Friday, April 18, 2008
Sam Stout vs. Rich Clementi
Clementi: +130
Stout: -160
What does Sam Stout bring that Anthony Johnson, Ross Pointon, or Melvin Guillard doesn't? Nothing. He will win a kickboxing match, but Clementi is tough and isn't dumb enough to go in and try to kickbox. I really don't understand this betting line at all. Clementi isn't going to be wearing a title belt anytime soon, but look at his record. His only losses in years are all to top level guys, who will reliably beat him, but also bring a well-rounded elite-level game into the octagon with them. Stout does not. He brings big punches and a good chin. That's not going to help against a submission wrestler. Clementi Submission round 1
I have money on Clementi at +140
Joe Doerksen vs. Jason MacDonald
MacDonald: -170
Doerksen: +140
Doerksen has been around a long time, and MacDonald is an up and comer. Macdonald has good submisison skills, very strong wrestling, and some power in his hands. Unless Doerksen can manage to be as dominant a wrestler as Yushin Okami or pound MacDonald as mercilessly as rich franklin did, Macdonald will knock him out again, even with his slow-mo punches.
I have money on Macdonald at -170
Jonathan Goulet vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Goulet: +190
Hironaka: -240
Goulet is the ultimate boom/bust fighter. I don't know if Hironaka has the tools or killer instinct to jump on the inevitable openings to finish him off, and I am always worried of Japanese fighters sleeping their way to decision loss in a slow, unaggressive technical standup fight. I don't know why it happens, but sometimes it does. That said, Hironaka SHOULDN'T lose here, because he can take what Goulet has to offer, and can threaten him in areas where Goulet is weak. Hironaka via submissions round 2.
Mark Bocek vs. Mac Danzig
Danzig: -475
Bocek: +375
A showpiece for Danzig. Bocek has the appearance of a threat because of his BJJ experience, but Danzig is a very strong grappler in his own right, and he's shown a variety of skills and great top control, so unless Bocek can put him on his back, Danzig will just show what he can do and win an impressive decision.
Ed Herman vs. Demian Maia
Demian Maia: -185
Ed Herman: +155
Ed Herman has very good grappling, although Maia should be favored there. I just expect that Herman's wrestling and his powerful hands should let him 'smash' any BJJ offense Demian tries to put together. This is a provisional pick, as I haven't watched enough tape on Demian. If I don't find any reason to change my mind, I will be putting money on Herman.
Brad Morris vs. Cain Velasquez
Morris: +175
Velasquez: -215
Noob heavyweights, who cares? Not me. Bet on the underdog if you must, because heavyweights are sloppy like that.
Jason Day vs. Alan Belcher
Belcher: -345
Day: +275
If you haven't seen it, go back and watch Belcher's fight with Kalib Starnes. He beat starnes like a slave, even doing the old Ray Sefo "take it and smile". Belcher has some very nice crisp Muay Thai, with good head movement, although he seems to get hit a lot while trading. If he keeps that up, eventually someone will tag him a good one and put him to sleep, but I don't think Day is the man to do it. While Day is coming off his biggest win (split decision over a sleepwalking David Loiseau) I fully expect Belcher to come in and smash "Dooms"Day's brains all over the canvas. He deserves it for that nickname.
Nate Quarry vs. Kalib Starnes
Starnes: +225
Quarry: -285
Both of these guys looked like shit in their last fights. Quarry was a punching bag for Pete Sell, which is never a good sign when you're a standup-only threat. Starnes looked like a whipped dog whenever Belcher or Leben hit him, although when he wasn't cringing like a little girl, he showed some good offense on the feet, and of course his grappling is on point. I don't think Quarry has the speed or technique to just overwhelm Starnes like those two did, and I don't think he has the athleticism of Belcher or the combination of wrestling and grappling that leben has. Starnes is a threat when he can control the fight and force work on the ground, and I think he can use his length to defend against Quarry and maybe work a little standup to wear the guy down. This fight will end as a blowout, either with Quarry making Starnes crap his pants trying to cower away from his abuser again, or with Starnes dominating position and submitting Quarry. I think Starnes has it.
I have money on Starnes at +265
Rich Franklin vs. Travis Lutter
There's no reason to give Lutter a shot here. He's looked more dangerous with his submissions than ever before, but Franklin is still rich Franklin. Everyone is thinking back to the armlock Okami nearly had on Franklin. I have news for you--Okami didn't finish it, and he has monster wrestling (to put franklin on his back) godzilla strength (to force Franklin's arms around like that, and to just force a sub) and very good defense on the feet (to hang with Franklin that long). Not to mention Okami's athleticism and conditioning. Lutter has none of that, just ugly facial hair. If Franklin comes in with his shoes tied together and falls flat on his back, maybe Lutter can crawl onto him and work his top game and submit, but barring that, Franklin is just going to hammer him to a stoppage. If Lutter isn't spark-out by the end of round 1, I'll be surprised, but his cardio will die and he'll get ground to a TKO in round 2.
Michael Bisping vs. Charles McCarthy
McCarthy: +290
Bisping: -350
McCarthy has a very dangerous offensive submission game, although he can get caught as well. Bisping has phenomenal sub defense, pretty good offensive submissions and sweeps, workable wrestling/takedown defense, and a very dangerous standup game. I expect Bisping to just fight this like a kickboxing match, scoring points and working for the judges. Bisping Unanimous Decision.
Matt Serra vs. Georges St. Pierre
GSP: -500
Serra: +400
Serra is the worst/weakest UFC champion in a LONG time, in my opinion. He shouldn't have been in the octagon with GSP in the first place, and, while he beat GSP with the exact same punch that he nearly killed Karo Parisyan with, GSP shouldn't have let him land it. Serra's putative strength is his ground game, but he has not shown much ability to threaten with is in MMA. Now, if GSP has a weakness (aside from speculative mental weaknesses) it's guys that just come in and beat him up. It puts him on the back foot and messes his day up. The prototypical example is BJ vs. GSP round 1. BJ just came in and hammered him, and GSP couldn't deal with it. That said, GSP should be safe as can be in Serra's guard, so if he comes in and fights smart, he'll drive the world's hardest double leg every time Serra comes in tossing hammers. If he does this for three rounds, Serra will be absolutely spent and GSP can prop him up and kick his head off like a Tee-Ball. GSP also has the power in his strikes to finish Serra at any other time, but I don't think he'll be comfortable at all trading with the Manhattan midget, so expect the takedowns. Serra is tough, but his gas is poor, so GSP by TKO or Submission in the 4th.
I have money on Serra at +400, because those are ludicrous odds. Serra may not be a standup expert, but, since he landed the same punch (to almost the same effect) on Karo, I don't think it's impossible that he does the same thing again. Combine that with the amount of pressure GSP is under, and the generally good performance of underdogs in UFC title fights, and I'll take Serra at +400 all day.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
NEW AND IMPROVED!!!!!!!
Nate Diaz vs. Kurt Pellegrino
To be filled in later. - I have a feeling here.
Manny Gamburyan vs. Jeff Cox
If you haven't seen Thiago Alves' KO of Jeff Cox, you should definitely check it out. Kind of embarassing. Cox has some skills, but he is boom or bust, and doesn't defend himself very well, although his offense isn't bad. Manny is being set up to win here, and I expect he'll be able to Manny by Sub, round 1.
Matt Hamill vs. Tim Boetsch
I love the Barbarian toss. It was seriously awesome. Hamill comes in there and mauls guys with his power, but a lot of that depends on his opponents being afraid of his wrestling. I don't think Tim is a better wrestler, but I think he can do enough to frustrate Matt that it won't impede his strikes on Matt. If Tim comes in and throws the same variety and crispness of strikes vs. Matt, I think he'll only give up the takedown infrequently, and he'll batter Hamill. Hamill is tough, but he seems to fade, so if he gets beaten on, Tim could finish him in the third, Decision is more likely, I think.
Roman Mitichyan vs. George Sotiropoulos
If Roman can't submit George, he will lose. He can't submit George. George is more skilled in every position, as well as more athletic. Roman is tough, technical, and game to fight, so this will be interesting. I expect Roman just won't be able to hang with the skills George brings to the table, and will wear himself down trying. I think George finishes him in the second.
Anthony Johnson vs. Tommy Speer
Johnson can punch well. Speer can punch hard and wrestle. You see where this goes. Speer TKO (punishment) Rd 2
Josh Neer vs. Din Thomas
Neer is a solid fighter; athletic, good power, no glaring weaknesses, decent in all areas. However, his standup seems to rely more on power than technique, which is what made Nick Diaz look like Mohammad Ali in their fight. Someone like Din Thomas, as slick and technical as he is, will continue to pick him apart. I expect to see Din beat on him until he can down him, then jump onto a submission while Neer is still dazed. It's hard to predict how long this takes, but Din isn't the hardest puncher in the world, so it could take longer.
Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard
Maynard is too slow and too raw to win this one. Edgar is just a level above him at this point. Gray may one day be on the same level, but for right now, he's still fresh out of TUF, and raw as hell, mostly relying on his physicality and toughness. Edgar has those things too, but has honed his skills to a sharper edge. I expect Edgar to beat Gray at every aspect of the game they engage in, for Gray to gas, and Edgar to finish him.
Houston Alexander vs. James Irvin
Who lands first? They win it. I expect it will be Irvin, because he won't be afraid of a banger that comes right at him. In fact, he'll invite it. He's used to that kind of thing. Irvin KO round 1 I love this fight. It's like a dirty joke or a late-night cinemax movie. It's inappropriate and embarassing, but it's what I want to see. I giggle a little.
Clay Guida vs. Samy Schiavo
Maybe Guida will get a finish here. I don't really fault him for not being the world's strongest finisher, because lord knows he tries. Samy will probably be overwhelmed and worn down and RNC'd. You know how that goes. Guida RNC Rd 2
Karo Parisyan vs. Thiago Alves
I just don't think Karo can get in there and control Thiago for 3 rounds. Previously I've said Thiago's wrestling isn't the best, but in retrospect, it's very good. Watch his fights with Tony Desouza or John Alessio. He brickwalled both of them. On top of that, Alves destroys people with his shots. His leg kicks sell wheelchairs, and his punches are discombobulating too. Hell, he sat Fitch on his ass within 20 seconds of the opening bell (granted, fitch got back up and owned him). Karo has shown trouble working his game against strong wrestlers, and while he may get some takedowns, he doesn't have the "you can't move me I'm a blanket" skills that wrestlers naturally develop. He won't get submitted, but nor will he credibly threaten Thiago with a submission.
Even if Karo catches every leg kick thiago throws, and takes him down, I expect Karo's leg to fall off in the third round. Karo has won his last several fights primarily with his standup, and that will be problematic, considering he isn't that strong defensively and mostly just relies on being tough. Karo will never quit, he has a good chin, and is tough as hell. I expect Thiago to lay an epic beating on him. Thiago TKO round 2
at +145, I have money on Thiago
Kenny Florian vs. Joe Lauzon
This is tricky. Joe comes out, blitzes his opponents with takedowns and violence and hustle. He doesn't do so well if his opponent is live and can resist that and make him work for it and hit him back. The described strategy is exactly what Diego Sanchez did to Kenny "Shang Tsung" Florian on TUF, but Florian has improved a lot since then and Lauzon is no Diego Sanchez. A lot of people give Kenny credit for lasting 5 rounds with sherk, but he did NOTHING in that fight, and Sherk has never in his career finished anyone that is either tough or good on the ground.
I think Kenny has improved to the point where he's a threat to Joe standing, at least points-wise. Joe will probably get some takedowns, but he'll have to work for them, and Kenny will defend and look to sweep. I think this goes to decision (or at least the third round) with Kenny winning a pretty clear-cut decision.
Nate Diaz vs. Kurt Pellegrino
To be filled in later. - I have a feeling here.
Manny Gamburyan vs. Jeff Cox
If you haven't seen Thiago Alves' KO of Jeff Cox, you should definitely check it out. Kind of embarassing. Cox has some skills, but he is boom or bust, and doesn't defend himself very well, although his offense isn't bad. Manny is being set up to win here, and I expect he'll be able to Manny by Sub, round 1.
Matt Hamill vs. Tim Boetsch
I love the Barbarian toss. It was seriously awesome. Hamill comes in there and mauls guys with his power, but a lot of that depends on his opponents being afraid of his wrestling. I don't think Tim is a better wrestler, but I think he can do enough to frustrate Matt that it won't impede his strikes on Matt. If Tim comes in and throws the same variety and crispness of strikes vs. Matt, I think he'll only give up the takedown infrequently, and he'll batter Hamill. Hamill is tough, but he seems to fade, so if he gets beaten on, Tim could finish him in the third, Decision is more likely, I think.
Roman Mitichyan vs. George Sotiropoulos
If Roman can't submit George, he will lose. He can't submit George. George is more skilled in every position, as well as more athletic. Roman is tough, technical, and game to fight, so this will be interesting. I expect Roman just won't be able to hang with the skills George brings to the table, and will wear himself down trying. I think George finishes him in the second.
Anthony Johnson vs. Tommy Speer
Johnson can punch well. Speer can punch hard and wrestle. You see where this goes. Speer TKO (punishment) Rd 2
Josh Neer vs. Din Thomas
Neer is a solid fighter; athletic, good power, no glaring weaknesses, decent in all areas. However, his standup seems to rely more on power than technique, which is what made Nick Diaz look like Mohammad Ali in their fight. Someone like Din Thomas, as slick and technical as he is, will continue to pick him apart. I expect to see Din beat on him until he can down him, then jump onto a submission while Neer is still dazed. It's hard to predict how long this takes, but Din isn't the hardest puncher in the world, so it could take longer.
Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard
Maynard is too slow and too raw to win this one. Edgar is just a level above him at this point. Gray may one day be on the same level, but for right now, he's still fresh out of TUF, and raw as hell, mostly relying on his physicality and toughness. Edgar has those things too, but has honed his skills to a sharper edge. I expect Edgar to beat Gray at every aspect of the game they engage in, for Gray to gas, and Edgar to finish him.
Houston Alexander vs. James Irvin
Who lands first? They win it. I expect it will be Irvin, because he won't be afraid of a banger that comes right at him. In fact, he'll invite it. He's used to that kind of thing. Irvin KO round 1 I love this fight. It's like a dirty joke or a late-night cinemax movie. It's inappropriate and embarassing, but it's what I want to see. I giggle a little.
Clay Guida vs. Samy Schiavo
Maybe Guida will get a finish here. I don't really fault him for not being the world's strongest finisher, because lord knows he tries. Samy will probably be overwhelmed and worn down and RNC'd. You know how that goes. Guida RNC Rd 2
Karo Parisyan vs. Thiago Alves
I just don't think Karo can get in there and control Thiago for 3 rounds. Previously I've said Thiago's wrestling isn't the best, but in retrospect, it's very good. Watch his fights with Tony Desouza or John Alessio. He brickwalled both of them. On top of that, Alves destroys people with his shots. His leg kicks sell wheelchairs, and his punches are discombobulating too. Hell, he sat Fitch on his ass within 20 seconds of the opening bell (granted, fitch got back up and owned him). Karo has shown trouble working his game against strong wrestlers, and while he may get some takedowns, he doesn't have the "you can't move me I'm a blanket" skills that wrestlers naturally develop. He won't get submitted, but nor will he credibly threaten Thiago with a submission.
Even if Karo catches every leg kick thiago throws, and takes him down, I expect Karo's leg to fall off in the third round. Karo has won his last several fights primarily with his standup, and that will be problematic, considering he isn't that strong defensively and mostly just relies on being tough. Karo will never quit, he has a good chin, and is tough as hell. I expect Thiago to lay an epic beating on him. Thiago TKO round 2
at +145, I have money on Thiago
Kenny Florian vs. Joe Lauzon
This is tricky. Joe comes out, blitzes his opponents with takedowns and violence and hustle. He doesn't do so well if his opponent is live and can resist that and make him work for it and hit him back. The described strategy is exactly what Diego Sanchez did to Kenny "Shang Tsung" Florian on TUF, but Florian has improved a lot since then and Lauzon is no Diego Sanchez. A lot of people give Kenny credit for lasting 5 rounds with sherk, but he did NOTHING in that fight, and Sherk has never in his career finished anyone that is either tough or good on the ground.
I think Kenny has improved to the point where he's a threat to Joe standing, at least points-wise. Joe will probably get some takedowns, but he'll have to work for them, and Kenny will defend and look to sweep. I think this goes to decision (or at least the third round) with Kenny winning a pretty clear-cut decision.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
All odds are from bookmaker.com, where I do my betting. Please notice that my "expert" advice has irony quotes around the word 'expert'. I am not actually an expert and you should make your own decisions.
