PRIDE 32 Picks and Predictions

Prides newest event is having some serious troubles, with visas, contract disputes, and other last minute shuffling that has taken at least one very interesting match off the card.

Kazuhiro Nakamuro vs. Travis Galbraith
The fact that he's still under contract to the WFA has pulled Marvin the Beastman Eastman off of the real deal card, to be replaced on short notice by a KOTC standout who usually fights at 185, and has lost when he's fought top fighters at that weight. Nakamura often fights at heavyweight and is extremely versatile.

Great.

Nakamura is going to take him down and beat him up, either scoring a TKO or beating him until he gives up a submission. Nakamura by TKO.

Butterbean vs. Sean O'Haire
What was previously a fun match-up between Mark Hunt and an American no one cared about who would put on a good show has become a match between two Americans no one cares about. I can't believe I"m saying this, but look for Butterbean to gas Sean O'Haire out, and for him to give the big boy the same treatment he gave Bart Gunn back at wrestlmania. Butterbean by head removal KO round 1.

Phil Baroni vs Yosuke Nishijima
Baroni's pride is going to be biting his ass in this one, telling him to stand up and knockout the foreigner in front of the hometown crowd. Fortunately Mark Coleman will be in his corner, telling him to take Yosuke down to the ground where he's useless. Given the relative talent involved, we may see Baroni bust out a submission, but I expect brutal GNP. Baroni TKO Round 1.

Joey Villasenor vs. Robbie Lawler
This is one of three matches on the card that is actually competitive and has any importance for the division. Joey is a very strong finisher, mostly with striking, but his GnP will be weakened without elbows on the ground. Lawler's wrestling and physical power should allow him to control where this fight takes place, and I expect his striking ability will let him but the hurt on the more versatile Villasenor.
Robbie Lawler by KO round 2

Dan Henderson vs. Vitor Belfort
When people expect a fight to be a "mental battle" this is rarely what they're thinking of. However, this fight is going to come down to the minds of the fighters involved. I may have watched too many fights that happened in 2000 or before, but I believe Vitor can knockout Henderson, no matter how good his chin is, at any point. However, I expect Vitor to lose focus and just aimlessly watch himself get his ass kicked. On the other hand, Henderson may choose to pointlessly windmill his right arm the entire fight until he gets caught by Vitor.

That said, Henderson has his head screwed on tighter, so he should turn this into a grinding fight that crushes Vitor's will to fight with greco and clinchfighting. Henderson by decision.

Josh Barnett vs. Pawel Nastula
Barnett's performance in the OWGP oepened a lot of eyes not previously familiar with the big dork. Nastula is a gentleman, a true sportsman, and a tough competitor. He has a natural ability for GnP, and his judo skills will give most grapplers a hard time. If he had been more carefully groomed, he could be a top guy in either heavyweight or lightheavy, too bad he's being used as a "impressive win" for half the top guys in the division.

All of that aside, Barnett is going to control the location and pace of this fight, and should finish Nastula with some naughty pounding from back mount. Barnett by TKO round 2.

Mauricio Rua vs. Kevin Randleman
After Randleman's impressive win over Ninja, I"m sure Shogun will be happy to get some revenge. For his sake, I hope he's watched that tape and prepared for Randleman's speed and power. After the Coleman and Overeem fights, it's clear that Shogun has no chance of stopping Randleman's takedowns when he's still fresh, but with Shogun's extremely active guard, he's the more dangerous fighter in any position. Randleman has a real shot at winning this, by landing a huge bomb on the feet or after a takedown, but his generally poor finishing ability is going to give shogun a LOT of time to come up with a submission or land a headkick that drops the wrestler. Shogun by KO (headkick) round 1.

Fedor Emelianenko vs Mark Coleman
Coleman is a freak. That's the only way to describe the kind of threat he presents. He's not a well-rounded fighter, but nobody can out-wrestle him. Fedor's takedowns from the clinch are impressive, but Coleman is still going to throw him around like a rag doll. The biggest chance Coleman has in this fight is if (as I expect he may) he takes Fedor's back as Fedor tries to fight off a takedown. Coleman has the power and control to avoid the submission or reversal, if he keeps a cool head and doesn't gas.

But this is mark coleman we're talking about. Fedor by submission (armbar) round 2.

"Lock" Order
Nakamura by TKO round 1.
Baroni TKO Round 1.
Fedor by submission (armbar) round 2.
Butterbean by head removal KO round 1.
Henderson by decision.
Shogun by KO (headkick) round 1.
Robbie Lawler by KO round 2

UFC 64 Picks and Predictions

Kurt Pellegrino and Assuncao may not be hoary veterens in the MMA world, but both of them have been competing at a top level in other venues for yars. Despite leading off the night, this should be a close and technical match, on the matt. Pellegrino should be able to use his superior wrestling to dominate position and submit, but Junior is no slouch. Pellegrino by submission round 2


Clayton Guida may not be the best in the world, but he's an incredible talent. He should be able to dominate this fight, Guida submits James round 1.

