Organizations in Trouble

Both the major orgs are in some degree of trouble. The UFC is facing attacks on all sides, from ICON in Hawaii, the IFL, the WFA, just to name the organizations buying up fighters that the UFC has spent money developing and promoting. Pride isn't bleeding fighters (the losses of Sakuraba and Rampage aside) and its pockets are still deep, but the loss of their cable contract in Japan is serious business. Today I plan to look at the model each business is using in these troubled times.

Revenues for the UFC are exploding, between TUF, UFN, whatever is going on with HBO, and an increased number of PPVs and growing PPV buys, monopoly rents are coming in like there's no tomorrow. Much of this money is surely going to grease the wheels of further deals, and more promotion, but some of it is getting kicked back to the fighters.

Rival leagues in sports cause this. When the UFC was the only game in town, they could pay whatever they wanted because they were the only ones hiring fighters. Just like baseball's reserve clause, when one has an effective monopoly in a sport's top league, profits go primarily to the owner of the league/team. When players gain power because they can switch to another league/team, prices don't go up (despite the claims of every baseball team owner in existence) the owners just get a smaller share of the profit pie. The prices are invariant here because they've already been set to maximize profit, the only thing that changes is the power relationship between the players and the owner.

That's why the UFC's solution to their problem is so interesting. A fighter like Chris Leben 2 years ago has no power over the UFC, sure he's a solid fighter and a rival league would be happy to have him, but they're not going to get into a bidding war for him. A fighter like Chuck Liddell or Randy Couture, however, did have this power. TUF means that Forrest Griffen sells like Couture. The UFC has created a two-tiered system this way. Couture, Ortiz, Liddell, these guys are getting paid big money contracts, as they'd be paid in any other organization, because that's what they're worth. They have huge drawing power created by their skills, and the UFC has to hold on to them. The odd part is the aforementioned drawing power of Griffen. Forrest is a product, not of his own skill, but of the TUF fighter machine. I'm not decrying his skills, but he is what he is today because he signed the dotted line and the UFC put their machine behind him. The key thing here is his signing on the dotted line. Forrest is a steal now. The guy is getting paid less than what Matt Lindland was being paid, per fight, with that “six figure” retainer spread over 3 years, and he's as big as Ortiz.

We all know that the UFC has many of these guys set up, and it has its hooks in deep with all of them. It owns these guys, and its banking on them for its future. Sure it's bringing in free agent lightweights, a weight class chronically underpaid in every organization, and I'm not going to talk about the heavyweight division, because there might be children reading, but the UFC is dropping Ivan Salaverry and Matt Lindland and replacing them with Nate Quarry and Chris Leben. Another factor worth considering is the reject TUF guys. Bobby Southworth, Lodune Sincaid, half the IFL. All these guys are getting face time and drawing (some) buys for other organizations, on the UFC's promotional dime.

Will reality television really bring in new stars for the UFC, or two years from now will we have the hardest working crew of contenders lining up to get knocked out by millionaire champions, for 6,000 to show. Of course, Rich Franklin will only be halfway through his contract by then, so he'll still be earning less than Mayhem Miller is getting to fight for Hawaiian crowds. I guess we'll have to wait for the proof to come out.

Pride doesn't bleed fighters a) because they have more money and b) because they rehab their fighters in-house. Ivan Salaverry lose on national TV? Toss him out on his ear, if he wins in other people's promotions, Dana White will consider bringing him back. Same with Baroni, Robbie Lawler, Nick Diaz, etc. Crocop get his ego hurt by Kevin Randleman? Pride gives him some pro-wrestlers (or the ever-durable kanehara) in a Bushido show. Granted, Pride USA seems to have chased off Rampage and Bas, but I'm pretty sure Sakuraba was whisked away on a flying carpet of yen notes in large denominations. Prides' problem is needing to make up for the loss of revenue from their missing PPV contract, without cutting production values too much.

The solution: raid shooto hardcore and sell Bushido. What do Japanese fans like more than japanese pro-wrestlers or judo players? Japanese fighters that have the skills to embarrass foreigners and be champions. Meaning the lower weight classes. It's cheap too, despite being the most professionally-run MMA organization in the world, Shooto isn't overflowing with cash. Gilbert Melendez was paid $3,500 for his win over Naoya Uematsu, and he was the number one contender. His, and other recent signings point towards Pride playing around with the idea of an official 143lb weight class through superfights at contract weights lower than 160, much as happened in the early Bushido shows prior to the codification of the weight classes.