Jorge Gurgel -215
John Halverson +175
I've never seen Halverson fight aside from being blitzed by Huerta, but he has a really astonishing KO rate (and a mediocre record). Gurgel used to be touted as the next big thing, but he's been exposed as a fighter that can't follow a gameplan or fight smart. He has skills, he has heart, and he's tough as nails, but he likes to eat punches to the face. He probably doesn't want to do that too much against someone with as much finishing ability as Halverson apparently has, but he's also probably tougher than anyone Halverson has ever fought. Gurgel will most likely make this more of a fight than it should be, and submit Halverson late in the 1st or midway through the second.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: I see no value in this line. Gurgel is enough of a tard to maybe lose to someone so beatable, but the odds reflect that. Gurgel might be underpriced, but I don't like betting on favorites, especially when they're as unpredictable as gurgel.
Andrei Arlovski -355
Jake OBrien +285
This fight is pretty interesting. It's been a while since we've seen Arlovski fight a strong wrestler. He shrugged off the janitor back in 2003, but he also outsized him, and Vladdy was going through his "has been" stage before he decided to become an "Is again" in the IFL. After seeing Heath Herring drop Jake early in their fight, I expect Arlovski will most likely pop the Irish Stallion a good one in this fight, and finish him off, snapping a pretty impressive undefeated streak. However, I'd be very curious to see how Arlovski handles being put on the matt and roughed up for a while. I don't think he'd take it well. Arlovski TKO round 1
Humungus "expert" betting advice: This line is kind of interesting because I think if Jake can out-wrestle arlovski (which I don't expect he'll readily be able to do) then he has a good chance of beating him. That said, Jake has questionable finishing ability when not fighting complete scrubs, and he's still a pretty unknown quantity, so I am hesitant to put any money on him.
Diego Sanchez -550
David Bielkheden +400
Mr. Bielkheden has a very spiffy pocket square;
However, I do not think he can wear it in the ring, so the spiffy swede is SOL. When one's only quality win is Charles McCartyh in 2004, Diego Sanchez is going to take you down and submit you or beat your face in, very quickly.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: Knowing how poor Diego's standup is, it's kinda tempting to put a few bucks down on such a massive underdog with KO power, but resistance to temptation is important. Diego is almost assuredly going to win, but betting on him would be idiocy at these odds.
Luke Cummo -160
Luigi Fioravanti +125
Close fight, hopefully we'll see some more crisp technical kickboxing from Cummo, who has developed some nasty power lately. Neither guy is a world-beater, but neither guy has a lot of embarassing losses either. I can't say I'm that fired up for this one. Cummo is most likely going to win by decision.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: Don't.
Jon Fitch -650
Chris Wilson +500
The difference here is experience. Fitch has been in with some of the top talent from this weightclass, and he's often emerged victorious. He hasn't had an easy fight. Until now. The best fighter Wilson has faced up until fitch is Nick Thompson, who finished him handily. Fitch will most likely do the same thing. Takedowns, grinding, abuse, until Wilson can't handle any more in the second round and gets finished.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: Wilson is such a longshot that it's tempting to bet on him on the off chance that he lands something really solid on fitch. Fitch is hittable and he's been KO'd before, so it's possible. At these odds, it's worth the money if you think Wilson wins 1/6 times. I don't think he does, though.
Chris Leben -160
Alessio Sakara +130
Sakara's chin would appear suspect, since he has been KO'd twice recently, but it's important to remember what happened in those fights. Houston drilled his grill with a brutal knee, and Mcfedries throws bombs like that's all he knows how to do. Which it is. In any case, entering the fight, Leben has more ways to win and more tools in his box, with his wrestling and submission skills in addition to his big right hand. If they just get into a standup exchange, Sakara's boxing SHOULD let him get the better of leben, but with leben's chin and power, he stands a chance in any brawl. If Leben comes in and fights smart, he'll control with wrestling and get an armbar midway through the fight. But 'smart' is a word rarely used to describe Chris Leben.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: If you believe in Sakara's hands AND think that Leben is going to be an idiot and try to just stand and bang all day, Sakara might not be a bad bet. Personally, I don't believe those things.
Cheick Kongo -170
Heath Herring +140
Heath Herring is the slop king. Kongo is the standup mandingo. Kongo's advantage is that he has an identifiable skill to threaten his opponent with. However, he also has glaring weaknesses. Herring's only weakness was the risk of his balls slipping out of his too-tiny fight shorts, which he has corrected by getting some proper pants. Heath doesn't have any readily identifiable dominant strengths, but he is competent in all areas, and brings a lot of hustle and toughness to his game. Herring needs this fight on the ground, and his wrestling is his weakest skill. However, Kongo's is very bad, and Herring can probably manage to drag him down eventually. While Heath did spend 10 minutes staring at Giant Silva before figuring out the freak was useless on the ground, I expect he'll be able to get Kongo to the ground and find a way to rough him up or submit him.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: I like heath in this fight. I think he's tough enough to fool around with Kongo for a while, and Kongo's utter uselessness on the ground even vs. Crocop make me think Heath will beat him up and twist his arms and suchlike. I have some money on Heath here.
Josh Koscheck -445
Dustin Hazelett +365
Losing to GSP doesn't mean you've fallen off. Koscheck still decides where he fights any fight he's in not involving french canadians. However, out-jabbing Diego "T-Rex Arms" Sanchez does not mean you're a dominant stand-up fighter. I don't know what kind of advantage Koscheck gains vs. Hazelett by forcing a standup fight, as Hazelett has hurt a few guys with his hands, and blown Chad Reiner's brains out in seven seconds with them. Hazelett is no mike tyson, but then again, neither is Koscheck. Coming into this fight, I see them pretty even on the feet.
On the ground, Koscheck's chances are much worse. Hazelett is a huge submission threat off his back, so Koscheck driving into a million takedowns for the decision takes a lot of risks of getting caught. Koscheck Handled Jeff Joslin for three rounds, but he was threatened several times, and I think Hazelett is more of a sub threat in MMA. He sees openings and he takes them. Koscheck will NOT be happy on top of Dustin Hazelett. Nor will he be happy with Dustin Hazelett transitions from a triangle to an armbar and taps out Koscheck in round 1.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: I think these odds are ridiculous. Hazelett is a huge underdog on the odds, and I think he's going to win the fight. Even if you don't think he's more likely to win, the odds are an even bet on Hazelett if you think he wins 1 in 5 times. I have money on Hazelett.
Yushin Okami -240
Evan Tanner +190
Welcome back Evan Tanner. Having been out for two years, it's very difficult to know what to expect from Evan. I'm going to do some more research into what's going on with his training and for how long he's been cleaned up and back into the game, and then I'll update this post with that information.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: At this point, betting on tanner is a total roll of the dice. That said, if he comes in like he did in top form years ago, he has the skills needed to beat someone as one-dimensional as Okami. Might be a good bet if you're a tanner believer.
Anderson Silva -170
Dan Henderson +140
This is going to be a very epic fight. Will Henderson be the lethal ball of fists he was vs. Rampage or Wanderlei (II) or will he windmill aimlessly and act like he has no concept of punching distance or footwork, like he did vs. Misaki? Will Anderson Silva actually go for a clinch? Will Anderson put on another virtuosic performance of perfectly lethal striking and focus, or will he drift away and become the same Silva that struggled with Ryo Chonan's standup and made Daiju Takase look like Rickson? Will one manage to actually knock the other out?
First, a couple things that will NOT happen:
1) Henderson will not submit Anderson, nor Anderson Hendo
2) Anderson will not close the distance to initiate a clinch to deliver knees. He doesn't want Henderson to get his hands on him.
I expect Henderson will come in brawling, looking to smash Silva against the fence and dirty box. Anderson's elbows could give him a lot of trouble at this range, especially since most of Hendo's power is on the end of his punches. Nevertheless, Hendo will control this position and be able to drag him down and beat him up. I expect it to look a lot like Couture vs. Chuck I, with Hendo eating good shots as he brawls in, but eventually just manhandling Silva to exhaustion. Dan Henderson TKO's Silva Round 3
Humungus "expert" betting advice: With Henderson being a decent underdog, I had to bet on him. I think he is a narrow favorite, given the style matchup. I wouldn't suggest anyone bet on Silva, with the odds against the bet like that. I have money on Henderson.
Jorge Gurgel -215
John Halverson +175
I've never seen Halverson fight aside from being blitzed by Huerta, but he has a really astonishing KO rate (and a mediocre record). Gurgel used to be touted as the next big thing, but he's been exposed as a fighter that can't follow a gameplan or fight smart. He has skills, he has heart, and he's tough as nails, but he likes to eat punches to the face. He probably doesn't want to do that too much against someone with as much finishing ability as Halverson apparently has, but he's also probably tougher than anyone Halverson has ever fought. Gurgel will most likely make this more of a fight than it should be, and submit Halverson late in the 1st or midway through the second.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: I see no value in this line. Gurgel is enough of a tard to maybe lose to someone so beatable, but the odds reflect that. Gurgel might be underpriced, but I don't like betting on favorites, especially when they're as unpredictable as gurgel.
Andrei Arlovski -355
Jake OBrien +285
This fight is pretty interesting. It's been a while since we've seen Arlovski fight a strong wrestler. He shrugged off the janitor back in 2003, but he also outsized him, and Vladdy was going through his "has been" stage before he decided to become an "Is again" in the IFL. After seeing Heath Herring drop Jake early in their fight, I expect Arlovski will most likely pop the Irish Stallion a good one in this fight, and finish him off, snapping a pretty impressive undefeated streak. However, I'd be very curious to see how Arlovski handles being put on the matt and roughed up for a while. I don't think he'd take it well. Arlovski TKO round 1
Humungus "expert" betting advice: This line is kind of interesting because I think if Jake can out-wrestle arlovski (which I don't expect he'll readily be able to do) then he has a good chance of beating him. That said, Jake has questionable finishing ability when not fighting complete scrubs, and he's still a pretty unknown quantity, so I am hesitant to put any money on him.
Diego Sanchez -550
David Bielkheden +400
Mr. Bielkheden has a very spiffy pocket square;
However, I do not think he can wear it in the ring, so the spiffy swede is SOL. When one's only quality win is Charles McCartyh in 2004, Diego Sanchez is going to take you down and submit you or beat your face in, very quickly.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: Knowing how poor Diego's standup is, it's kinda tempting to put a few bucks down on such a massive underdog with KO power, but resistance to temptation is important. Diego is almost assuredly going to win, but betting on him would be idiocy at these odds.
Luke Cummo -160
Luigi Fioravanti +125
Close fight, hopefully we'll see some more crisp technical kickboxing from Cummo, who has developed some nasty power lately. Neither guy is a world-beater, but neither guy has a lot of embarassing losses either. I can't say I'm that fired up for this one. Cummo is most likely going to win by decision.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: Don't.
Jon Fitch -650
Chris Wilson +500
The difference here is experience. Fitch has been in with some of the top talent from this weightclass, and he's often emerged victorious. He hasn't had an easy fight. Until now. The best fighter Wilson has faced up until fitch is Nick Thompson, who finished him handily. Fitch will most likely do the same thing. Takedowns, grinding, abuse, until Wilson can't handle any more in the second round and gets finished.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: Wilson is such a longshot that it's tempting to bet on him on the off chance that he lands something really solid on fitch. Fitch is hittable and he's been KO'd before, so it's possible. At these odds, it's worth the money if you think Wilson wins 1/6 times. I don't think he does, though.
Chris Leben -160
Alessio Sakara +130
Sakara's chin would appear suspect, since he has been KO'd twice recently, but it's important to remember what happened in those fights. Houston drilled his grill with a brutal knee, and Mcfedries throws bombs like that's all he knows how to do. Which it is. In any case, entering the fight, Leben has more ways to win and more tools in his box, with his wrestling and submission skills in addition to his big right hand. If they just get into a standup exchange, Sakara's boxing SHOULD let him get the better of leben, but with leben's chin and power, he stands a chance in any brawl. If Leben comes in and fights smart, he'll control with wrestling and get an armbar midway through the fight. But 'smart' is a word rarely used to describe Chris Leben.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: If you believe in Sakara's hands AND think that Leben is going to be an idiot and try to just stand and bang all day, Sakara might not be a bad bet. Personally, I don't believe those things.
Cheick Kongo -170
Heath Herring +140
Heath Herring is the slop king. Kongo is the standup mandingo. Kongo's advantage is that he has an identifiable skill to threaten his opponent with. However, he also has glaring weaknesses. Herring's only weakness was the risk of his balls slipping out of his too-tiny fight shorts, which he has corrected by getting some proper pants. Heath doesn't have any readily identifiable dominant strengths, but he is competent in all areas, and brings a lot of hustle and toughness to his game. Herring needs this fight on the ground, and his wrestling is his weakest skill. However, Kongo's is very bad, and Herring can probably manage to drag him down eventually. While Heath did spend 10 minutes staring at Giant Silva before figuring out the freak was useless on the ground, I expect he'll be able to get Kongo to the ground and find a way to rough him up or submit him.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: I like heath in this fight. I think he's tough enough to fool around with Kongo for a while, and Kongo's utter uselessness on the ground even vs. Crocop make me think Heath will beat him up and twist his arms and suchlike. I have some money on Heath here.
Josh Koscheck -445
Dustin Hazelett +365
Losing to GSP doesn't mean you've fallen off. Koscheck still decides where he fights any fight he's in not involving french canadians. However, out-jabbing Diego "T-Rex Arms" Sanchez does not mean you're a dominant stand-up fighter. I don't know what kind of advantage Koscheck gains vs. Hazelett by forcing a standup fight, as Hazelett has hurt a few guys with his hands, and blown Chad Reiner's brains out in seven seconds with them. Hazelett is no mike tyson, but then again, neither is Koscheck. Coming into this fight, I see them pretty even on the feet.
On the ground, Koscheck's chances are much worse. Hazelett is a huge submission threat off his back, so Koscheck driving into a million takedowns for the decision takes a lot of risks of getting caught. Koscheck Handled Jeff Joslin for three rounds, but he was threatened several times, and I think Hazelett is more of a sub threat in MMA. He sees openings and he takes them. Koscheck will NOT be happy on top of Dustin Hazelett. Nor will he be happy with Dustin Hazelett transitions from a triangle to an armbar and taps out Koscheck in round 1.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: I think these odds are ridiculous. Hazelett is a huge underdog on the odds, and I think he's going to win the fight. Even if you don't think he's more likely to win, the odds are an even bet on Hazelett if you think he wins 1 in 5 times. I have money on Hazelett.
Yushin Okami -240
Evan Tanner +190
Welcome back Evan Tanner. Having been out for two years, it's very difficult to know what to expect from Evan. I'm going to do some more research into what's going on with his training and for how long he's been cleaned up and back into the game, and then I'll update this post with that information.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: At this point, betting on tanner is a total roll of the dice. That said, if he comes in like he did in top form years ago, he has the skills needed to beat someone as one-dimensional as Okami. Might be a good bet if you're a tanner believer.
Anderson Silva -170
Dan Henderson +140
This is going to be a very epic fight. Will Henderson be the lethal ball of fists he was vs. Rampage or Wanderlei (II) or will he windmill aimlessly and act like he has no concept of punching distance or footwork, like he did vs. Misaki? Will Anderson Silva actually go for a clinch? Will Anderson put on another virtuosic performance of perfectly lethal striking and focus, or will he drift away and become the same Silva that struggled with Ryo Chonan's standup and made Daiju Takase look like Rickson? Will one manage to actually knock the other out?
First, a couple things that will NOT happen:
1) Henderson will not submit Anderson, nor Anderson Hendo
2) Anderson will not close the distance to initiate a clinch to deliver knees. He doesn't want Henderson to get his hands on him.
I expect Henderson will come in brawling, looking to smash Silva against the fence and dirty box. Anderson's elbows could give him a lot of trouble at this range, especially since most of Hendo's power is on the end of his punches. Nevertheless, Hendo will control this position and be able to drag him down and beat him up. I expect it to look a lot like Couture vs. Chuck I, with Hendo eating good shots as he brawls in, but eventually just manhandling Silva to exhaustion. Dan Henderson TKO's Silva Round 3
Humungus "expert" betting advice: With Henderson being a decent underdog, I had to bet on him. I think he is a narrow favorite, given the style matchup. I wouldn't suggest anyone bet on Silva, with the odds against the bet like that. I have money on Henderson.
