Alan Belcher vs. Yushin Okami

Japanese in the UFC are like Koreans in Pride: not meant to last. That said, I don’t think Okami is going to “put over” Belcher here. Belcher is a finisher when he fights totally inexperienced fighters below his level, but he has trouble with fighters like Buck Meredith and Marvin Eastman. Okami has fought more and tougher opponents, and has never been stopped with strikes either (barring his unfortunate “win” over Anderson Silva). Okami doesn’t have killer instinct and Belcher is most likely bigger than he is, so he might throw the fight away to a big shot late in the match, but I expect him to pull this one out in an unremarkable fight. Basically the Japanese circuits are superior to the low-level American ones. Okami by decision.


Wilson Gouveia vs. Wes Combs

Combs has a much more impressive-looking record here, stopping a huge number of fighters in under 2 minutes. However those opponents are frequently stopped in the first round. Gouveia has won far fewer fights, but has fought more talent than Combs. Look for combs to come out blasting early in the first, gas, and be TKO’d on the ground. Gouveia by TKO in the 1st

David Heath vs. Cory Walmsley

Here was have more impressive records, Heath being undefeated. Similar level of opponents, but Walmsley hasn’t been in a fight for almost two years. Heath is going to GnP him into a submission in the second. Heath by submission/tko in the 2nd

Rob Macdonald vs. Eric Schafer

Rule of thumb: when 3 of a fighter’s teammates have recently been on PPVs, and his opponent is new to the organization and not with a big team, he’s being set up to win and win big. Eric has an okay record but can’t get it going when he faces someone with a winning record. Rob is being gifted here, look for a smash. Macdonald submits Schafer round 1.

Nick Diaz vs. Josh Neer

Usually a late replacement is some random guy from the weightclass below you. In this case, it’s a scrapper with all the pent-up rage of a 15 year old who just got his homework thrown in the mud by the school bully. Plus serious BJJ credentials. Diaz is pissed to be alive, and he’s going to smash Neer, submitting him if he can get the fight where he wants it, and knocking him down if he can’t. Nick Diaz submits Neer round 2

Hermes Franca vs. Jamie Varner

When the UFC actually lays out money to aquire a talented property, they do one of two things. They either immediately put the guy against another popular UFC fighter, for the ‘instant street cred’ of crushing a TUF guy (Anderson Silva) or to boost that TUF fighter’s reputation should they beat the known talent (Yves Edwards vs Stevenson). The second option is they slowly feed the guy better and better throwaway fighters (Joe Jordan and now Jamie Varner) until he is clearly a top contender for the division. Varner has a good record but Franca is one of the best in the division. Franca defeats Varner by decision.


Cheick Kongo vs. Christian Wellisch

Don’t bet against a dutch striker vs an American kickboxer. This should be an exciting fight until Christian gets kicked in the face and falls over. Kongo KO’s Wellisch 1st round.

Forrest Griffen vs. Stephan Bonnar

Well, it’s a revenge match and their last match was a standup slugfest. Both of them are extreme company men, so look for them to try to emulate it for the first round at least. Both of them are durable and only Forrest has knockout power and only then when he really winds up and bombs it, and Bonnar is a good enough boxer to not get hit by any of Griffen’s knockout bombs, so expect it to last at least into the second. If someone is badly cut by then, or otherwise obviously losing the brawl, look for a change in gameplan. Bonner can’t stop Griffen on the feet, and I don’t think he has what it takes to get the fight on the ground and end it there. Forrest is going to come close to finishing him, but I don’t know if he’ll have what it takes to do it. Forrest defeats Bonnar by decision.

Chuck Liddell vs. Renato Sobral


Babalu has what it takes to beat Chuck, but the question is will he be able to? A lot of people forget Babalu is a monster wrestler, which he’s going to have to rely on to win the fight. Chuck’s obviously the favorite, but I think that his luck is going to run out. Ou can only fight so many top guys without losing to one of them. Babalu is going to last until the later rounds, and Chuck’s going to slow down. The question will be whether Babalu is totally ruined in the face by then. If he is, he’s going to die out in the 5th round and get stopped. If Bablu can make it into later in the fight without being too crushed up, he’s going to beat Chuck by managing to take him down and working his voodoo. Babalu submits Chuck Liddell round 4.