I don't understand the Okami vs. Kalib fight. the UFC doesn't really care about promoting Japanese fighters, especially not by giving them wins over TUFers. I suspect that they know something I don't and Kalib is going to surprise me and beat Okami. That said, I can only pick based upon what I DO know, so I say Okami decisions Kalib.

Keith Jardine is ugly as sin, just like Nickel's standup. From looking at them, I"m surprised these two are even in the same weight class. Jardine is going to throw off any wrestling attempts by Nickels, and work him standing. Jardine by TKO in the first.

Spencer fisher is being given a stepping stone here. Several of his wins are more impressive than Lauzon's entire career. I expect Lauzon to continue to try to drag the fight to the ground, only to get beat up by Fisher. Fisher by KO round 1.

Kongo is huge and exciting. He should be able to KO his opponent here, but from the ground skills he's shown me, he can lose at any time if it goes to the mat. With his athleticism though, I think Kongo can avoid this and march to victory. Kongo by KO round 1.

Hironaka is goign to upset Fitch. Hironaka by decision.

Sean Sherk is a wrestling monster and should be very powerful for the LW division. Florian may look like a Wendy's cashier and have gotten lucky several times in the octagon, but the skills he has are real. That said, Sherk should be able to throw him around and rough him up badly. I would laugh to see the faces of the anti-TUF crowd if Florian can slap on a sub, since sherk is still questionable at the very-top level, but I don't think Florian will be the one to expose him. Sherk by TKO gnp round 1.

Rich has two advantages over Silva. First, he should be the much bigger man, as he is with most in the division. Secondly, he should have the edge in wrestling. How much of an edge is what's going to decide the winner of this fight, in my mind. Rich's best bet is if he comes out and can show some great GnP. He's not going to submit Anderson, and I doubt he's going to be able to drop him with strikes. If Rich wants to win, it's going to have to be by muscling anderson around until time is up or he's worn him down and out. Anderson has the skills to finish this fight on the feet, but it's going to be hard with someone the caliber of Rich. If rich gets duped into kickboxing with Anderson, he's going to go down hard. This fight is going to be very rough, no matter who wins. Anderson Silva by TKO round 3.

Ken Shamrock is the only man Ortiz has finished in years. Don’t look for this trend to change. Ken has shown evidence of becoming chinny in his last couple of fights, and doesn’t have any skill that can be a threat from Ortiz aside from mediocre boxing. Unless tito gets retarded and eats a shot, Ken is going to be hurt badly, again. Tito TKO Round 2.

Chris Price has a nice record, but Kendall Grove has fought better opposition and is being set up to win. Kendall should wrestle him to the ground from the clinch, and submit him there. Grove by sub round 1.

Jason McDonald is in over his head vs. Ed Herman. Jason has had a lot of fights and is a solid fighter, but he doesn’t have what it takes to be a top-tier competitor. Ed is going to grind him down with slow gnp, until he either rolls into the RNC, or the fight has to be stopped. Herman submission round 1.

Matt Hamill is a monster. His physical strength is exceeded only by his wrestling ability, so he is getting the takedown in his fight with Seth Petruzelli. However, seth has dealt with being on the bottom, having fought much larger men for most of his career. His striking is also light-years ahead of anything Matt has shown. Matt is such a developing talent, it’s dangerous to assume anything about what abilities he has now, but I have to go with what he’s shown. If Seth can avoid brutal GnP early in the fight, he should be able to wear Matt down on his feet and eventually drop him. Petruzelli by KO in the 2nd.

Nathan Marquardt is a methodical technical fighter who has submitted almost half of his opponents, and has been in with the best. Crafton Wallace has rarely been outside of the first round, and both of his losses come from submissions. Do the math. Marquardt by submission round 2.

Dustin Hazelett and Tony DeSouza should put on an exciting grappling show. In such cases, it’s good form to bet on the brazillian. DeSouza by sub round 2.

Rory Singer and Josh Haynes are both limited fighters, but they should put on an exciting fight. I expect Haynes’ brawling and toughness to make this a hard night for Rory, with him losing to accumulated damage and gas in the second. Haynes by TKO in the 2nd.

After hiding behind his jab for 3 roudns vs. Diego Sanchez, Alessio is going to have to step up his game to beat Thiago Alves. With his wrestling and jab, he should be able to do it. Alessio by submission round 2, after hurting him with punches.

Forrest Petz nearly killed Sam Morgan at the last UFN, but seemed to lack the aggression or fear the ground so much that he would not move in and finish. He should be able to correct that this time around, as Davis is not a world-beater, although he’s been very active this year. Petz by KO round 2.

“Lock” Order – Most certain outcomes, in decreasing order of certainty
Tito TKO Shamrock Round 2 (Sorry Ken)
Marquardt Submits Wallace round 2
Ed Herman submits McDonald round 1
Kendall Grove submits Chris Price round 1
Petruzelli KO’s Hamill round 2
Petz KO’s Davis round 2
Haynes TKO’s Singer round 2
Alessio submits Alves round 2
DeSouza submits Hazelett round 2