Friday, February 23, 2007
Okay, I was inspired by James Hirth's expected lackluster effort to go and break down Pride 33. Sherdog, hire me. I obviously have talent, and I can clean it up and be more professional if need be, not to mention stick to a deadline.
Hansen vs. Ireland
Hansen was cruising for a title shot before Aoki set him back another year. Between that and his ball-shot on Kawajiri, the man has no belt to hold his pants up. This is a squash match, so there isn't much to say about it. I just felt like complaining that we're missing out on Hansen vs. Gomi for a while. Ireland is a solid wrestler, which is no good because Hansen is better at BJJ than striking. Not to mention better at striking than Ireland. Plus, Hansen's greatest attribute on the feet is POWAH, so he'll be effective even with the few shots he'll be able to land before giving up the takedown. Hansen by sub in the 2nd
Misaki vs. Trigg
Misaki is talented, and has racked up some excellent victories, but his technical and cautious striking style is poison for the likes of Baroni and Hendo. He hasn't shown me much on the ground, so Trigg has a shot at controlling and beating him up, then coasting to a decision or late stoppage once his man is worn down. That said, Trigg is being lazy by not cutting back down to his best weight and fighting a naturally bigger man, so Misaki can probably outlast and outwork Trigg and take the fight if he can avoid serious punishment early on. Misaki by decision.
Travis Wiuff vs. James Lee
It's the intended fall guy vs the late replacement in a battle to see who can get a W in his debut and never get invited back! Who cares! Sorry Travis, you're talented, but you don't matter in this division right now. Good luck, James. Wiuff by KOTC-style slop KO in the first.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Sokoudjou
I swear the shadowy forces behind pride matchmaking have something agains Rog Nog. The only interesting parts of this match are Sokoudjou's hair and figuring out whether Nog is going to KO him or sub him. I'll go out on a limb and say Nog by KO in the 5th minute.
Sakurai vs Danzig
Sakurai is my homeboy. Brother throws spin kicks, does tight-ass judo throws, and looks like someone's pissed off dad. Plus he has tight gambling debts. Danzig is a legitimately talented fighter with technical skills, but he's limited and Sakurai can do it all (and well). The short right hook comes over your infighting, Mac, and you drop, to be finished with GnP for the TKO. Sakurai KO 2nd
Sergei Kharitonov vs Mike Russow
Sergei has what it takes to be a strong competitor for years. He showed to be a much better fighter than Aleks (if a dumber one) in their match, and the only thing that's going to hold him back is his extreme slowness, and what seems to be a tendency towards injury. If the injuries were flukes, Sergei is going to continue to smash up the division. Russow is green as hell. He's a monster wrestler, so expect sergei to roll around on his back early in the match, but with no knees to the face, the Russian machine will not be stopped. Russow's inexperience will come to the fore later in the match, when he does the all-too-typical one-dimensional-wrestler gas-out after a few minutes of strong control. Then they'll be stood back up, and Sergei will maul him like he insulted the motherland. Sergei by KO 2nd.
Shogun vs. Overeem
Why is everyone saying this match is pointless? Their first match was back and forth. Sure it only went back once, and then came right back forth, but it went pretty far back. Overeem remains a legit threat, and a win here would shake up the division and make for interesting matches in the future. If Shogun wins, he'll have to show more champion-caliber qualities, and this will be an excellent touchstone fight in evaluating him. Maybe Overeem has lost a few and has all the lasting power of a 17 year old on prom night, but he's explosive, and dangerous in a number of weird ways. Not to mention he nearly won the first fight. Shogun is sloppy on the feet, and if Overeem could punch, I'd say he's the favorite. Sadly, Overeem punches with his head and then his arm follows in a wild flail. Don't ask me why. I expect essentially a repeat of the first fight, although hopefully without 30-takedown-combos by Overeem. That said, I've seen odds as strong as +350 for Overeem, and that's a smart bet if you like to play the spread. Shogun KO 2
Nick Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi
First things first: Diaz is not as big as Gomi. Nick might have fought at 170, but the man is not a huge powerful monster like GSP or Hughes are at that weight. Marcus Aurelio is a much bigger man than Nick is, and Gomi is around his size. Gomi is a lock for this fight. Diaz is durable, has tons of fight in him, and has talent on the feet and on the ground. However, a strong wrestler can control him. Gomi has a BETTER chin and more power striking, and, if he gets into trouble with Diaz's reach, he can just shoot takedowns on Diaz and ride it out. Yes Gomi was subbed when he gave up side control to Aurelio with a badly missed haymaker, and yes Diaz stuffed Sherk's takedown when Sherk's midget ass shot in from two miles away, but don't miss the forest for the trees. Diaz has no chance of taking Gomi down barring another slip-up by the champ, and Gomi isn't going to play around on the ground and give Diaz a chance for anything from his guard. Gomi is going to win. Gomi by KO 2nd
Dan Henderson vs. Wanderlei Silva
Silva has only gotten bigger and stronger since their first fight, where Silva clearly outmuscled him. Dan's improve his striking immensely, and forgotten how to wrestle. Wanderlei has honed his brawling style for MMA, and become an absolute killer, with an excellent and tight defensive guard. Silva has a soft head, and Dan a hard one. Both are incredibly tenacious and will NOT give up in a fight. Silva has much better cardio, and trying to control a larger, stronger man will wear Dan down. Dan isn't going to submit Wanderlei, and only Arona has ever been able to control the MW champ for a decision, and that man could control a buffalo. Dan's only hope is landing another monster right and dropping Wandy for the finish. If he looks for the KO, Dan's aimless windmilling style is going to get him KO'd horribly, and trying to wrestle with Silva is just going to wear him out to set up a horrible KO late in the bout. Silva by KO 2nd
So a lot of squash matches and a couple that might be important for their division. A pretty solid card then, and one that has serious talent in every fight, although the bulk of it will be on one side of the ref when the match starts. Should be very entertaining.
Hansen vs. Ireland
Hansen was cruising for a title shot before Aoki set him back another year. Between that and his ball-shot on Kawajiri, the man has no belt to hold his pants up. This is a squash match, so there isn't much to say about it. I just felt like complaining that we're missing out on Hansen vs. Gomi for a while. Ireland is a solid wrestler, which is no good because Hansen is better at BJJ than striking. Not to mention better at striking than Ireland. Plus, Hansen's greatest attribute on the feet is POWAH, so he'll be effective even with the few shots he'll be able to land before giving up the takedown. Hansen by sub in the 2nd
Misaki vs. Trigg
Misaki is talented, and has racked up some excellent victories, but his technical and cautious striking style is poison for the likes of Baroni and Hendo. He hasn't shown me much on the ground, so Trigg has a shot at controlling and beating him up, then coasting to a decision or late stoppage once his man is worn down. That said, Trigg is being lazy by not cutting back down to his best weight and fighting a naturally bigger man, so Misaki can probably outlast and outwork Trigg and take the fight if he can avoid serious punishment early on. Misaki by decision.
Travis Wiuff vs. James Lee
It's the intended fall guy vs the late replacement in a battle to see who can get a W in his debut and never get invited back! Who cares! Sorry Travis, you're talented, but you don't matter in this division right now. Good luck, James. Wiuff by KOTC-style slop KO in the first.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Sokoudjou
I swear the shadowy forces behind pride matchmaking have something agains Rog Nog. The only interesting parts of this match are Sokoudjou's hair and figuring out whether Nog is going to KO him or sub him. I'll go out on a limb and say Nog by KO in the 5th minute.
Sakurai vs Danzig
Sakurai is my homeboy. Brother throws spin kicks, does tight-ass judo throws, and looks like someone's pissed off dad. Plus he has tight gambling debts. Danzig is a legitimately talented fighter with technical skills, but he's limited and Sakurai can do it all (and well). The short right hook comes over your infighting, Mac, and you drop, to be finished with GnP for the TKO. Sakurai KO 2nd
Sergei Kharitonov vs Mike Russow
Sergei has what it takes to be a strong competitor for years. He showed to be a much better fighter than Aleks (if a dumber one) in their match, and the only thing that's going to hold him back is his extreme slowness, and what seems to be a tendency towards injury. If the injuries were flukes, Sergei is going to continue to smash up the division. Russow is green as hell. He's a monster wrestler, so expect sergei to roll around on his back early in the match, but with no knees to the face, the Russian machine will not be stopped. Russow's inexperience will come to the fore later in the match, when he does the all-too-typical one-dimensional-wrestler gas-out after a few minutes of strong control. Then they'll be stood back up, and Sergei will maul him like he insulted the motherland. Sergei by KO 2nd.
Shogun vs. Overeem
Why is everyone saying this match is pointless? Their first match was back and forth. Sure it only went back once, and then came right back forth, but it went pretty far back. Overeem remains a legit threat, and a win here would shake up the division and make for interesting matches in the future. If Shogun wins, he'll have to show more champion-caliber qualities, and this will be an excellent touchstone fight in evaluating him. Maybe Overeem has lost a few and has all the lasting power of a 17 year old on prom night, but he's explosive, and dangerous in a number of weird ways. Not to mention he nearly won the first fight. Shogun is sloppy on the feet, and if Overeem could punch, I'd say he's the favorite. Sadly, Overeem punches with his head and then his arm follows in a wild flail. Don't ask me why. I expect essentially a repeat of the first fight, although hopefully without 30-takedown-combos by Overeem. That said, I've seen odds as strong as +350 for Overeem, and that's a smart bet if you like to play the spread. Shogun KO 2
Nick Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi
First things first: Diaz is not as big as Gomi. Nick might have fought at 170, but the man is not a huge powerful monster like GSP or Hughes are at that weight. Marcus Aurelio is a much bigger man than Nick is, and Gomi is around his size. Gomi is a lock for this fight. Diaz is durable, has tons of fight in him, and has talent on the feet and on the ground. However, a strong wrestler can control him. Gomi has a BETTER chin and more power striking, and, if he gets into trouble with Diaz's reach, he can just shoot takedowns on Diaz and ride it out. Yes Gomi was subbed when he gave up side control to Aurelio with a badly missed haymaker, and yes Diaz stuffed Sherk's takedown when Sherk's midget ass shot in from two miles away, but don't miss the forest for the trees. Diaz has no chance of taking Gomi down barring another slip-up by the champ, and Gomi isn't going to play around on the ground and give Diaz a chance for anything from his guard. Gomi is going to win. Gomi by KO 2nd
Dan Henderson vs. Wanderlei Silva
Silva has only gotten bigger and stronger since their first fight, where Silva clearly outmuscled him. Dan's improve his striking immensely, and forgotten how to wrestle. Wanderlei has honed his brawling style for MMA, and become an absolute killer, with an excellent and tight defensive guard. Silva has a soft head, and Dan a hard one. Both are incredibly tenacious and will NOT give up in a fight. Silva has much better cardio, and trying to control a larger, stronger man will wear Dan down. Dan isn't going to submit Wanderlei, and only Arona has ever been able to control the MW champ for a decision, and that man could control a buffalo. Dan's only hope is landing another monster right and dropping Wandy for the finish. If he looks for the KO, Dan's aimless windmilling style is going to get him KO'd horribly, and trying to wrestle with Silva is just going to wear him out to set up a horrible KO late in the bout. Silva by KO 2nd
So a lot of squash matches and a couple that might be important for their division. A pretty solid card then, and one that has serious talent in every fight, although the bulk of it will be on one side of the ref when the match starts. Should be very entertaining.
Friday, February 02, 2007
A captive bolt gun is designed as follows.
A 'blank' pistol cartridge or a highly-compressed air source is used to drive a 'bolt' forward several inches at a very high rate of speed. Because the bolt is held 'captive' it will not leave the gun, so it can quickly be reset for another firing.
Captive bolt guns are used in slaughterhouses, to put small holes in the heads of cows and sheep, so that they die and can be eaten.
So you are wondering to yourself, "is this still an MMA blog, did I accidently stumble onto industrialfarmingmethods.blogspot.com?" Of course it's still an MMA blog, and of course I am talking about UFC 67. Say hello to Eddie Sanchez:
I'm sorry, but this kind of matchmaking is irresponsible. Crocop is simply going to cause this man irreparable damage, and then reset himself to slaughter the next scrub the UFC puts in front of him. Why the NSAC sanctioned the fight is beyond me.
Eddie will come out in the standard "holy shit that's crocop" stance, with his hands held up incredibly high, as if to ward off mosquitos, and crocop will throw the left straight down the pipe and smash his nose.
That is if Eddie doesn't come out thinking he can bum rush crocop, in which case you will see a replay of Babalu vs. Chuck II, only with crocop outrunning the punches instead of eating them.
So that's enough said about that fight.
Marvin Eastman is going for a ride.
Remember the last time Rampage fought a powerful striker who stood around 5'9"? If you don't, go buy pride 22 and watch Igor Vovchanchyn take a ride on space mountain. This is going to be a more entertaining fight than crocop's, but only because Rampage isn't the kind of fighter that stops his opponent with a single crushing blow. He just beats the other man into submission, with whatever he deems expedient at the time.
One factor I haven't heard much talk about is Rampage's ability with his elbows. Ask Chuck Liddell's ribs how well 'page can throw dem bows. I think the UFC ruleset will quickly make those his go-to tool for smashing faces. If Rampage doesn't get himself disqualified for spiking Eastman, this fight is going to be a mugging.
Anderson Silva is gifted
I think in a situation like this it's very important to see how quickly a striker can stop a fight. Anderson doesn't have the takedown defense to wear Lutter out and pick his shots over a few rounds--he's going to have to get in and work Lutter early and often. That said, Silva has multiple sub 2 minute stoppages, meaning not only does he have the striking skills, but he can work them very quickly, landing on opponents without much feeling out of their defense or strategy.
This means that Silva definitely can do what many are expecting him to do and simply blitz Travis and leave him lying against the fence. However, Lutter's style is exactly what has given Silva fits before. The man loves to throw his muay thai techniques, and seems to lose his composure to a degree when someone is just grinding him into the floor. Lutter WILL armbar someone underneath him unless they are very tight and conservative, and Silva's long arms will definitely be exposed.
That said, this fight is 50/50. If I had to pick, I'd say Silva, but given the way the odds are, I'd put money on Lutter, as this fight is much closer than +300 would indicate.
A 'blank' pistol cartridge or a highly-compressed air source is used to drive a 'bolt' forward several inches at a very high rate of speed. Because the bolt is held 'captive' it will not leave the gun, so it can quickly be reset for another firing.
Captive bolt guns are used in slaughterhouses, to put small holes in the heads of cows and sheep, so that they die and can be eaten.
So you are wondering to yourself, "is this still an MMA blog, did I accidently stumble onto industrialfarmingmethods.blogspot.com?" Of course it's still an MMA blog, and of course I am talking about UFC 67. Say hello to Eddie Sanchez:
I'm sorry, but this kind of matchmaking is irresponsible. Crocop is simply going to cause this man irreparable damage, and then reset himself to slaughter the next scrub the UFC puts in front of him. Why the NSAC sanctioned the fight is beyond me.
Eddie will come out in the standard "holy shit that's crocop" stance, with his hands held up incredibly high, as if to ward off mosquitos, and crocop will throw the left straight down the pipe and smash his nose.
That is if Eddie doesn't come out thinking he can bum rush crocop, in which case you will see a replay of Babalu vs. Chuck II, only with crocop outrunning the punches instead of eating them.
So that's enough said about that fight.
Marvin Eastman is going for a ride.
Remember the last time Rampage fought a powerful striker who stood around 5'9"? If you don't, go buy pride 22 and watch Igor Vovchanchyn take a ride on space mountain. This is going to be a more entertaining fight than crocop's, but only because Rampage isn't the kind of fighter that stops his opponent with a single crushing blow. He just beats the other man into submission, with whatever he deems expedient at the time.
One factor I haven't heard much talk about is Rampage's ability with his elbows. Ask Chuck Liddell's ribs how well 'page can throw dem bows. I think the UFC ruleset will quickly make those his go-to tool for smashing faces. If Rampage doesn't get himself disqualified for spiking Eastman, this fight is going to be a mugging.
Anderson Silva is gifted
I think in a situation like this it's very important to see how quickly a striker can stop a fight. Anderson doesn't have the takedown defense to wear Lutter out and pick his shots over a few rounds--he's going to have to get in and work Lutter early and often. That said, Silva has multiple sub 2 minute stoppages, meaning not only does he have the striking skills, but he can work them very quickly, landing on opponents without much feeling out of their defense or strategy.
