Picks and Predictions for Bushido 13
Denis Kang vs. Akihiro Gono

Many are counting Gono down and out in this fight, and, admittedly, Kang has been stomping through this tournament while Gono has barely squeaked by his opposition. However, I do not expect Kang to be able to annihilate Gono as easily as many predict. Akihiro has been fighting for longer than almost anyone else in this sport, and that kind of experience can either break a man down (Paging Ken Shamrock), or give him a wealth of experience and craft that makes him a dangerous opponent for anyone. Gono falls into the latter category, so he’s going to put up a solid fight. That said, his sit-and-wait striking style has brought him trouble in his last several fights, and I expect a strong explosive striker like Kang will keep increasing the pressure, and not let Gono come into his own. On the ground, this fight should be a wash, while standing I expect Kang to dominate unless Gono has a sneaky counter to Kang’s style prepared. Look for a battered Gono to run from Kang until the final bell, barring Kang gassing out. Kang by Decision



Misaki is a very impressive striker, with a huge variety of techniques he can employ in a number of styles. His fights with Dan Henderson and Baroni opened a lot of eyes. Too bad none of this matters. Filho is going to pin him to the floor in about 30 seconds, and then, depending on a pre-match coin flip, either armbar him for mount, or ride to a unanimous decision. Given Misaki’s grappling experience, the armbar is slightly less likely. Filho by decision.

Nobuhiro Obiya vs. Luiz "Buscape" Firmino

Obiya is coming off losing his undefeated streak in what must have been a confidence-shattering mauling at the hands of Gil Melendez. Buscape is currently competing with Shaolin Ribeiro for the title of “most underutilized talent at lightweight”. Barring huge amounts of ring-rust, Buscape should be able to beat up a unconfident Obiya, but I don’t expect a finish, given Obiya’s lasting power and Buscape’s inactivity. Buscape by decision.

Murilo Bustamente vs. Yoon Dong Sik
Dong needs to have a T-shirt. I would buy it in a second, and buy more for my mom for Christmas. Busta is a tough competitor and a gritty veteran, but I don’t really see him caring about any of his fights lately. Dong has had a really rough road to hoe lately, but after his embarrassing loss to Sakuraba, proved he had what it took in taking a massive beating from Quinton Jackson. Bustamante has two options in this fight, he can force a ground war and probably submit the Judoka, or he can prance around and pick at dong, give him a black eye, and win a decision. Bustamante by submission Round 1


Ikuhisa Minowa vs. Mike Burton

Minowa once again showing he is the hardest working man in the business, Bart Gunn was nearly decapitated by butterbean and has now come back for some sort of weird reverse-revenge meta-vendetta by facing the last man to beat the bean. Whatever, couldn’t this have stopped after pride 2? Minowa by submission (paycheck) round 1

Takanori Gomi vs. Marcus Aurelio

Aurelio shouldn’t have beat Gomi, which is why it was a non-title fight. But he did, but then he shouldn’t have fought Ishida, as the title picture was somewhat clouded. But he did, and he lost. So now we have this wonderful situation, where Aurelio’s claim to the throne is questionable at best, coming off a very clear defeat, and even if Gomi wins here, his belt will remain tarnished until he KO’s that boyscout-looking T-blood coach. Ugly, that is. In his last fight, Gomi looked like he was about to vomit everytime he was on the ground. In his last fight, Aurelio looked like he’d be lucky to remember what his name was. If Gomi sticks to what made him champion, tight boxing and great wrestling, he should make this a painful and frustrating fight for Maximus. If Gomi tries to channel Ishida and GnP his way to victory like he did against Jean Silva, he’s going to get his arm broken. Aurelio may be big enough, but I don’t think he has the technique to force a ground fight. I expect failed takedowns, and then for him to get that Mark Coleman vs. Crocop “I want to fight on the ground but you’re not letting me” look in his eyes, get punched in the gut then the face, and fall over. Gomi by KO round 1.

Gegard Mousasi vs. Hector Lombard

What is this, the “I lost to gono” special? Both of these men nearly blew Gono out of the water in the early going of their fights with him, only to lose to what amounted to his craftiness and staying power. Both had glaring weaknesses in the fight too; Lombard wasting energy like he’d been coached by Alistair Overeem, and Gegard looking hopeless on the ground. What impressed was Gegard’s striking and Hectors power, aggressiveness, and wrestling/groundwork. Matching those facts up, means that Hector, barring another gas attack, is going to throw Gegard to the ground, and beat him up/submit him. Lombard by submission round 1.


Sanae Kikuta vs. Jean Francois Lenogue

Lenogue gets submitted a lot. Kikuta is good at submissions. Kikuta gets KO’d by people who rarely drop someone, like Minotauro and Yuki Kondo. I don’t expect a decision. When one fighter doesn’t have a ground game and isn’t a top wrestler, and the other one is an experienced fighter with a good ground game, you know what happens. Kikuta by submission.

Mitsuhiro Ishida vs. David Bielkheden

In case you’re wondering, yes, Ishida is fighting another jiu-jitsu guy. Just like he has for almost his entire career. As such, we know what to expect here. David is not Shaolin, and, although big for this weight class, he is not Marcus Aurelio either. Ishida will takedown, GnP. Stay, active, keep up the hustle, show that he’s unsubmitable, and make David suffer for his loser’s paycheck. Ishida by decision.

Yoshihiro Maeda vs. Joe Pearson

I really suspect Pride is considering opening up a featherweight division in Bushido, and this is yet another ‘tester’ fight, to build a relationship with the fighters and get them some face time in front of the fans. Maeda is a (at one time rare, but now increasingly common) Japanese KO machine, while Pearson is a (at one time rare, but now increasingly common) American submission machine. I suspect Maeda has been around the block enough to avoid the ground, and just punish the limited Pearson on the feet. Neither of these guys likes to go the distance. Maeda by KO round 1.

Shinya Aoki vs. Clay French

I was really looking forward to seeing Aoki and Melendez go at it. However, last-minute injuries are the reality in the fight game, so we’re being treated to what amounts to an exhibition of Aoki’s talents. Look for him to try (again) to show us a submission that’s never been used in Pride before. This time with less loud tights. Aoki by flying submission, round 1.

Of course, in the finals, my expectations would leave Kang vs. Filho, wherein filho would handily pin him to the floor and rape him. Filho wins this GP easily, no matter who he faces. If Misaki makes it to the finals, he’ll beat Kang. If it’s an all-GRABAKA finals, who knows if they’ll fight, or spar, or put on a grappling exhibition.

“Lock” Order – most certainty first, least certainty last.
Minowa by submission (paycheck) round 1
Aoki by flying submission, round 1.
Ishida by decision.
Maeda by KO round 1.
Filho by decision.
Buscape by decision.
Kikuta by submission round 1.
Gomi by KO round 1.
Kang by Decision
Lombard by submission round 1.
Bustamante by submission Round 1