For Pride, the question is whether the smaller Japanese fighters can draw big. Despite the incredible quality of the Bushido cards, more fans buy tickets to see the thundering heavyweights. Will Japanese blood outweigh foreign mass?

My only prediction is that we're in for a serious out-of-the-ring bloodbath on America's west coast. As fans, we can only hope it leads to more fights and more cooperation between top leagues.

WFA: King of the Streets, Lessons Learned

Any serious MMA fan looks not just at the results of an event, but at what each performance means for the future of the fighter and the fight game in his weight class. Thus, I am going to make this a regular series after I'm able to complete each event.

The Event: The sound quality (and lack of commentary) during the fighter walk-ins was jarringly like watching one of those youtube videos of Jens Pulver filmed by Eddie Pulver in the stands at Cattle Congress: Extreme Cagefighting, but production values were okay other than that. It was very pleasant to hear the fight professor's velvety voice again. Goldberg is okay for some color once he loosens up, and the third man is obviously an excellent commentator with no MMA experience. Hopefully Quadros can hang with those guys and bring them up to speed and they could form the best announcing team in MMA. (Hardly a feat). The ring announcer guy is forgetable, but Bruce Buffer has just been pounded into my skull through repetition.

I can't commentate on the dark matches as I don't exactly get press passes right now, but a first round knockout is always nice. The Beastman isn't the greatest fighter in the world but he always shows up to fight and is genuinely pissed about it too. Someone should really have the Beastman fight James Irvin as the first live fight on a PPV card. The UFC absolutely wasted Irvin giving him the matchups they did. 1-dimensional striker vs. wrestler? Come on, give us 1-dimensional striker vs. brawler, nothing like seeing a clean knockout by two guys who aren't anywhere near title contention just to get the juices flowing.

Razor Rob McCullough over Harris Sarmiento by Decision (Leg Kicks)

155 is the most stacked division in MMA right now, with Shooto, Pride, K-1 Heroes, and the UFC all churning out awesome talents. Rob's striking was incredibly sharp here, although he did play it safe, he's at the stage where he needed a win and he was really beating his man up and moving forward almost the entire fight. Harris didn't do anything so the knockout didn't come to Rob, and chasing it would have been foolish. Find a brawler and match him with Rob and you're going to see a great match.

Ricco “Meatloaf” Rodriguez def. Ron “Really Strong” Waterman TKO (right hand bombs X 20)

Ricco was never an incredible athlete. He was extremely skilled. Now he's really fat. Waterman is really strong (I'm still horrified by the kimura he put on Randleman). Apparently now Waterman is also slower than Sakuraba after a tussle with Wanderlei. Ricco showed he still refuses to train properly for a fight, and Waterman can't make any kind of reaction until after the punch has landed and Ricco has stepped away. At first I thought Waterman was just being a tough guy and eating punches Mark Hunt style but he really just couldn't react to Ricco's speed. That's right the Ricco who was surprised when he weighed in at 298lbs and said “Hey, I lost weight.” Was too fast for Waterman. On a side note, Ricco's flying knee could have killed a man, what with 1200 quarter pounders (with cheese and extra pickles) behind it. This fight had all the depth of a UFC Heavyweight division fight.

Ivan Salaverry def. Art Santore KO (ninja skills)

Art couldn't hit Ivan in this match. Ivan used distance and footwork worth of an olympic fencer to prevent anything from touching his weird-looking head, while peppering Art with all manner of strikes. Ivan is really someone the UFC should not have let go, and they aren't going to get him back unless they start a bidding war with the WEC. For information on bidding wars in rival leagues, refer to chapter 8 of Pay Dirt by Quirk and Fort. Ivan made a talented fighter look awful here, as he tends to do when he wins. He kept plugging away with those awkward high kicks until he snuck one in, only to follow it with a very nice combo. Ivan is a competent, skilled striker with excellent footwork. He's not going to outstrike the best strikers in his division, but he can most likely outgrapple them if he can take it to the ground. Santore has the limited boxing skills of Dan Henderson without the killer instinct, tougher-than-nails body, and lead right hand to make up for it on the feet.