This means that Silva definitely can do what many are expecting him to do and simply blitz Travis and leave him lying against the fence. However, Lutter's style is exactly what has given Silva fits before. The man loves to throw his muay thai techniques, and seems to lose his composure to a degree when someone is just grinding him into the floor. Lutter WILL armbar someone underneath him unless they are very tight and conservative, and Silva's long arms will definitely be exposed.
That said, this fight is 50/50. If I had to pick, I'd say Silva, but given the way the odds are, I'd put money on Lutter, as this fight is much closer than +300 would indicate.
Friday, November 03, 2006
Picks and Predictions for Bushido 13
Denis Kang vs. Akihiro Gono
Many are counting Gono down and out in this fight, and, admittedly, Kang has been stomping through this tournament while Gono has barely squeaked by his opposition. However, I do not expect Kang to be able to annihilate Gono as easily as many predict. Akihiro has been fighting for longer than almost anyone else in this sport, and that kind of experience can either break a man down (Paging Ken Shamrock), or give him a wealth of experience and craft that makes him a dangerous opponent for anyone. Gono falls into the latter category, so he’s going to put up a solid fight. That said, his sit-and-wait striking style has brought him trouble in his last several fights, and I expect a strong explosive striker like Kang will keep increasing the pressure, and not let Gono come into his own. On the ground, this fight should be a wash, while standing I expect Kang to dominate unless Gono has a sneaky counter to Kang’s style prepared. Look for a battered Gono to run from Kang until the final bell, barring Kang gassing out. Kang by Decision
Misaki is a very impressive striker, with a huge variety of techniques he can employ in a number of styles. His fights with Dan Henderson and Baroni opened a lot of eyes. Too bad none of this matters. Filho is going to pin him to the floor in about 30 seconds, and then, depending on a pre-match coin flip, either armbar him for mount, or ride to a unanimous decision. Given Misaki’s grappling experience, the armbar is slightly less likely. Filho by decision.
Nobuhiro Obiya vs. Luiz "Buscape" Firmino
Obiya is coming off losing his undefeated streak in what must have been a confidence-shattering mauling at the hands of Gil Melendez. Buscape is currently competing with Shaolin Ribeiro for the title of “most underutilized talent at lightweight”. Barring huge amounts of ring-rust, Buscape should be able to beat up a unconfident Obiya, but I don’t expect a finish, given Obiya’s lasting power and Buscape’s inactivity. Buscape by decision.
Murilo Bustamente vs. Yoon Dong Sik
Dong needs to have a T-shirt. I would buy it in a second, and buy more for my mom for Christmas. Busta is a tough competitor and a gritty veteran, but I don’t really see him caring about any of his fights lately. Dong has had a really rough road to hoe lately, but after his embarrassing loss to Sakuraba, proved he had what it took in taking a massive beating from Quinton Jackson. Bustamante has two options in this fight, he can force a ground war and probably submit the Judoka, or he can prance around and pick at dong, give him a black eye, and win a decision. Bustamante by submission Round 1
Ikuhisa Minowa vs. Mike Burton
Minowa once again showing he is the hardest working man in the business, Bart Gunn was nearly decapitated by butterbean and has now come back for some sort of weird reverse-revenge meta-vendetta by facing the last man to beat the bean. Whatever, couldn’t this have stopped after pride 2? Minowa by submission (paycheck) round 1
Takanori Gomi vs. Marcus Aurelio
Aurelio shouldn’t have beat Gomi, which is why it was a non-title fight. But he did, but then he shouldn’t have fought Ishida, as the title picture was somewhat clouded. But he did, and he lost. So now we have this wonderful situation, where Aurelio’s claim to the throne is questionable at best, coming off a very clear defeat, and even if Gomi wins here, his belt will remain tarnished until he KO’s that boyscout-looking T-blood coach. Ugly, that is. In his last fight, Gomi looked like he was about to vomit everytime he was on the ground. In his last fight, Aurelio looked like he’d be lucky to remember what his name was. If Gomi sticks to what made him champion, tight boxing and great wrestling, he should make this a painful and frustrating fight for Maximus. If Gomi tries to channel Ishida and GnP his way to victory like he did against Jean Silva, he’s going to get his arm broken. Aurelio may be big enough, but I don’t think he has the technique to force a ground fight. I expect failed takedowns, and then for him to get that Mark Coleman vs. Crocop “I want to fight on the ground but you’re not letting me” look in his eyes, get punched in the gut then the face, and fall over. Gomi by KO round 1.
Gegard Mousasi vs. Hector Lombard
What is this, the “I lost to gono” special? Both of these men nearly blew Gono out of the water in the early going of their fights with him, only to lose to what amounted to his craftiness and staying power. Both had glaring weaknesses in the fight too; Lombard wasting energy like he’d been coached by Alistair Overeem, and Gegard looking hopeless on the ground. What impressed was Gegard’s striking and Hectors power, aggressiveness, and wrestling/groundwork. Matching those facts up, means that Hector, barring another gas attack, is going to throw Gegard to the ground, and beat him up/submit him. Lombard by submission round 1.
Sanae Kikuta vs. Jean Francois Lenogue
Lenogue gets submitted a lot. Kikuta is good at submissions. Kikuta gets KO’d by people who rarely drop someone, like Minotauro and Yuki Kondo. I don’t expect a decision. When one fighter doesn’t have a ground game and isn’t a top wrestler, and the other one is an experienced fighter with a good ground game, you know what happens. Kikuta by submission.
Mitsuhiro Ishida vs. David Bielkheden
In case you’re wondering, yes, Ishida is fighting another jiu-jitsu guy. Just like he has for almost his entire career. As such, we know what to expect here. David is not Shaolin, and, although big for this weight class, he is not Marcus Aurelio either. Ishida will takedown, GnP. Stay, active, keep up the hustle, show that he’s unsubmitable, and make David suffer for his loser’s paycheck. Ishida by decision.
Yoshihiro Maeda vs. Joe Pearson
I really suspect Pride is considering opening up a featherweight division in Bushido, and this is yet another ‘tester’ fight, to build a relationship with the fighters and get them some face time in front of the fans. Maeda is a (at one time rare, but now increasingly common) Japanese KO machine, while Pearson is a (at one time rare, but now increasingly common) American submission machine. I suspect Maeda has been around the block enough to avoid the ground, and just punish the limited Pearson on the feet. Neither of these guys likes to go the distance. Maeda by KO round 1.
Shinya Aoki vs. Clay French
I was really looking forward to seeing Aoki and Melendez go at it. However, last-minute injuries are the reality in the fight game, so we’re being treated to what amounts to an exhibition of Aoki’s talents. Look for him to try (again) to show us a submission that’s never been used in Pride before. This time with less loud tights. Aoki by flying submission, round 1.
Of course, in the finals, my expectations would leave Kang vs. Filho, wherein filho would handily pin him to the floor and rape him. Filho wins this GP easily, no matter who he faces. If Misaki makes it to the finals, he’ll beat Kang. If it’s an all-GRABAKA finals, who knows if they’ll fight, or spar, or put on a grappling exhibition.
“Lock” Order – most certainty first, least certainty last.
Minowa by submission (paycheck) round 1
Aoki by flying submission, round 1.
Ishida by decision.
Maeda by KO round 1.
Filho by decision.
Buscape by decision.
Kikuta by submission round 1.
Gomi by KO round 1.
Kang by Decision
Lombard by submission round 1.
Bustamante by submission Round 1
Denis Kang vs. Akihiro Gono
Many are counting Gono down and out in this fight, and, admittedly, Kang has been stomping through this tournament while Gono has barely squeaked by his opposition. However, I do not expect Kang to be able to annihilate Gono as easily as many predict. Akihiro has been fighting for longer than almost anyone else in this sport, and that kind of experience can either break a man down (Paging Ken Shamrock), or give him a wealth of experience and craft that makes him a dangerous opponent for anyone. Gono falls into the latter category, so he’s going to put up a solid fight. That said, his sit-and-wait striking style has brought him trouble in his last several fights, and I expect a strong explosive striker like Kang will keep increasing the pressure, and not let Gono come into his own. On the ground, this fight should be a wash, while standing I expect Kang to dominate unless Gono has a sneaky counter to Kang’s style prepared. Look for a battered Gono to run from Kang until the final bell, barring Kang gassing out. Kang by Decision
Misaki is a very impressive striker, with a huge variety of techniques he can employ in a number of styles. His fights with Dan Henderson and Baroni opened a lot of eyes. Too bad none of this matters. Filho is going to pin him to the floor in about 30 seconds, and then, depending on a pre-match coin flip, either armbar him for mount, or ride to a unanimous decision. Given Misaki’s grappling experience, the armbar is slightly less likely. Filho by decision.
Nobuhiro Obiya vs. Luiz "Buscape" Firmino
Obiya is coming off losing his undefeated streak in what must have been a confidence-shattering mauling at the hands of Gil Melendez. Buscape is currently competing with Shaolin Ribeiro for the title of “most underutilized talent at lightweight”. Barring huge amounts of ring-rust, Buscape should be able to beat up a unconfident Obiya, but I don’t expect a finish, given Obiya’s lasting power and Buscape’s inactivity. Buscape by decision.
Murilo Bustamente vs. Yoon Dong Sik
Dong needs to have a T-shirt. I would buy it in a second, and buy more for my mom for Christmas. Busta is a tough competitor and a gritty veteran, but I don’t really see him caring about any of his fights lately. Dong has had a really rough road to hoe lately, but after his embarrassing loss to Sakuraba, proved he had what it took in taking a massive beating from Quinton Jackson. Bustamante has two options in this fight, he can force a ground war and probably submit the Judoka, or he can prance around and pick at dong, give him a black eye, and win a decision. Bustamante by submission Round 1
Ikuhisa Minowa vs. Mike Burton
Minowa once again showing he is the hardest working man in the business, Bart Gunn was nearly decapitated by butterbean and has now come back for some sort of weird reverse-revenge meta-vendetta by facing the last man to beat the bean. Whatever, couldn’t this have stopped after pride 2? Minowa by submission (paycheck) round 1
Takanori Gomi vs. Marcus Aurelio
Aurelio shouldn’t have beat Gomi, which is why it was a non-title fight. But he did, but then he shouldn’t have fought Ishida, as the title picture was somewhat clouded. But he did, and he lost. So now we have this wonderful situation, where Aurelio’s claim to the throne is questionable at best, coming off a very clear defeat, and even if Gomi wins here, his belt will remain tarnished until he KO’s that boyscout-looking T-blood coach. Ugly, that is. In his last fight, Gomi looked like he was about to vomit everytime he was on the ground. In his last fight, Aurelio looked like he’d be lucky to remember what his name was. If Gomi sticks to what made him champion, tight boxing and great wrestling, he should make this a painful and frustrating fight for Maximus. If Gomi tries to channel Ishida and GnP his way to victory like he did against Jean Silva, he’s going to get his arm broken. Aurelio may be big enough, but I don’t think he has the technique to force a ground fight. I expect failed takedowns, and then for him to get that Mark Coleman vs. Crocop “I want to fight on the ground but you’re not letting me” look in his eyes, get punched in the gut then the face, and fall over. Gomi by KO round 1.
Gegard Mousasi vs. Hector Lombard
What is this, the “I lost to gono” special? Both of these men nearly blew Gono out of the water in the early going of their fights with him, only to lose to what amounted to his craftiness and staying power. Both had glaring weaknesses in the fight too; Lombard wasting energy like he’d been coached by Alistair Overeem, and Gegard looking hopeless on the ground. What impressed was Gegard’s striking and Hectors power, aggressiveness, and wrestling/groundwork. Matching those facts up, means that Hector, barring another gas attack, is going to throw Gegard to the ground, and beat him up/submit him. Lombard by submission round 1.
Sanae Kikuta vs. Jean Francois Lenogue
Lenogue gets submitted a lot. Kikuta is good at submissions. Kikuta gets KO’d by people who rarely drop someone, like Minotauro and Yuki Kondo. I don’t expect a decision. When one fighter doesn’t have a ground game and isn’t a top wrestler, and the other one is an experienced fighter with a good ground game, you know what happens. Kikuta by submission.
Mitsuhiro Ishida vs. David Bielkheden
In case you’re wondering, yes, Ishida is fighting another jiu-jitsu guy. Just like he has for almost his entire career. As such, we know what to expect here. David is not Shaolin, and, although big for this weight class, he is not Marcus Aurelio either. Ishida will takedown, GnP. Stay, active, keep up the hustle, show that he’s unsubmitable, and make David suffer for his loser’s paycheck. Ishida by decision.
Yoshihiro Maeda vs. Joe Pearson
I really suspect Pride is considering opening up a featherweight division in Bushido, and this is yet another ‘tester’ fight, to build a relationship with the fighters and get them some face time in front of the fans. Maeda is a (at one time rare, but now increasingly common) Japanese KO machine, while Pearson is a (at one time rare, but now increasingly common) American submission machine. I suspect Maeda has been around the block enough to avoid the ground, and just punish the limited Pearson on the feet. Neither of these guys likes to go the distance. Maeda by KO round 1.
Shinya Aoki vs. Clay French
I was really looking forward to seeing Aoki and Melendez go at it. However, last-minute injuries are the reality in the fight game, so we’re being treated to what amounts to an exhibition of Aoki’s talents. Look for him to try (again) to show us a submission that’s never been used in Pride before. This time with less loud tights. Aoki by flying submission, round 1.
Of course, in the finals, my expectations would leave Kang vs. Filho, wherein filho would handily pin him to the floor and rape him. Filho wins this GP easily, no matter who he faces. If Misaki makes it to the finals, he’ll beat Kang. If it’s an all-GRABAKA finals, who knows if they’ll fight, or spar, or put on a grappling exhibition.
“Lock” Order – most certainty first, least certainty last.
Minowa by submission (paycheck) round 1
Aoki by flying submission, round 1.
Ishida by decision.
Maeda by KO round 1.
Filho by decision.
Buscape by decision.
Kikuta by submission round 1.
Gomi by KO round 1.
Kang by Decision
Lombard by submission round 1.
Bustamante by submission Round 1
Saturday, October 21, 2006
PRIDE 32 Picks and Predictions
Prides newest event is having some serious troubles, with visas, contract disputes, and other last minute shuffling that has taken at least one very interesting match off the card.
Kazuhiro Nakamuro vs. Travis Galbraith
The fact that he's still under contract to the WFA has pulled Marvin the Beastman Eastman off of the real deal card, to be replaced on short notice by a KOTC standout who usually fights at 185, and has lost when he's fought top fighters at that weight. Nakamura often fights at heavyweight and is extremely versatile.
Great.
Nakamura is going to take him down and beat him up, either scoring a TKO or beating him until he gives up a submission. Nakamura by TKO.
Butterbean vs. Sean O'Haire
What was previously a fun match-up between Mark Hunt and an American no one cared about who would put on a good show has become a match between two Americans no one cares about. I can't believe I"m saying this, but look for Butterbean to gas Sean O'Haire out, and for him to give the big boy the same treatment he gave Bart Gunn back at wrestlmania. Butterbean by head removal KO round 1.
Phil Baroni vs Yosuke Nishijima
Baroni's pride is going to be biting his ass in this one, telling him to stand up and knockout the foreigner in front of the hometown crowd. Fortunately Mark Coleman will be in his corner, telling him to take Yosuke down to the ground where he's useless. Given the relative talent involved, we may see Baroni bust out a submission, but I expect brutal GNP. Baroni TKO Round 1.
Joey Villasenor vs. Robbie Lawler
This is one of three matches on the card that is actually competitive and has any importance for the division. Joey is a very strong finisher, mostly with striking, but his GnP will be weakened without elbows on the ground. Lawler's wrestling and physical power should allow him to control where this fight takes place, and I expect his striking ability will let him but the hurt on the more versatile Villasenor.
Robbie Lawler by KO round 2
Dan Henderson vs. Vitor Belfort
When people expect a fight to be a "mental battle" this is rarely what they're thinking of. However, this fight is going to come down to the minds of the fighters involved. I may have watched too many fights that happened in 2000 or before, but I believe Vitor can knockout Henderson, no matter how good his chin is, at any point. However, I expect Vitor to lose focus and just aimlessly watch himself get his ass kicked. On the other hand, Henderson may choose to pointlessly windmill his right arm the entire fight until he gets caught by Vitor.
That said, Henderson has his head screwed on tighter, so he should turn this into a grinding fight that crushes Vitor's will to fight with greco and clinchfighting. Henderson by decision.
