDonald is an up and comer. Macdonald has good submisison skills, very strong wrestling, and some power in his hands. Unless Doerksen can manage to be as dominant a wrestler as Yushin Okami or pound MacDonald as mercilessly as rich franklin did, Macdonald will knock him out again, even with his slow-mo punches.

I have money on Macdonald at -170


Jonathan Goulet vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Goulet: +190
Hironaka: -240


Goulet is the ultimate boom/bust fighter. I don't know if Hironaka has the tools or killer instinct to jump on the inevitable openings to finish him off, and I am always worried of Japanese fighters sleeping their way to decision loss in a slow, unaggressive technical standup fight. I don't know why it happens, but sometimes it does. That said, Hironaka SHOULDN'T lose here, because he can take what Goulet has to offer, and can threaten him in areas where Goulet is weak. Hironaka via submissions round 2.

Mark Bocek vs. Mac Danzig

Danzig: -475
Bocek: +375

A showpiece for Danzig. Bocek has the appearance of a threat because of his BJJ experience, but Danzig is a very strong grappler in his own right, and he's shown a variety of skills and great top control, so unless Bocek can put him on his back, Danzig will just show what he can do and win an impressive decision.


Ed Herman vs. Demian Maia
Demian Maia: -185
Ed Herman: +155

Ed Herman has very good grappling, although Maia should be favored there. I just expect that Herman's wrestling and his powerful hands should let him 'smash' any BJJ offense Demian tries to put together. This is a provisional pick, as I haven't watched enough tape on Demian. If I don't find any reason to change my mind, I will be putting money on Herman.


Brad Morris vs. Cain Velasquez
Morris: +175
Velasquez: -215

Noob heavyweights, who cares? Not me. Bet on the underdog if you must, because heavyweights are sloppy like that.

Jason Day vs. Alan Belcher

Belcher: -345
Day: +275

If you haven't seen it, go back and watch Belcher's fight with Kalib Starnes. He beat starnes like a slave, even doing the old Ray Sefo "take it and smile". Belcher has some very nice crisp Muay Thai, with good head movement, although he seems to get hit a lot while trading. If he keeps that up, eventually someone will tag him a good one and put him to sleep, but I don't think Day is the man to do it. While Day is coming off his biggest win (split decision over a sleepwalking David Loiseau) I fully expect Belcher to come in and smash "Dooms"Day's brains all over the canvas. He deserves it for that nickname.


Nate Quarry vs. Kalib Starnes
Starnes: +225
Quarry: -285

Both of these guys looked like shit in their last fights. Quarry was a punching bag for Pete Sell, which is never a good sign when you're a standup-only threat. Starnes looked like a whipped dog whenever Belcher or Leben hit him, although when he wasn't cringing like a little girl, he showed some good offense on the feet, and of course his grappling is on point. I don't think Quarry has the speed or technique to just overwhelm Starnes like those two did, and I don't think he has the athleticism of Belcher or the combination of wrestling and grappling that leben has. Starnes is a threat when he can control the fight and force work on the ground, and I think he can use his length to defend against Quarry and maybe work a little standup to wear the guy down. This fight will end as a blowout, either with Quarry making Starnes crap his pants trying to cower away from his abuser again, or with Starnes dominating position and submitting Quarry. I think Starnes has it.

I have money on Starnes at +265


Rich Franklin vs. Travis Lutter

There's no reason to give Lutter a shot here. He's looked more dangerous with his submissions than ever before, but Franklin is still rich Franklin. Everyone is thinking back to the armlock Okami nearly had on Franklin. I have news for you--Okami didn't finish it, and he has monster wrestling (to put franklin on his back) godzilla strength (to force Franklin's arms around like that, and to just force a sub) and very good defense on the feet (to hang with Franklin that long). Not to mention Okami's athleticism and conditioning. Lutter has none of that, just ugly facial hair. If Franklin comes in with his shoes tied together and falls flat on his back, maybe Lutter can crawl onto him and work his top game and submit, but barring that, Franklin is just going to hammer him to a stoppage. If Lutter isn't spark-out by the end of round 1, I'll be surprised, but his cardio will die and he'll get ground to a TKO in round 2.

Michael Bisping vs. Charles McCarthy
McCarthy: +290
Bisping: -350

McCarthy has a very dangerous offensive submission game, although he can get caught as well. Bisping has phenomenal sub defense, pretty good offensive submissions and sweeps, workable wrestling/takedown defense, and a very dangerous standup game. I expect Bisping to just fight this like a kickboxing match, scoring points and working for the judges. Bisping Unanimous Decision.

Matt Serra vs. Georges St. Pierre

GSP: -500
Serra: +400

Serra is the worst/weakest UFC champion in a LONG time, in my opinion. He shouldn't have been in the octagon with GSP in the first place, and, while he beat GSP with the exact same punch that he nearly killed Karo Parisyan with, GSP shouldn't have let him land it. Serra's putative strength is his ground game, but he has not shown much ability to threaten with is in MMA. Now, if GSP has a weakness (aside from speculative mental weaknesses) it's guys that just come in and beat him up. It puts him on the back foot and messes his day up. The prototypical example is BJ vs. GSP round 1. BJ just came in and hammered him, and GSP couldn't deal with it. That said, GSP should be safe as can be in Serra's guard, so if he comes in and fights smart, he'll drive the world's hardest double leg every time Serra comes in tossing hammers. If he does this for three rounds, Serra will be absolutely spent and GSP can prop him up and kick his head off like a Tee-Ball. GSP also has the power in his strikes to finish Serra at any other time, but I don't think he'll be comfortable at all trading with the Manhattan midget, so expect the takedowns. Serra is tough, but his gas is poor, so GSP by TKO or Submission in the 4th.

I have money on Serra at +400, because those are ludicrous odds. Serra may not be a standup expert, but, since he landed the same punch (to almost the same effect) on Karo, I don't think it's impossible that he does the same thing again. Combine that with the amount of pressure GSP is under, and the generally good performance of underdogs in UFC title fights, and I'll take Serra at +400 all day.