Jason Miller def Lodune Sincaid Submission (banana slamma)

Jason Miller has several screws loose, and he's great to watch. The UFC paid him 2,000 bucks to get his face turned inside out by GSP, and cut him loose. If they want to do a successful show in Hawaii they're going to have to shell two hundred times that much to get him back. Smart move Dana. In this fight, Lodune seemed confused by what was happening to him, much as I imagine many of Miller's dates in highschool felt. I doubt Miller opened those dates with a chute-boxe impression followed by a back-mount bonanza. Miller may not be the absolute top of his division (whatever division that IS, Joe Riggs Junior) but he's a big draw, a surefire entertainer, and hardcore fans approve of him more than Tank Abbot and Ken Shamrock combined. Although I will never tire of seeing Tank KO'd or subbed. Paging James Irvin.

Ryoto Machida def Vernon “Tiger” White decision (Shotokan Side Stance)

Ryoto was born to a karate master and put in a time capsule at the age of 17, then emerged to fight journeyman Vernon White with a classic side-stance karate style. Whereas Ivan Salaverry nimbly pranced out of all harms way, Ryoto kept his hands low, dropped both hands whenever he threw anything, and simply ran away from the slower Tiger whenever he tried something. Ryoto mixed it up with what is apparently his money punch, a blindingly fast straight left. To finish or hurt Vernon he was going to have to really beat on the man, and that wasn't going to happen. Vernon looked tough and game, but wasn't aggressive enough to force the Karate Master to get anything started, mostly seeming confused and unable to effectively land.

Bas Rutten def Replacement Fighter TKO (paycheck)

Warpath entered this fight afraid, and took shots to the face in the way only a pro-wrestler can. He knew he'd done his job and laid down once he really started to get a beating. Bas looked very sharp and powerful, but with the injuries he got just training for this fight, he might really need to fight off his incredible warriors spirit and sit back in the broadcast booth for good. Bas, you don't have to prove anything to anyone, don't take another fight unless it's against Rickson or Ken Shamrock. You've still got it, but your body probably can't take it. Step out of the fight game while it's your choice.

Quinton Jackson def Matt Lindland Decision (fight)

Traditionally a rival league's best chances of success are if it can lure away the oppositions best players with higher salaries and move into a city with a demand for the sport that isn't fufilled by the current league. In the case of the WFA, they just need to wait in the locker room after a UFC event and say “hey, you're not in the UFC anymore because you offended Dana white/lost once (whatever happened to building a fighter as a draw through fights and not reality tv shows)?/got paid 2,000 and had to go back to being a plumber. Lindland is another big loss to the UFC. He can fight slow fights, and he ALWAYS fights ugly fights, but he can fight good fights with the proper matchmaking, and I KNOW the UFC has a great matchmaker who could set it up for them. The sherdog crowd is going to dog Rampage because he didn't rip off lindland's head and shit down his neck. And they're going to continue to dog him until he kills Liddell and Wanderlei in a 2 on 1 handicap match. He's the new Alistair Overeem – the talented fighter everyone loves to hate.

Styles make fights. Rampage wins by using powerful basic standup combined with a powerful and dominating clinch wrestling game. CLINCH WRESTLING you know, like Greco-Roman style. Lindland was able to slow this to a crawl and sneak in many sneaky sub attempts (how many times has rampage been caught in a guillotine (I'll tell you: every fight he's ever in, and never subbed by one. How many times has he been caught in a Kimura (every second fight he's in, and never subbed by it.) Lindland came close to finishing both those and the RNC, because he has more technical grappling. Rampage was really only saved by his strength and agressiveness. If you watch closely you'll see Rampage had about 30 seconds total where he didn't have Lindland all over him like the rash Lodune Sincaid is going to get from Mayhem Miller. In those 30 seconds, page threw about ten strikes (including a flying knee) and socked the creepy-looking farmboy good with about half of them. And sherdoggers say 'page has lost his killer instinct. The man gutted out of sunk-in subs and tried to kill his opponent by any means possible, and even cut a decent promo after the fight. Put page in with another striker, or a grappler who isn't a silver medalist, and you'll see someone take a ride on the pain train.

And have Lindland fight Rich Franklin. Fuck you Dana White, the ugly bastard has earned it and more. What does he have to do, kill Nate Quarry in the parking lot 30 minutes before airtime?