Josh Barnett vs. Pawel Nastula
Barnett's performance in the OWGP oepened a lot of eyes not previously familiar with the big dork. Nastula is a gentleman, a true sportsman, and a tough competitor. He has a natural ability for GnP, and his judo skills will give most grapplers a hard time. If he had been more carefully groomed, he could be a top guy in either heavyweight or lightheavy, too bad he's being used as a "impressive win" for half the top guys in the division.
All of that aside, Barnett is going to control the location and pace of this fight, and should finish Nastula with some naughty pounding from back mount. Barnett by TKO round 2.
Mauricio Rua vs. Kevin Randleman
After Randleman's impressive win over Ninja, I"m sure Shogun will be happy to get some revenge. For his sake, I hope he's watched that tape and prepared for Randleman's speed and power. After the Coleman and Overeem fights, it's clear that Shogun has no chance of stopping Randleman's takedowns when he's still fresh, but with Shogun's extremely active guard, he's the more dangerous fighter in any position. Randleman has a real shot at winning this, by landing a huge bomb on the feet or after a takedown, but his generally poor finishing ability is going to give shogun a LOT of time to come up with a submission or land a headkick that drops the wrestler. Shogun by KO (headkick) round 1.
Fedor Emelianenko vs Mark Coleman
Coleman is a freak. That's the only way to describe the kind of threat he presents. He's not a well-rounded fighter, but nobody can out-wrestle him. Fedor's takedowns from the clinch are impressive, but Coleman is still going to throw him around like a rag doll. The biggest chance Coleman has in this fight is if (as I expect he may) he takes Fedor's back as Fedor tries to fight off a takedown. Coleman has the power and control to avoid the submission or reversal, if he keeps a cool head and doesn't gas.
But this is mark coleman we're talking about. Fedor by submission (armbar) round 2.
"Lock" Order
Nakamura by TKO round 1.
Baroni TKO Round 1.
Fedor by submission (armbar) round 2.
Butterbean by head removal KO round 1.
Henderson by decision.
Shogun by KO (headkick) round 1.
Robbie Lawler by KO round 2
Prides newest event is having some serious troubles, with visas, contract disputes, and other last minute shuffling that has taken at least one very interesting match off the card.
Kazuhiro Nakamuro vs. Travis Galbraith
The fact that he's still under contract to the WFA has pulled Marvin the Beastman Eastman off of the real deal card, to be replaced on short notice by a KOTC standout who usually fights at 185, and has lost when he's fought top fighters at that weight. Nakamura often fights at heavyweight and is extremely versatile.
Great.
Nakamura is going to take him down and beat him up, either scoring a TKO or beating him until he gives up a submission. Nakamura by TKO.
Butterbean vs. Sean O'Haire
What was previously a fun match-up between Mark Hunt and an American no one cared about who would put on a good show has become a match between two Americans no one cares about. I can't believe I"m saying this, but look for Butterbean to gas Sean O'Haire out, and for him to give the big boy the same treatment he gave Bart Gunn back at wrestlmania. Butterbean by head removal KO round 1.
Phil Baroni vs Yosuke Nishijima
Baroni's pride is going to be biting his ass in this one, telling him to stand up and knockout the foreigner in front of the hometown crowd. Fortunately Mark Coleman will be in his corner, telling him to take Yosuke down to the ground where he's useless. Given the relative talent involved, we may see Baroni bust out a submission, but I expect brutal GNP. Baroni TKO Round 1.
Joey Villasenor vs. Robbie Lawler
This is one of three matches on the card that is actually competitive and has any importance for the division. Joey is a very strong finisher, mostly with striking, but his GnP will be weakened without elbows on the ground. Lawler's wrestling and physical power should allow him to control where this fight takes place, and I expect his striking ability will let him but the hurt on the more versatile Villasenor.
Robbie Lawler by KO round 2
Dan Henderson vs. Vitor Belfort
When people expect a fight to be a "mental battle" this is rarely what they're thinking of. However, this fight is going to come down to the minds of the fighters involved. I may have watched too many fights that happened in 2000 or before, but I believe Vitor can knockout Henderson, no matter how good his chin is, at any point. However, I expect Vitor to lose focus and just aimlessly watch himself get his ass kicked. On the other hand, Henderson may choose to pointlessly windmill his right arm the entire fight until he gets caught by Vitor.
That said, Henderson has his head screwed on tighter, so he should turn this into a grinding fight that crushes Vitor's will to fight with greco and clinchfighting. Henderson by decision.
Josh Barnett vs. Pawel Nastula
Barnett's performance in the OWGP oepened a lot of eyes not previously familiar with the big dork. Nastula is a gentleman, a true sportsman, and a tough competitor. He has a natural ability for GnP, and his judo skills will give most grapplers a hard time. If he had been more carefully groomed, he could be a top guy in either heavyweight or lightheavy, too bad he's being used as a "impressive win" for half the top guys in the division.
All of that aside, Barnett is going to control the location and pace of this fight, and should finish Nastula with some naughty pounding from back mount. Barnett by TKO round 2.
Mauricio Rua vs. Kevin Randleman
After Randleman's impressive win over Ninja, I"m sure Shogun will be happy to get some revenge. For his sake, I hope he's watched that tape and prepared for Randleman's speed and power. After the Coleman and Overeem fights, it's clear that Shogun has no chance of stopping Randleman's takedowns when he's still fresh, but with Shogun's extremely active guard, he's the more dangerous fighter in any position. Randleman has a real shot at winning this, by landing a huge bomb on the feet or after a takedown, but his generally poor finishing ability is going to give shogun a LOT of time to come up with a submission or land a headkick that drops the wrestler. Shogun by KO (headkick) round 1.
Fedor Emelianenko vs Mark Coleman
Coleman is a freak. That's the only way to describe the kind of threat he presents. He's not a well-rounded fighter, but nobody can out-wrestle him. Fedor's takedowns from the clinch are impressive, but Coleman is still going to throw him around like a rag doll. The biggest chance Coleman has in this fight is if (as I expect he may) he takes Fedor's back as Fedor tries to fight off a takedown. Coleman has the power and control to avoid the submission or reversal, if he keeps a cool head and doesn't gas.
But this is mark coleman we're talking about. Fedor by submission (armbar) round 2.
"Lock" Order
Nakamura by TKO round 1.
Baroni TKO Round 1.
Fedor by submission (armbar) round 2.
Butterbean by head removal KO round 1.
Henderson by decision.
Shogun by KO (headkick) round 1.
Robbie Lawler by KO round 2
Saturday, October 14, 2006
UFC 64 Picks and Predictions
Kurt Pellegrino and Assuncao may not be hoary veterens in the MMA world, but both of them have been competing at a top level in other venues for yars. Despite leading off the night, this should be a close and technical match, on the matt. Pellegrino should be able to use his superior wrestling to dominate position and submit, but Junior is no slouch. Pellegrino by submission round 2
Clayton Guida may not be the best in the world, but he's an incredible talent. He should be able to dominate this fight, Guida submits James round 1.
I don't understand the Okami vs. Kalib fight. the UFC doesn't really care about promoting Japanese fighters, especially not by giving them wins over TUFers. I suspect that they know something I don't and Kalib is going to surprise me and beat Okami. That said, I can only pick based upon what I DO know, so I say Okami decisions Kalib.
Keith Jardine is ugly as sin, just like Nickel's standup. From looking at them, I"m surprised these two are even in the same weight class. Jardine is going to throw off any wrestling attempts by Nickels, and work him standing. Jardine by TKO in the first.
Spencer fisher is being given a stepping stone here. Several of his wins are more impressive than Lauzon's entire career. I expect Lauzon to continue to try to drag the fight to the ground, only to get beat up by Fisher. Fisher by KO round 1.
Kongo is huge and exciting. He should be able to KO his opponent here, but from the ground skills he's shown me, he can lose at any time if it goes to the mat. With his athleticism though, I think Kongo can avoid this and march to victory. Kongo by KO round 1.
Hironaka is goign to upset Fitch. Hironaka by decision.
Sean Sherk is a wrestling monster and should be very powerful for the LW division. Florian may look like a Wendy's cashier and have gotten lucky several times in the octagon, but the skills he has are real. That said, Sherk should be able to throw him around and rough him up badly. I would laugh to see the faces of the anti-TUF crowd if Florian can slap on a sub, since sherk is still questionable at the very-top level, but I don't think Florian will be the one to expose him. Sherk by TKO gnp round 1.
Rich has two advantages over Silva. First, he should be the much bigger man, as he is with most in the division. Secondly, he should have the edge in wrestling. How much of an edge is what's going to decide the winner of this fight, in my mind. Rich's best bet is if he comes out and can show some great GnP. He's not going to submit Anderson, and I doubt he's going to be able to drop him with strikes. If Rich wants to win, it's going to have to be by muscling anderson around until time is up or he's worn him down and out. Anderson has the skills to finish this fight on the feet, but it's going to be hard with someone the caliber of Rich. If rich gets duped into kickboxing with Anderson, he's going to go down hard. This fight is going to be very rough, no matter who wins. Anderson Silva by TKO round 3.
Kurt Pellegrino and Assuncao may not be hoary veterens in the MMA world, but both of them have been competing at a top level in other venues for yars. Despite leading off the night, this should be a close and technical match, on the matt. Pellegrino should be able to use his superior wrestling to dominate position and submit, but Junior is no slouch. Pellegrino by submission round 2
Clayton Guida may not be the best in the world, but he's an incredible talent. He should be able to dominate this fight, Guida submits James round 1.
I don't understand the Okami vs. Kalib fight. the UFC doesn't really care about promoting Japanese fighters, especially not by giving them wins over TUFers. I suspect that they know something I don't and Kalib is going to surprise me and beat Okami. That said, I can only pick based upon what I DO know, so I say Okami decisions Kalib.
Keith Jardine is ugly as sin, just like Nickel's standup. From looking at them, I"m surprised these two are even in the same weight class. Jardine is going to throw off any wrestling attempts by Nickels, and work him standing. Jardine by TKO in the first.
Spencer fisher is being given a stepping stone here. Several of his wins are more impressive than Lauzon's entire career. I expect Lauzon to continue to try to drag the fight to the ground, only to get beat up by Fisher. Fisher by KO round 1.
Kongo is huge and exciting. He should be able to KO his opponent here, but from the ground skills he's shown me, he can lose at any time if it goes to the mat. With his athleticism though, I think Kongo can avoid this and march to victory. Kongo by KO round 1.
Hironaka is goign to upset Fitch. Hironaka by decision.
Sean Sherk is a wrestling monster and should be very powerful for the LW division. Florian may look like a Wendy's cashier and have gotten lucky several times in the octagon, but the skills he has are real. That said, Sherk should be able to throw him around and rough him up badly. I would laugh to see the faces of the anti-TUF crowd if Florian can slap on a sub, since sherk is still questionable at the very-top level, but I don't think Florian will be the one to expose him. Sherk by TKO gnp round 1.
Rich has two advantages over Silva. First, he should be the much bigger man, as he is with most in the division. Secondly, he should have the edge in wrestling. How much of an edge is what's going to decide the winner of this fight, in my mind. Rich's best bet is if he comes out and can show some great GnP. He's not going to submit Anderson, and I doubt he's going to be able to drop him with strikes. If Rich wants to win, it's going to have to be by muscling anderson around until time is up or he's worn him down and out. Anderson has the skills to finish this fight on the feet, but it's going to be hard with someone the caliber of Rich. If rich gets duped into kickboxing with Anderson, he's going to go down hard. This fight is going to be very rough, no matter who wins. Anderson Silva by TKO round 3.
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
Ken Shamrock is the only man Ortiz has finished in years. Don’t look for this trend to change. Ken has shown evidence of becoming chinny in his last couple of fights, and doesn’t have any skill that can be a threat from Ortiz aside from mediocre boxing. Unless tito gets retarded and eats a shot, Ken is going to be hurt badly, again. Tito TKO Round 2.
Chris Price has a nice record, but Kendall Grove has fought better opposition and is being set up to win. Kendall should wrestle him to the ground from the clinch, and submit him there. Grove by sub round 1.
Jason McDonald is in over his head vs. Ed Herman. Jason has had a lot of fights and is a solid fighter, but he doesn’t have what it takes to be a top-tier competitor. Ed is going to grind him down with slow gnp, until he either rolls into the RNC, or the fight has to be stopped. Herman submission round 1.
Matt Hamill is a monster. His physical strength is exceeded only by his wrestling ability, so he is getting the takedown in his fight with Seth Petruzelli. However, seth has dealt with being on the bottom, having fought much larger men for most of his career. His striking is also light-years ahead of anything Matt has shown. Matt is such a developing talent, it’s dangerous to assume anything about what abilities he has now, but I have to go with what he’s shown. If Seth can avoid brutal GnP early in the fight, he should be able to wear Matt down on his feet and eventually drop him. Petruzelli by KO in the 2nd.
Nathan Marquardt is a methodical technical fighter who has submitted almost half of his opponents, and has been in with the best. Crafton Wallace has rarely been outside of the first round, and both of his losses come from submissions. Do the math. Marquardt by submission round 2.
Dustin Hazelett and Tony DeSouza should put on an exciting grappling show. In such cases, it’s good form to bet on the brazillian. DeSouza by sub round 2.
Rory Singer and Josh Haynes are both limited fighters, but they should put on an exciting fight. I expect Haynes’ brawling and toughness to make this a hard night for Rory, with him losing to accumulated damage and gas in the second. Haynes by TKO in the 2nd.
After hiding behind his jab for 3 roudns vs. Diego Sanchez, Alessio is going to have to step up his game to beat Thiago Alves. With his wrestling and jab, he should be able to do it. Alessio by submission round 2, after hurting him with punches.
Forrest Petz nearly killed Sam Morgan at the last UFN, but seemed to lack the aggression or fear the ground so much that he would not move in and finish. He should be able to correct that this time around, as Davis is not a world-beater, although he’s been very active this year. Petz by KO round 2.
“Lock” Order – Most certain outcomes, in decreasing order of certainty
Tito TKO Shamrock Round 2 (Sorry Ken)
Marquardt Submits Wallace round 2
Ed Herman submits McDonald round 1
Kendall Grove submits Chris Price round 1
Petruzelli KO’s Hamill round 2
Petz KO’s Davis round 2
Haynes TKO’s Singer round 2
Alessio submits Alves round 2
DeSouza submits Hazelett round 2
Chris Price has a nice record, but Kendall Grove has fought better opposition and is being set up to win. Kendall should wrestle him to the ground from the clinch, and submit him there. Grove by sub round 1.
Jason McDonald is in over his head vs. Ed Herman. Jason has had a lot of fights and is a solid fighter, but he doesn’t have what it takes to be a top-tier competitor. Ed is going to grind him down with slow gnp, until he either rolls into the RNC, or the fight has to be stopped. Herman submission round 1.
Matt Hamill is a monster. His physical strength is exceeded only by his wrestling ability, so he is getting the takedown in his fight with Seth Petruzelli. However, seth has dealt with being on the bottom, having fought much larger men for most of his career. His striking is also light-years ahead of anything Matt has shown. Matt is such a developing talent, it’s dangerous to assume anything about what abilities he has now, but I have to go with what he’s shown. If Seth can avoid brutal GnP early in the fight, he should be able to wear Matt down on his feet and eventually drop him. Petruzelli by KO in the 2nd.
Nathan Marquardt is a methodical technical fighter who has submitted almost half of his opponents, and has been in with the best. Crafton Wallace has rarely been outside of the first round, and both of his losses come from submissions. Do the math. Marquardt by submission round 2.
Dustin Hazelett and Tony DeSouza should put on an exciting grappling show. In such cases, it’s good form to bet on the brazillian. DeSouza by sub round 2.
Rory Singer and Josh Haynes are both limited fighters, but they should put on an exciting fight. I expect Haynes’ brawling and toughness to make this a hard night for Rory, with him losing to accumulated damage and gas in the second. Haynes by TKO in the 2nd.
After hiding behind his jab for 3 roudns vs. Diego Sanchez, Alessio is going to have to step up his game to beat Thiago Alves. With his wrestling and jab, he should be able to do it. Alessio by submission round 2, after hurting him with punches.
Forrest Petz nearly killed Sam Morgan at the last UFN, but seemed to lack the aggression or fear the ground so much that he would not move in and finish. He should be able to correct that this time around, as Davis is not a world-beater, although he’s been very active this year. Petz by KO round 2.
“Lock” Order – Most certain outcomes, in decreasing order of certainty
Tito TKO Shamrock Round 2 (Sorry Ken)
Marquardt Submits Wallace round 2
Ed Herman submits McDonald round 1
Kendall Grove submits Chris Price round 1
Petruzelli KO’s Hamill round 2
Petz KO’s Davis round 2
Haynes TKO’s Singer round 2
Alessio submits Alves round 2
DeSouza submits Hazelett round 2
Saturday, September 23, 2006
UFC 63 Picks
Things have been rough around the HumungusMMA office this week, so I didn't get to put together a detailed rundown of my picks, but I thought I should post them here, just so there's an unbroken record of my picks.
Griffin by TKO in the 1st
Pulver by KO in the 1st
Gurgel by Sub in the 1st
Neto Sub in the 1st
Huerta TKO's Dent in the 2nd
Guillard by TKO in the 2nd
Crow TKO in the 1st
Penn by Sub in the 1st
Lambert KO in the 2nd
Things have been rough around the HumungusMMA office this week, so I didn't get to put together a detailed rundown of my picks, but I thought I should post them here, just so there's an unbroken record of my picks.
Griffin by TKO in the 1st
Pulver by KO in the 1st
Gurgel by Sub in the 1st
Neto Sub in the 1st
Huerta TKO's Dent in the 2nd
Guillard by TKO in the 2nd
Crow TKO in the 1st
Penn by Sub in the 1st
Lambert KO in the 2nd
Sunday, September 10, 2006
Wow, what a great event.
I don't mind this being my worst showing prediction-wise when the fights were this great. It's to be expected anyway, with how tough most of these matchups were.
As an aside, this website will never have spoilers before an event airs, unless the delay is more than 2 days. So that's the official policy.
Crocop looks phenomenal. His head is totally in the game, and while it'll be hard for him to maintain that level of intensity through to the now-inevitable rematch with Fedor, he looked at his absolute best tonight. He's been nipping at the heels of the champions for so long, in K-1 before Pride, it's great to see him finally get the biggest win on the biggest stage, and walk home with a major tournament belt/crown. His boxing looked phenomenal and he proved he can hurt anyone at anytime. He's developed some powerful GNP and seems more comfortable to playing the top game than ever before.
This was a tough loss for Wanderlei, but he shouldn't lose any fans even after taking such a beating. He fought until Crocop MADE him stop. He showed he was a warrior and that Crocop would have lost at any moment until Wanderlei was limp. The fight probably would have been stopped due to Wandy's eye if it hadn't been such a huge fight, but I don't see the decision as being that questionable.
Barnett vs. Nog is going to be ground into dust in the forums as the debate rages on. Nog controlled position and made more sub attempts, but Barnett had a knockdown and a 'catch' (or two, depending on how you score his guillotine/neck crank). Nog's extra weight looked good, and he did a very good job wrestling with Josh and beat him up on the feet.
Josh didn't look great. It looked like he'd focused on mostly grappling in his training, as his always-awkward striking didn't serve him well tonight. This didn't hurt him too badly vs. Nog where he could overcome the disadvantage with his superior weight and power, but Crocop has more power even if he was the smallest man in the tournament at this point.
Arona showed nice aggression in his fight, and continues to demonstrate those brutal low kicks. What is the deal? He's become the Crocop of leg kicks. Rampage was in a wheelchair the day after fighting Arona, and Wanderlei suffered pretty much the same fate twice. Overeem hit him pretty well a couple times, and get again showed that you never know what is going to happen in an Alistair Overeem fight, for the better or worse.
Shogun showed why MMA is not kickboxing, as the snake looked to be very talented and incredibly quick for his length on the feet. As expected, he had no answer for Shogun's ground game, so he's going to be extremely limited unless he can put together a decent wrestling or BJJ game. I would like to see it, as the guy's standup was very exciting. I just hope he can still form complete thoughts after suffering such a brutal curb-stomping. Welcome to Pride, Cyrille.
Sergei showed he's a tough dude, but he threw away what was becoming a blowout victory over Aleksander. Sergei always looks slow and Alek's speed hurt him, but he should have been able to finish the monster. That said, this is one of the most gratuitously late stoppages I've seen, as Sergei was limp for quite a while, and was beaten so badly he forgot how badly he was beaten, arguing the stoppage call. He probably thought he was only dropped by that first punch and then went down. Both fighters looked tough, but their weakneses were also evident here. Sergei is slower than molasses in a Russian winter, and Aleks doesn't have the fighting spirit of his brother and has a tough time with someone who is as hard as he is and can hurt him back.
Cyborg fought the smart fight and Nishijima needs to go train BJJ for about three years before he fights MMA again. This was another horribly late stoppage, as Nishijima looked to go limp as he was tapping, and was certainly out for quite a while while Cyborg continued to choke him.
Nakamura continues to be mediocre, Nakao to disappoint. Hyun is either going to have to bounce back and realize MMA is for real, and train hard and improve like Yoon-Dong Sik, or he can take the same path as Takimoto and leave MMA forever with nothing but embarassment and injuries.
Every one of the GP participants looked sharp and at or near a lifetime best, so Fedor had better be training hard or those “Nobody Beats Me” shirts are going to be on heavy discount by the end of the year.
Friday, September 08, 2006
OWGP Final Conflict 2006 Picks and Predictions
Alright, it’s time for one of the best mega-cards of the year. The Grand Prix format usually pays off in an incredible final, and this is no different. There can be no argument that the winner of this tournament isn’t the top contender for Fedor’s golden throne, and might even knock him off of it if he doesn’t come prepared.
There are a lot of extremely close fights on this card that could go either way, but it’s my job to predict how the fight will go, so I’m not going to cheap out and say “toss-up”, but be warned before making any bets on my predictions this go round.
Evangelista Santos vs. Yosuke Nishijima
What are the chances that Cyborg had a rough childhood? The man has a Mike Tyson tattoo for God’s sake. That said, Santos should win this fight. He has way more experience, killer instinct, and he’s fighting someone with a boxer’s ground game. That said, Cyborg loves to bang and isn’t a master strategist, and Nishijima should be able to knock him out when he tries to throw. This could be an ugly fight if Cyborg tries some tactics Nishijima isn’t used to, like knees from the clinch or dirty boxing, but I expect Nishijima’s technical ability will net him the win late in the first by KO. Nishijima by KO late round 1.
Sergei Kharitonov vs. Alexander Emelianenko
Battle of the Russian bears. This fight is GUARANTEED to be ugly. Sergei is cold as ice and will not quit, while Aleks can hospitalize someone in 20 seconds.
There are some strong intangibles here that make prediction difficult: Aleks has shown dubious desire to fight in the past, notably faltering in his extremely nervous fight against crocop. Sergei is coming off a serious injury and it’s never safe to bet on a fighter like that.
Aleks hands are faster, but I think that Sergei can take this by hitting harder and better. Sergei can take a shot and he’s going to have to, but he should be able to wear the big boy down and finish him. Hopefully we’ll get to see some Sambo, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Sergei by TKO in the 2nd.
Lee Tae Hyun vs. Ricardo Morais
Another fight to register on the richter scale. The Korean “Sumo” vs. the Brazillian “Godzilla”. Hyun is over his head here. In his first mixed rules fight he’s fighting an enormous heavy hitter. Morais is slower than Christmas, but I doubt Hyun is going to explode with strikes at 6’6” and 300 lbs. It’s time to see if Hyun can take a punch to the face and if he’s been seriously training. If he has, he’ll take Morais down and grind him up for the decision, while defending subs. I don’t think it’ll happen. Top athletes from other sports given a “celebrity match” in pride almost universally rely on their one art and maybe sit in on some BJJ classes if a gracie will give them a free t-shirt. If Morais has been keeping his BJJ skills legit, he’s going to outgrapple Hyun and finish the total novice. Morais by TKO in the 1st.
Kazuhiro Nakamura vs. Yoshihiro Nakao
Both of these fighters are pretty one-dimensional, despite being legit fighters. Nakamura has fought much tougher competition and is more experienced, while Nakao has a size advantage. Nakao is going to put Nakamura on his back, and the spunky Judoka is not going to be able to do anything about it. Nakamura isn’t a finisher. Nakao will grind out the decision win unless he gasses or Nakamura brings something more to the table than he ever has before and puts him on his back and finishes it. Nakao by decision.
Mauricio Rua vs. Cyrille Diabate
With this match, pride continues to run rings around the UFC in terms of fighter maintenance. Shogun’s coming off a bad injury, so he’s given an opponent who will look good in the ring, and present a limited danger, but has weaknesses that shogun can easily exploit. Think Feyd Rautha’s drugged gladiatorial opponents in DUNE. “The Snake” is a real threat on the feet, win numerous impressive KO’s . Shogun had better watch out for those knees. That said, shogun can manhandle him to the mat and then Shogun’s extremely slick BJJ game should come to the fore and end the fight quickly. Shogun by submission early round 1.
Ricardo Arona vs. Alistair Overeem
Wow, another matchup with the potential of Sergei vs. Aleks, and similar divisional importance. These guys are the most explosively athletic fighters in the LHW division in pride, even if they fight at cross purposes. Arona seeks control and finishes when the opportunity presents itself, while Alistair tries to force a finish early in the fight whenever possible. Alistair’s been fighting a lot and might have nagging injuries, while the injury-prone Arona has been taking time off yet again to nurse his wounds. Alistair’s wrestling is underrated, so he’s going to give Arona trouble to start off the fight, and with Arona’s standup technique, Alistair could work him over early to set himself up for the win. That said, Arona will eventually get the takedown, and I’ve never seen Overeem come back from adversity. He’s too savvy and Arona too oldschool “position before submission” BJJ for the submission to be likely, but in the end, Overeem will stop intelligently defending himself. Overeem is an extremely talented fighter with a great skillset, but he always fails when he’s just on the cusp of greatness, and he never misses an opportunity to fight stupid (witness his 30 pointless takedowns on shogun or patented no-look-hook). Arona by TKO round 2.
Which brings us to the tournament. The big fat belt and fedor beatdown booby prize are up for grabs for anyone. Everyone except crocop is coming into this event extremely hungry. Josh is smaller and in better trim than ever before. Silva is proving he’s just now entering the prime of his career. Nog is bigger than ever, but looks good and comfortable at the weight, and is coming off his 2005 layoff with a renewed passion to win. Crocop is hard to read, but it’s safe to assume he’s going to come well-prepared and extremely dangerous, as always. Both he and Nog still believe they have what it takes to dethrone fedor and burn for that guaranteed rematch. Silva is a psychopath out to prove he’s the baddest man in twelve universes, and Barnett thinks the title belt would be a good ending to the movie and look nice on the shelf next to his anime collection.
Wanderlei Silva vs. Mirko Crocop
Silva’s only advantages in this fight are his will to win and his cardio. Crocop is a mile wide and an inch deep when it comes to both. Wanderlei can’t show Crocop anything he hasn’t seen already, but last time he saw a massive surprise bomb coming at his face, he fell over and was out of the 2004 HWGP. Crocop will use his power to throw Silva out of the clench whenever necessary, and Silva’s fooling himself if he thinks he can take this fight to the ground and have any success there. Crocop is dangerous with any strike he throws (in the first round) and silva has to rely on his punches. On paper, a more experienced crocop should be expected to end Wanderlei’s dream in the first with a shocking KO. In my heart, I see Silva winning, but I can’t say why. My official pick is Crocop by KO in late round 1. If Silva manages to win this, he wins the tournament.
Josh “Hentai Otaku” Barnett vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Another exciting and close fight. Josh has better wrestling, size, and probably strength, whereas Nog has more technical grappling and much better cardio and durability. Barnett’s heavier hands will negate Nog’s superior technical striking. Hopefully they’ll engage on the ground and we don’t just see some “technical striking” while each hopes they can fall into sidemount, in a replay of Werdum vs. Nog or Einemo. Barnett’s stamina has always been a question, but the shorter tournament format will benefit him in this fight, but I don’t know how well he’d do in the next round. Nog has a great game, but Barnett’s wrestling is going to put him on his back. If Barnett can prevent the sweep and keep an active GnP, he can take this fight with the judges before Nog gets a chance to work his game. Barnett wins by decision.
That would make for a Crocop vs. Barnett finals. Crocop was one of the best fighters in K-1 but never won a K-1 tournament. The same goes in pride. He doesn’t have what it takes to keep fighting multiple times a night, and is injury prone, most likely due to the power he puts into everything. If this fight happens, the two most fatigued fighters will be the ones in the finals, and it will likely be anticlimactic. Barnett will have more in the tank after the first five minutes, and he’s shown that his game can last with crocop barring freak back-of-the-knee submissions. Barnett will finish this fight in the late first round.
If silva topples crocop, he’ll win the tournament, regardless of who is put in front of him. He’ll beat a gassed Barnett as he’s never been beaten before, or he’ll abuse Nog so badly that he’ll be stopped for the first time.
If we see Nog vs. Crocop in the finals, it will look the same as the first fight, with a shorter “nog eats it” portion and a longer “Nog puts on the submission on a worn-out crocop” period.
On paper, this card cannot but be the best of the year so far. In reality they’d have to gas the stadium for the tournament finals not to produce at least one fight for the ages. This is one of the most important events of the year as well, with many fights providing “touchstones” to gauge future performance from each fighter.
Alright, it’s time for one of the best mega-cards of the year. The Grand Prix format usually pays off in an incredible final, and this is no different. There can be no argument that the winner of this tournament isn’t the top contender for Fedor’s golden throne, and might even knock him off of it if he doesn’t come prepared.
There are a lot of extremely close fights on this card that could go either way, but it’s my job to predict how the fight will go, so I’m not going to cheap out and say “toss-up”, but be warned before making any bets on my predictions this go round.
Evangelista Santos vs. Yosuke Nishijima
What are the chances that Cyborg had a rough childhood? The man has a Mike Tyson tattoo for God’s sake. That said, Santos should win this fight. He has way more experience, killer instinct, and he’s fighting someone with a boxer’s ground game. That said, Cyborg loves to bang and isn’t a master strategist, and Nishijima should be able to knock him out when he tries to throw. This could be an ugly fight if Cyborg tries some tactics Nishijima isn’t used to, like knees from the clinch or dirty boxing, but I expect Nishijima’s technical ability will net him the win late in the first by KO. Nishijima by KO late round 1.
Sergei Kharitonov vs. Alexander Emelianenko
Battle of the Russian bears. This fight is GUARANTEED to be ugly. Sergei is cold as ice and will not quit, while Aleks can hospitalize someone in 20 seconds.
There are some strong intangibles here that make prediction difficult: Aleks has shown dubious desire to fight in the past, notably faltering in his extremely nervous fight against crocop. Sergei is coming off a serious injury and it’s never safe to bet on a fighter like that.
Aleks hands are faster, but I think that Sergei can take this by hitting harder and better. Sergei can take a shot and he’s going to have to, but he should be able to wear the big boy down and finish him. Hopefully we’ll get to see some Sambo, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Sergei by TKO in the 2nd.
Lee Tae Hyun vs. Ricardo Morais
Another fight to register on the richter scale. The Korean “Sumo” vs. the Brazillian “Godzilla”. Hyun is over his head here. In his first mixed rules fight he’s fighting an enormous heavy hitter. Morais is slower than Christmas, but I doubt Hyun is going to explode with strikes at 6’6” and 300 lbs. It’s time to see if Hyun can take a punch to the face and if he’s been seriously training. If he has, he’ll take Morais down and grind him up for the decision, while defending subs. I don’t think it’ll happen. Top athletes from other sports given a “celebrity match” in pride almost universally rely on their one art and maybe sit in on some BJJ classes if a gracie will give them a free t-shirt. If Morais has been keeping his BJJ skills legit, he’s going to outgrapple Hyun and finish the total novice. Morais by TKO in the 1st.
Kazuhiro Nakamura vs. Yoshihiro Nakao
Both of these fighters are pretty one-dimensional, despite being legit fighters. Nakamura has fought much tougher competition and is more experienced, while Nakao has a size advantage. Nakao is going to put Nakamura on his back, and the spunky Judoka is not going to be able to do anything about it. Nakamura isn’t a finisher. Nakao will grind out the decision win unless he gasses or Nakamura brings something more to the table than he ever has before and puts him on his back and finishes it. Nakao by decision.
Mauricio Rua vs. Cyrille Diabate
With this match, pride continues to run rings around the UFC in terms of fighter maintenance. Shogun’s coming off a bad injury, so he’s given an opponent who will look good in the ring, and present a limited danger, but has weaknesses that shogun can easily exploit. Think Feyd Rautha’s drugged gladiatorial opponents in DUNE. “The Snake” is a real threat on the feet, win numerous impressive KO’s . Shogun had better watch out for those knees. That said, shogun can manhandle him to the mat and then Shogun’s extremely slick BJJ game should come to the fore and end the fight quickly. Shogun by submission early round 1.
Ricardo Arona vs. Alistair Overeem
Wow, another matchup with the potential of Sergei vs. Aleks, and similar divisional importance. These guys are the most explosively athletic fighters in the LHW division in pride, even if they fight at cross purposes. Arona seeks control and finishes when the opportunity presents itself, while Alistair tries to force a finish early in the fight whenever possible. Alistair’s been fighting a lot and might have nagging injuries, while the injury-prone Arona has been taking time off yet again to nurse his wounds. Alistair’s wrestling is underrated, so he’s going to give Arona trouble to start off the fight, and with Arona’s standup technique, Alistair could work him over early to set himself up for the win. That said, Arona will eventually get the takedown, and I’ve never seen Overeem come back from adversity. He’s too savvy and Arona too oldschool “position before submission” BJJ for the submission to be likely, but in the end, Overeem will stop intelligently defending himself. Overeem is an extremely talented fighter with a great skillset, but he always fails when he’s just on the cusp of greatness, and he never misses an opportunity to fight stupid (witness his 30 pointless takedowns on shogun or patented no-look-hook). Arona by TKO round 2.
Which brings us to the tournament. The big fat belt and fedor beatdown booby prize are up for grabs for anyone. Everyone except crocop is coming into this event extremely hungry. Josh is smaller and in better trim than ever before. Silva is proving he’s just now entering the prime of his career. Nog is bigger than ever, but looks good and comfortable at the weight, and is coming off his 2005 layoff with a renewed passion to win. Crocop is hard to read, but it’s safe to assume he’s going to come well-prepared and extremely dangerous, as always. Both he and Nog still believe they have what it takes to dethrone fedor and burn for that guaranteed rematch. Silva is a psychopath out to prove he’s the baddest man in twelve universes, and Barnett thinks the title belt would be a good ending to the movie and look nice on the shelf next to his anime collection.
Wanderlei Silva vs. Mirko Crocop
Silva’s only advantages in this fight are his will to win and his cardio. Crocop is a mile wide and an inch deep when it comes to both. Wanderlei can’t show Crocop anything he hasn’t seen already, but last time he saw a massive surprise bomb coming at his face, he fell over and was out of the 2004 HWGP. Crocop will use his power to throw Silva out of the clench whenever necessary, and Silva’s fooling himself if he thinks he can take this fight to the ground and have any success there. Crocop is dangerous with any strike he throws (in the first round) and silva has to rely on his punches. On paper, a more experienced crocop should be expected to end Wanderlei’s dream in the first with a shocking KO. In my heart, I see Silva winning, but I can’t say why. My official pick is Crocop by KO in late round 1. If Silva manages to win this, he wins the tournament.
Josh “Hentai Otaku” Barnett vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Another exciting and close fight. Josh has better wrestling, size, and probably strength, whereas Nog has more technical grappling and much better cardio and durability. Barnett’s heavier hands will negate Nog’s superior technical striking. Hopefully they’ll engage on the ground and we don’t just see some “technical striking” while each hopes they can fall into sidemount, in a replay of Werdum vs. Nog or Einemo. Barnett’s stamina has always been a question, but the shorter tournament format will benefit him in this fight, but I don’t know how well he’d do in the next round. Nog has a great game, but Barnett’s wrestling is going to put him on his back. If Barnett can prevent the sweep and keep an active GnP, he can take this fight with the judges before Nog gets a chance to work his game. Barnett wins by decision.
That would make for a Crocop vs. Barnett finals. Crocop was one of the best fighters in K-1 but never won a K-1 tournament. The same goes in pride. He doesn’t have what it takes to keep fighting multiple times a night, and is injury prone, most likely due to the power he puts into everything. If this fight happens, the two most fatigued fighters will be the ones in the finals, and it will likely be anticlimactic. Barnett will have more in the tank after the first five minutes, and he’s shown that his game can last with crocop barring freak back-of-the-knee submissions. Barnett will finish this fight in the late first round.
If silva topples crocop, he’ll win the tournament, regardless of who is put in front of him. He’ll beat a gassed Barnett as he’s never been beaten before, or he’ll abuse Nog so badly that he’ll be stopped for the first time.
If we see Nog vs. Crocop in the finals, it will look the same as the first fight, with a shorter “nog eats it” portion and a longer “Nog puts on the submission on a worn-out crocop” period.
On paper, this card cannot but be the best of the year so far. In reality they’d have to gas the stadium for the tournament finals not to produce at least one fight for the ages. This is one of the most important events of the year as well, with many fights providing “touchstones” to gauge future performance from each fighter.
Monday, August 28, 2006
Weekend Wrapup: UFC 62, Bushido 12 and Beyond
Last weekend, after a bit of a dry spell, we had two good cards of MMA action. One, UFC 62, rose above the crapulence of its card to put on a great show, while the other, Bushido 12, made good fights out of great matchups.
As is my duty as a serious fan of the sport, I have to look at what we’ve learned from these latest tests of strength and skill. For those of you with a 4th grade reading level (I'm looking at you, Frank Trigg and Joe Rogan) I've bolded the most important part of each lesson (your english teacher would call it a thesis if you'd made it to 8th grade).
The most important lesson: HumungusMMA is awesome at picking fights. Ok, I called the biggest fight of the weekend totally wrong, but still. Most all of the fights turned out exactly as I predicted, check it out: UFC 62 Picks Bushido 12 Picks. Okay, enough tooting my own horn.
The second most important general lesson: I am a fool with nationalities. I called all sorts of different fighters Dutch when they are not, so in the future I’m going to try to avoid even mentioning that sort of thing, or at least being right more often.
UFC 62, What Have We Learned?
Gouveia is the real deal and Combs is not. Anyone with a Record consisting mostly of 1-minute KO’s in small shows is not ready for a top-tier MMA fighter who will take him DEEP into the third minute. Hopefully Gouveia can work harder and make up for his dismal showing vs. Keith “Troll that scares Children” Jardine, where he was 1 leg kick away from victory for three rounds, and still lost.
Sometimes being a seasoned veteran can work against you. Hermes Franca stayed utterly composed, never giving in to nerves, excitement, or frustration. He also nearly lost the fight because Varner came in and tried to win. However, Franca’s strategy paid off in the end, but maybe next fight he should let a little more emotion get involved.
Cheick Kongo may not be Dutch, but he might as well be. In Holland MMA is dominated by strikers, with ground fighting playing very little role. Wrestling is not a popular sport for young people, and a BJJ parlor is hard to find. Kongo came out of a good fight looking like a striking monster who was severely limited on the ground. Hopefully he can take a page out of Bas Rutten’s book, and leave off improving his already great striking to train his ground game intensively with a good camp. Keep your eye on this guy, because he’s going to be exciting to watch even if he never wears a belt.
Nick Diaz is a scrapper. Diaz brought his attitude to the ring with him and outboxed Neer brutally while seeming to hold off on the power to preserve cardio. Diaz looked somewhat gassed after the first round, but continued to throw on strength of will alone. Anyone who faces this kid better come ready.
Forrest Griffen learned to box. While the first fight was so exciting because Forrest had no choice but to wing bombs at bonnar’s head and eat blows to the face, he impressed this time with very sharp striking that frustrated Bonnar and made him retreat into his shell. Definitely not as exciting as the first, but much more impressive, as he maintained a higher workrate without any signs of fatigue.
Chuck Liddell punches hard. Okay, so this isn’t a new lesson, but his fight with Sobral was absurd. If his fight with Tito goes the same way, we’ll have to put Chuck at #1 in his weightclass worldwide. Sure Sobral opened up for the shot, but Chuck was still very impressive placing his shots and generating that kind of power while moving backwards. The Wanderlei fight needs to happen soon, while both men are healthy, a state not likely to continue long given that Crocop has a knack for hitting people really, really hard with his foot. I have next to no interest in the Tito fight, because unless something weird happens and Tito gets it down AND finishes it, it’s going to be a repeat of the first tilt.
Bushido 12
The best grappler in Japan is a pretty darn good grappler. While Black had a monster record, Aoki made him look like a fool with an extremely rarely-seen triangle from half-guard. Aoki’s banana pants might have been offensive, but he looked comfortable at the weight and adds a very exciting new dimension to pride’s already unbelievable LW division, being one of the best and most exciting grapplers in the world. He still runs forwards with his hands out like a gimp though, but he’s fast enough and long enough to get away with it. For now.
Gilbert Melendez is a gangster. From the long hair, to the ghetto-script “Melendez” tattoo across his back like an El Camino window, Melendez is a gritty scrapper. His fight with Obiya looked on the verge of ending in a brutal KO on several occasions, and Gilbert showed absolutely no hesitation in using the Pride rules to their fullest with stomps, flying stomps, knees to the head, and soccer kicks. Melendez looked good at the higher weight, and dominated just as he did at 143, but we’ll have to see him against one of the true giants in that class before we can be sure. Obiya proved to be a gamer, and landed some heavy shots that slowly Gilbert’s onslaught, but was out of the fight from the first time he was dropped.
Don’t mess with spiders. Brennan didn’t come to fight, and hopefully wasn’t hurt too badly on his way to pick up a paycheck. Kawajiri looked good.
Ishida kills grapplers. The energizer-bunny GnP continued to be effective for Ishida against yet another grappler. Ishida simply set a blistering pace that Marcello couldn’t keep up with. Ishida also showed why he has no submission losses on his record despite almost exclusively facing the best grapplers to fight in Japan. When someone tries to lock on a sub, he repositions himself and hits them, and if they still manage to put the sub on, he WILL NOT TAP. I expect Ishida to have to take some time off for healing and therapy on that arm. Tough fight.
Sakurai continues to look good at his new weight, and will hopefully avoid the slumps of his past and remain a major force in the best division in MMA.
Minowa is the hardest working man in showbiz.
Amar Suloev couldn’t deal with Kang’s power. Hopefully Suloev will take some time off and come back stronger. Kang enters the finals with incredible momentum.
Paulo Filho can submit someone if it’s handed to them. Legend has it that before every fight, Filho flips a coin to decide how he will win. Heads, armbar from mount, Tails unanimous decision. I guess the coin came up heads when sloppy bridging from Chonan left an arm vulnerable. A very very impressive fight for Filho, showing why he’s so highly respected as a grappler, and why so many are frustrated he often doesn’t try harder for a submission finish. Filho is an absolute monster in this division and everyone in the world needs to look out for him.
Mousasi might have lost, but he showed himself to be the real deal, and I should have given him more credit. Hopefully Pride will continue to use him to produce some exciting fights. I have my doubts about that though, given that he’s foreign and was brought in to lose.
Didn’t Dan Henderson used to be a wrestler who used his sloppy but powerful striking to setup takedowns from the clinch? Or was that just a dream I had?
Gomi is still a monster. While this wasn’t Gomi’s most spectacular fight of all time, he was never in danger at all. He however looked extremely uncomfortable on the ground, like he was about to vomit, even when he was in dominant position. Gomi used to have a dangerous GnP attack. What’s going on, Takanori?
The finals of the WWGP should be interesting. The best matchups would be Kang vs. Misaki in an excellent strikers matchup, and Gono vs. Filho in another intruiging fight. Filho can obviously win it on the ground, but I don’t see him subbing Gono so easily, and Gono is scrappy and experienced enough to make a real fight out of it, and maybe even win with strikes. It could be made a Final Conflict 2005 style Bushido supercard if they put Hansen vs. Gomi or Aurelio vs. Gomi on it for the title. Ishida is hot right now, but he needs time and I don’t want to see Gomi ruin him for a year or more.
Looking further into the mists of time, other fights can be seen.
To wrap up, I think butterbean is in good position to challenge Akebono at Wrestlemania LXIX.
Last weekend, after a bit of a dry spell, we had two good cards of MMA action. One, UFC 62, rose above the crapulence of its card to put on a great show, while the other, Bushido 12, made good fights out of great matchups.
As is my duty as a serious fan of the sport, I have to look at what we’ve learned from these latest tests of strength and skill. For those of you with a 4th grade reading level (I'm looking at you, Frank Trigg and Joe Rogan) I've bolded the most important part of each lesson (your english teacher would call it a thesis if you'd made it to 8th grade).
The most important lesson: HumungusMMA is awesome at picking fights. Ok, I called the biggest fight of the weekend totally wrong, but still. Most all of the fights turned out exactly as I predicted, check it out: UFC 62 Picks Bushido 12 Picks. Okay, enough tooting my own horn.
The second most important general lesson: I am a fool with nationalities. I called all sorts of different fighters Dutch when they are not, so in the future I’m going to try to avoid even mentioning that sort of thing, or at least being right more often.
UFC 62, What Have We Learned?
Gouveia is the real deal and Combs is not. Anyone with a Record consisting mostly of 1-minute KO’s in small shows is not ready for a top-tier MMA fighter who will take him DEEP into the third minute. Hopefully Gouveia can work harder and make up for his dismal showing vs. Keith “Troll that scares Children” Jardine, where he was 1 leg kick away from victory for three rounds, and still lost.
Sometimes being a seasoned veteran can work against you. Hermes Franca stayed utterly composed, never giving in to nerves, excitement, or frustration. He also nearly lost the fight because Varner came in and tried to win. However, Franca’s strategy paid off in the end, but maybe next fight he should let a little more emotion get involved.
Cheick Kongo may not be Dutch, but he might as well be. In Holland MMA is dominated by strikers, with ground fighting playing very little role. Wrestling is not a popular sport for young people, and a BJJ parlor is hard to find. Kongo came out of a good fight looking like a striking monster who was severely limited on the ground. Hopefully he can take a page out of Bas Rutten’s book, and leave off improving his already great striking to train his ground game intensively with a good camp. Keep your eye on this guy, because he’s going to be exciting to watch even if he never wears a belt.
Nick Diaz is a scrapper. Diaz brought his attitude to the ring with him and outboxed Neer brutally while seeming to hold off on the power to preserve cardio. Diaz looked somewhat gassed after the first round, but continued to throw on strength of will alone. Anyone who faces this kid better come ready.
Forrest Griffen learned to box. While the first fight was so exciting because Forrest had no choice but to wing bombs at bonnar’s head and eat blows to the face, he impressed this time with very sharp striking that frustrated Bonnar and made him retreat into his shell. Definitely not as exciting as the first, but much more impressive, as he maintained a higher workrate without any signs of fatigue.
Chuck Liddell punches hard. Okay, so this isn’t a new lesson, but his fight with Sobral was absurd. If his fight with Tito goes the same way, we’ll have to put Chuck at #1 in his weightclass worldwide. Sure Sobral opened up for the shot, but Chuck was still very impressive placing his shots and generating that kind of power while moving backwards. The Wanderlei fight needs to happen soon, while both men are healthy, a state not likely to continue long given that Crocop has a knack for hitting people really, really hard with his foot. I have next to no interest in the Tito fight, because unless something weird happens and Tito gets it down AND finishes it, it’s going to be a repeat of the first tilt.
Bushido 12
The best grappler in Japan is a pretty darn good grappler. While Black had a monster record, Aoki made him look like a fool with an extremely rarely-seen triangle from half-guard. Aoki’s banana pants might have been offensive, but he looked comfortable at the weight and adds a very exciting new dimension to pride’s already unbelievable LW division, being one of the best and most exciting grapplers in the world. He still runs forwards with his hands out like a gimp though, but he’s fast enough and long enough to get away with it. For now.
Gilbert Melendez is a gangster. From the long hair, to the ghetto-script “Melendez” tattoo across his back like an El Camino window, Melendez is a gritty scrapper. His fight with Obiya looked on the verge of ending in a brutal KO on several occasions, and Gilbert showed absolutely no hesitation in using the Pride rules to their fullest with stomps, flying stomps, knees to the head, and soccer kicks. Melendez looked good at the higher weight, and dominated just as he did at 143, but we’ll have to see him against one of the true giants in that class before we can be sure. Obiya proved to be a gamer, and landed some heavy shots that slowly Gilbert’s onslaught, but was out of the fight from the first time he was dropped.
Don’t mess with spiders. Brennan didn’t come to fight, and hopefully wasn’t hurt too badly on his way to pick up a paycheck. Kawajiri looked good.
Ishida kills grapplers. The energizer-bunny GnP continued to be effective for Ishida against yet another grappler. Ishida simply set a blistering pace that Marcello couldn’t keep up with. Ishida also showed why he has no submission losses on his record despite almost exclusively facing the best grapplers to fight in Japan. When someone tries to lock on a sub, he repositions himself and hits them, and if they still manage to put the sub on, he WILL NOT TAP. I expect Ishida to have to take some time off for healing and therapy on that arm. Tough fight.
Sakurai continues to look good at his new weight, and will hopefully avoid the slumps of his past and remain a major force in the best division in MMA.
Minowa is the hardest working man in showbiz.
Amar Suloev couldn’t deal with Kang’s power. Hopefully Suloev will take some time off and come back stronger. Kang enters the finals with incredible momentum.
Paulo Filho can submit someone if it’s handed to them. Legend has it that before every fight, Filho flips a coin to decide how he will win. Heads, armbar from mount, Tails unanimous decision. I guess the coin came up heads when sloppy bridging from Chonan left an arm vulnerable. A very very impressive fight for Filho, showing why he’s so highly respected as a grappler, and why so many are frustrated he often doesn’t try harder for a submission finish. Filho is an absolute monster in this division and everyone in the world needs to look out for him.
Mousasi might have lost, but he showed himself to be the real deal, and I should have given him more credit. Hopefully Pride will continue to use him to produce some exciting fights. I have my doubts about that though, given that he’s foreign and was brought in to lose.
Didn’t Dan Henderson used to be a wrestler who used his sloppy but powerful striking to setup takedowns from the clinch? Or was that just a dream I had?
Gomi is still a monster. While this wasn’t Gomi’s most spectacular fight of all time, he was never in danger at all. He however looked extremely uncomfortable on the ground, like he was about to vomit, even when he was in dominant position. Gomi used to have a dangerous GnP attack. What’s going on, Takanori?
The finals of the WWGP should be interesting. The best matchups would be Kang vs. Misaki in an excellent strikers matchup, and Gono vs. Filho in another intruiging fight. Filho can obviously win it on the ground, but I don’t see him subbing Gono so easily, and Gono is scrappy and experienced enough to make a real fight out of it, and maybe even win with strikes. It could be made a Final Conflict 2005 style Bushido supercard if they put Hansen vs. Gomi or Aurelio vs. Gomi on it for the title. Ishida is hot right now, but he needs time and I don’t want to see Gomi ruin him for a year or more.
Looking further into the mists of time, other fights can be seen.
- Kongo needs to fight someone whose name has been on a PPV before. Buentello would be a great matchup, but OOPS UFC let him go so he’s fighting Tank. Great work Dana, your HW division is so strong you’ll barely miss him.
- Nick Diaz needs to fight someone in that monster division he hasn’t fought before. GSP would beat him, but Diaz would make it a good fight, and it would reabilitate GSP for another title run. UFC doesn’t seem to really want Diaz anyway, so they could use that to give him the boot, and then maybe he could sign somewhere he was appreciated, like Pride or WFA.
- Forrest Griffen needs someone to fight. When Babalu is done crying, he could beat Forrest, but then what are they going to do, throw him at Chuck again? Hand Tito another loss after Chuck floors him? Sounds like a bad idea to me. This is what happens when you have thin divisions. Wilson Gouveia would be a good fight.
- Sakurai is getting his momentum up again after being floored by Gomi and needs someone to fight. He would probably prefer not to face someone else from the Ibraki top team, so Kawajiri and Ishida are out, so maybe a rematch of his bout with Shinya Aoki in shooto.
- Kawajiri needs to fight another top guy in Pride. He’s faced checkered opposition since his fighting Buscape and Gomi back-to-back. I wouldn’t mind a rematch of his “win” over Hansen in shooto, because that’s another fight that needs to happen. Shooto might want it to occur within its own ring though. Add Aoki, Melendez, and Ishida to the list of fighters that are in a great position to fight a tough opponent. Throw the names in a hat and no matter what, you’ll get good matchups.
To wrap up, I think butterbean is in good position to challenge Akebono at Wrestlemania LXIX.
Friday, August 25, 2006
DAN HENDERSON vs KAZUO MISAKI Pre-Fight Interview
All thanks and praise to Tensei for putting all these together. I won't usually hold non-opinion stuff like this, but it's not really available most other places to english-speakers.
KAZUO MISAKI
- My mind-state right now is calm, just waiting for the time. This time I cleaned my room with the determination that I may not make it back alive…well, I’m pretty clean so it wasn’t that messy anyways haha.
- Of course I want to win against Henderson in this rematch. I’m in this match with the intent to take it all. But in this fight, I want to be able to show what I’m about more so than the results. It’s not me who decides who wins or loses, that’s up to god to decide the outcome. I’m fine as long as I can do 100% of what I’m capable of. If I can give it all and lose then I have no regrets, and if I win then it’ll add to my confidence.
- When I went to the states and trained with Ricardo Almeida, it was more MMA than jiujitsu. In his dojo there were champs, big fighters, amateur fighters that were strong, and it was a fulfilling training period. I also did some training in the gi. He taught me techniques I didn’t know about, and it really brought me back to the basics. It reminded me of the time when I first started doing judo and martial arts. “Pounce the opponent in front of you, beat the opponent in front of you,” that feeling. If I can mix his techniques and my own decisiveness, and pull out all of my abilities, then it’ll be good. I need to dig deep and get back to the basics.
- Henderson said “you can’t get that much stronger in a couple months?” I think so too, haha. But the same goes for him too. What’s different is that I still have a lot more room for improvement than him. He was my goal ever since I started, and in terms of age, experience, and mentality, there’s still a large gap that I have yet to fill. Before he was simply the stronger fighter, but in a fight anything happens. Even in a rematch this soon there might be some growth. That, you just have to find out in the fight.
- This time I just want to let out 100% of my potential, so it’s not like a win-or-bust situation for me. If I give 100% of my potential and lose, then that just means it wasn’t enough. I just gotta do what I gotta do. Before I said I will win no matter what, but since my last fight my thinking changed. I will win, well every fighter thinks that.
- Saturday will surely be an exciting fight, so I want the fans to support us with their energy.
DAN HENDERSON
- The reason I’m tanned isn’t because I did something special, when I was at my home in California it just naturally became like this. I’m easily tanned, I’m not necessarily competing with the always tanned Misaki haha.
- Watching the Opening round, I think there are a bunch of tough fighters overall. With that many tough fighters it’ll be a good stage to test my skill. Filho and Kang are named as some of the favorites for the GP, but in a match anything can happen so you never know who will advance. But as a champ ready to take them on, I have nothing to fear. Right now I’m just focusing on the Misaki fight. I didn’t do anything technical for the training, I just trained myself to a good condition.
- When Misaki fought Baroni it has only been two months since my match, so I don’t know too much about where he improved. But any fighter will become better with more experience. At any rate, Misaki is a very tough fighter and should not be taken lightly.
- But I still intend to stand on top. I won’t let anyone take that away. I just took this rematch offer because Pride gave it to me, I will beat down anyone in front of me. Do I have confidence that I will win the WW GP again? If I didn’t have that confidence then I wouldn’t be here.
All thanks and praise to Tensei for putting all these together. I won't usually hold non-opinion stuff like this, but it's not really available most other places to english-speakers.
KAZUO MISAKI
- My mind-state right now is calm, just waiting for the time. This time I cleaned my room with the determination that I may not make it back alive…well, I’m pretty clean so it wasn’t that messy anyways haha.- Of course I want to win against Henderson in this rematch. I’m in this match with the intent to take it all. But in this fight, I want to be able to show what I’m about more so than the results. It’s not me who decides who wins or loses, that’s up to god to decide the outcome. I’m fine as long as I can do 100% of what I’m capable of. If I can give it all and lose then I have no regrets, and if I win then it’ll add to my confidence.
- When I went to the states and trained with Ricardo Almeida, it was more MMA than jiujitsu. In his dojo there were champs, big fighters, amateur fighters that were strong, and it was a fulfilling training period. I also did some training in the gi. He taught me techniques I didn’t know about, and it really brought me back to the basics. It reminded me of the time when I first started doing judo and martial arts. “Pounce the opponent in front of you, beat the opponent in front of you,” that feeling. If I can mix his techniques and my own decisiveness, and pull out all of my abilities, then it’ll be good. I need to dig deep and get back to the basics.
- Henderson said “you can’t get that much stronger in a couple months?” I think so too, haha. But the same goes for him too. What’s different is that I still have a lot more room for improvement than him. He was my goal ever since I started, and in terms of age, experience, and mentality, there’s still a large gap that I have yet to fill. Before he was simply the stronger fighter, but in a fight anything happens. Even in a rematch this soon there might be some growth. That, you just have to find out in the fight.
- This time I just want to let out 100% of my potential, so it’s not like a win-or-bust situation for me. If I give 100% of my potential and lose, then that just means it wasn’t enough. I just gotta do what I gotta do. Before I said I will win no matter what, but since my last fight my thinking changed. I will win, well every fighter thinks that.
- Saturday will surely be an exciting fight, so I want the fans to support us with their energy.
DAN HENDERSON
- The reason I’m tanned isn’t because I did something special, when I was at my home in California it just naturally became like this. I’m easily tanned, I’m not necessarily competing with the always tanned Misaki haha.
- Watching the Opening round, I think there are a bunch of tough fighters overall. With that many tough fighters it’ll be a good stage to test my skill. Filho and Kang are named as some of the favorites for the GP, but in a match anything can happen so you never know who will advance. But as a champ ready to take them on, I have nothing to fear. Right now I’m just focusing on the Misaki fight. I didn’t do anything technical for the training, I just trained myself to a good condition.
- When Misaki fought Baroni it has only been two months since my match, so I don’t know too much about where he improved. But any fighter will become better with more experience. At any rate, Misaki is a very tough fighter and should not be taken lightly.
- But I still intend to stand on top. I won’t let anyone take that away. I just took this rematch offer because Pride gave it to me, I will beat down anyone in front of me. Do I have confidence that I will win the WW GP again? If I didn’t have that confidence then I wouldn’t be here.
AKIHIRO GONO vs GERARD MOUSASI Pre-Fight Interview
Credit to Tensei
AKIHIRO GONO
- Man we’re in huge trouble…I came into Nagoya but the dancers are arriving on that day. I told everyone to practice on their own and I gave them the video, but it’ll be right before the event itself when we all rehearse. I’m okay, I’m worried that we won’t be on the same beat.
- It should be good, we increased the budget this time. Where did the budget increase come from? From my fight money last time. My own pocket, haha. I want to do something different everytime for the fans who come out to see the event. You need the appropriate investment for that. Not that I have any chance of seeing any returns on it.
- I’ll just say one thing to the fans that will come over. This performance is dependent on the audience to catch the joke. Please make sure you catch the damn joke! I hope everyone will have sharp wits and will see what I’m trying to express. “Ohhh I see,” “I can’t believe he said that!” That’s the kind of reaction I’m looking for. Well, whether you like it or not isn’t my responsibility.
- I don’t really know much about Mousasi. I mean, in the three fights he fought Japanese guys he only did one-two combinations. He’s an amateur boxing world champion right? Great. In terms of just punches, I’m above the level of Japan. I think I’m on a world-wide level. I think I’m at least around OPBF level. I even think I have a shot at becoming a champion in Japanese boxing. So I’m above the level of a Dutch amateur boxing champ. If it’s possible I’d like to put on boxing gloves and fight him in a boxing match. I want to try to see who’s better.
- When I was his age I had some amount of talent, and some people called me a prodigy. But now I have a lot of experience instead. I’ll show him what a vet is like. Afterall, I’m “Magic Man” (*OTers flame away). I gave myself that nickname haha. Some boxer had that nickname and I jacked it from there, but my entrance, fighting, everything is jacked too. That’s what learning is, jacking.
- I look weak, and as a farming civilization we’re not physically as strong. In Pride I have a pretty small frame too. So people think they can win, but they end up falling into my pace. That’s Magic Man! This fight will be like magic, and he’ll be in my world before you know it.
- Until the fight I want to wander around the city, maybe enter a book store and spend an elegant holiday. I think most people are looking forward to my entrance rather than my fight, but that’s ok. My entrance improved but my fight is okay, but I’ll try to make it for you guys so yo ro shi ku!
GERARD MOUSASI
- I got the scar beneath my right eye when I got punched during sparring. Usually my partner is very careful about these things though. It’s just an accident, haha.
- I wasn’t really satisfied with how the Opening round fight went. I really wanted to be more aggressive when I got his back but I was too cautious about his subs and couldn’t really go all out. In the Gono match I want to fight like I usually do.
- I’m a striker, but I trained a lot of ground work during this time. I worked a lot on controlling the opponent and punching in various situations. I also did some weight training and so I’m more powerful now too.
- Gono is a tough fighter and it’s hard to stop his movements. He’s undoubtedly a good fighter. I respect his boxing skills but I’m better. Gono said he’ll use plenty of time to hurt me? He’s a funny guy, he probably just says those things haha.
- I think Gono is looking for ways to tire out the opponent, but I won’t fall for that. I don’t mind standing or the ground, but standing is better for KO. It’ll be a tough fight but I’ll be the winner.
- I’m looking forward to Gono’s entrance performance too haha. If he takes time like that entering then I can spend that time focusing in the ring, and I can warm up too. The audience will be in an uproar as well. If I was good at dancing then I could dance too, but I don’t think that’s my character haha.
Credit to Tensei
AKIHIRO GONO
- Man we’re in huge trouble…I came into Nagoya but the dancers are arriving on that day. I told everyone to practice on their own and I gave them the video, but it’ll be right before the event itself when we all rehearse. I’m okay, I’m worried that we won’t be on the same beat.- It should be good, we increased the budget this time. Where did the budget increase come from? From my fight money last time. My own pocket, haha. I want to do something different everytime for the fans who come out to see the event. You need the appropriate investment for that. Not that I have any chance of seeing any returns on it.
- I’ll just say one thing to the fans that will come over. This performance is dependent on the audience to catch the joke. Please make sure you catch the damn joke! I hope everyone will have sharp wits and will see what I’m trying to express. “Ohhh I see,” “I can’t believe he said that!” That’s the kind of reaction I’m looking for. Well, whether you like it or not isn’t my responsibility.
- I don’t really know much about Mousasi. I mean, in the three fights he fought Japanese guys he only did one-two combinations. He’s an amateur boxing world champion right? Great. In terms of just punches, I’m above the level of Japan. I think I’m on a world-wide level. I think I’m at least around OPBF level. I even think I have a shot at becoming a champion in Japanese boxing. So I’m above the level of a Dutch amateur boxing champ. If it’s possible I’d like to put on boxing gloves and fight him in a boxing match. I want to try to see who’s better.
- When I was his age I had some amount of talent, and some people called me a prodigy. But now I have a lot of experience instead. I’ll show him what a vet is like. Afterall, I’m “Magic Man” (*OTers flame away). I gave myself that nickname haha. Some boxer had that nickname and I jacked it from there, but my entrance, fighting, everything is jacked too. That’s what learning is, jacking.
- I look weak, and as a farming civilization we’re not physically as strong. In Pride I have a pretty small frame too. So people think they can win, but they end up falling into my pace. That’s Magic Man! This fight will be like magic, and he’ll be in my world before you know it.
- Until the fight I want to wander around the city, maybe enter a book store and spend an elegant holiday. I think most people are looking forward to my entrance rather than my fight, but that’s ok. My entrance improved but my fight is okay, but I’ll try to make it for you guys so yo ro shi ku!
GERARD MOUSASI
- I got the scar beneath my right eye when I got punched during sparring. Usually my partner is very careful about these things though. It’s just an accident, haha.- I wasn’t really satisfied with how the Opening round fight went. I really wanted to be more aggressive when I got his back but I was too cautious about his subs and couldn’t really go all out. In the Gono match I want to fight like I usually do.
- I’m a striker, but I trained a lot of ground work during this time. I worked a lot on controlling the opponent and punching in various situations. I also did some weight training and so I’m more powerful now too.
- Gono is a tough fighter and it’s hard to stop his movements. He’s undoubtedly a good fighter. I respect his boxing skills but I’m better. Gono said he’ll use plenty of time to hurt me? He’s a funny guy, he probably just says those things haha.
- I think Gono is looking for ways to tire out the opponent, but I won’t fall for that. I don’t mind standing or the ground, but standing is better for KO. It’ll be a tough fight but I’ll be the winner.
- I’m looking forward to Gono’s entrance performance too haha. If he takes time like that entering then I can spend that time focusing in the ring, and I can warm up too. The audience will be in an uproar as well. If I was good at dancing then I could dance too, but I don’t think that’s my character haha.
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