Thursday, August 28, 2008
Friday, April 18, 2008
Sam Stout vs. Rich Clementi
Clementi: +130
Stout: -160
What does Sam Stout bring that Anthony Johnson, Ross Pointon, or Melvin Guillard doesn't? Nothing. He will win a kickboxing match, but Clementi is tough and isn't dumb enough to go in and try to kickbox. I really don't understand this betting line at all. Clementi isn't going to be wearing a title belt anytime soon, but look at his record. His only losses in years are all to top level guys, who will reliably beat him, but also bring a well-rounded elite-level game into the octagon with them. Stout does not. He brings big punches and a good chin. That's not going to help against a submission wrestler. Clementi Submission round 1
I have money on Clementi at +140
Joe Doerksen vs. Jason MacDonald
MacDonald: -170
Doerksen: +140
Doerksen has been around a long time, and MacDonald is an up and comer. Macdonald has good submisison skills, very strong wrestling, and some power in his hands. Unless Doerksen can manage to be as dominant a wrestler as Yushin Okami or pound MacDonald as mercilessly as rich franklin did, Macdonald will knock him out again, even with his slow-mo punches.
I have money on Macdonald at -170
Jonathan Goulet vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Goulet: +190
Hironaka: -240
Goulet is the ultimate boom/bust fighter. I don't know if Hironaka has the tools or killer instinct to jump on the inevitable openings to finish him off, and I am always worried of Japanese fighters sleeping their way to decision loss in a slow, unaggressive technical standup fight. I don't know why it happens, but sometimes it does. That said, Hironaka SHOULDN'T lose here, because he can take what Goulet has to offer, and can threaten him in areas where Goulet is weak. Hironaka via submissions round 2.
Mark Bocek vs. Mac Danzig
Danzig: -475
Bocek: +375
A showpiece for Danzig. Bocek has the appearance of a threat because of his BJJ experience, but Danzig is a very strong grappler in his own right, and he's shown a variety of skills and great top control, so unless Bocek can put him on his back, Danzig will just show what he can do and win an impressive decision.
Ed Herman vs. Demian Maia
Demian Maia: -185
Ed Herman: +155
Ed Herman has very good grappling, although Maia should be favored there. I just expect that Herman's wrestling and his powerful hands should let him 'smash' any BJJ offense Demian tries to put together. This is a provisional pick, as I haven't watched enough tape on Demian. If I don't find any reason to change my mind, I will be putting money on Herman.
Brad Morris vs. Cain Velasquez
Morris: +175
Velasquez: -215
Noob heavyweights, who cares? Not me. Bet on the underdog if you must, because heavyweights are sloppy like that.
Jason Day vs. Alan Belcher
Belcher: -345
Day: +275
If you haven't seen it, go back and watch Belcher's fight with Kalib Starnes. He beat starnes like a slave, even doing the old Ray Sefo "take it and smile". Belcher has some very nice crisp Muay Thai, with good head movement, although he seems to get hit a lot while trading. If he keeps that up, eventually someone will tag him a good one and put him to sleep, but I don't think Day is the man to do it. While Day is coming off his biggest win (split decision over a sleepwalking David Loiseau) I fully expect Belcher to come in and smash "Dooms"Day's brains all over the canvas. He deserves it for that nickname.
Nate Quarry vs. Kalib Starnes
Starnes: +225
Quarry: -285
Both of these guys looked like shit in their last fights. Quarry was a punching bag for Pete Sell, which is never a good sign when you're a standup-only threat. Starnes looked like a whipped dog whenever Belcher or Leben hit him, although when he wasn't cringing like a little girl, he showed some good offense on the feet, and of course his grappling is on point. I don't think Quarry has the speed or technique to just overwhelm Starnes like those two did, and I don't think he has the athleticism of Belcher or the combination of wrestling and grappling that leben has. Starnes is a threat when he can control the fight and force work on the ground, and I think he can use his length to defend against Quarry and maybe work a little standup to wear the guy down. This fight will end as a blowout, either with Quarry making Starnes crap his pants trying to cower away from his abuser again, or with Starnes dominating position and submitting Quarry. I think Starnes has it.
I have money on Starnes at +265
Rich Franklin vs. Travis Lutter
There's no reason to give Lutter a shot here. He's looked more dangerous with his submissions than ever before, but Franklin is still rich Franklin. Everyone is thinking back to the armlock Okami nearly had on Franklin. I have news for you--Okami didn't finish it, and he has monster wrestling (to put franklin on his back) godzilla strength (to force Franklin's arms around like that, and to just force a sub) and very good defense on the feet (to hang with Franklin that long). Not to mention Okami's athleticism and conditioning. Lutter has none of that, just ugly facial hair. If Franklin comes in with his shoes tied together and falls flat on his back, maybe Lutter can crawl onto him and work his top game and submit, but barring that, Franklin is just going to hammer him to a stoppage. If Lutter isn't spark-out by the end of round 1, I'll be surprised, but his cardio will die and he'll get ground to a TKO in round 2.
Michael Bisping vs. Charles McCarthy
McCarthy: +290
Bisping: -350
McCarthy has a very dangerous offensive submission game, although he can get caught as well. Bisping has phenomenal sub defense, pretty good offensive submissions and sweeps, workable wrestling/takedown defense, and a very dangerous standup game. I expect Bisping to just fight this like a kickboxing match, scoring points and working for the judges. Bisping Unanimous Decision.
Matt Serra vs. Georges St. Pierre
GSP: -500
Serra: +400
Serra is the worst/weakest UFC champion in a LONG time, in my opinion. He shouldn't have been in the octagon with GSP in the first place, and, while he beat GSP with the exact same punch that he nearly killed Karo Parisyan with, GSP shouldn't have let him land it. Serra's putative strength is his ground game, but he has not shown much ability to threaten with is in MMA. Now, if GSP has a weakness (aside from speculative mental weaknesses) it's guys that just come in and beat him up. It puts him on the back foot and messes his day up. The prototypical example is BJ vs. GSP round 1. BJ just came in and hammered him, and GSP couldn't deal with it. That said, GSP should be safe as can be in Serra's guard, so if he comes in and fights smart, he'll drive the world's hardest double leg every time Serra comes in tossing hammers. If he does this for three rounds, Serra will be absolutely spent and GSP can prop him up and kick his head off like a Tee-Ball. GSP also has the power in his strikes to finish Serra at any other time, but I don't think he'll be comfortable at all trading with the Manhattan midget, so expect the takedowns. Serra is tough, but his gas is poor, so GSP by TKO or Submission in the 4th.
I have money on Serra at +400, because those are ludicrous odds. Serra may not be a standup expert, but, since he landed the same punch (to almost the same effect) on Karo, I don't think it's impossible that he does the same thing again. Combine that with the amount of pressure GSP is under, and the generally good performance of underdogs in UFC title fights, and I'll take Serra at +400 all day.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
NEW AND IMPROVED!!!!!!!
Nate Diaz vs. Kurt Pellegrino
To be filled in later. - I have a feeling here.
Manny Gamburyan vs. Jeff Cox
If you haven't seen Thiago Alves' KO of Jeff Cox, you should definitely check it out. Kind of embarassing. Cox has some skills, but he is boom or bust, and doesn't defend himself very well, although his offense isn't bad. Manny is being set up to win here, and I expect he'll be able to Manny by Sub, round 1.
Matt Hamill vs. Tim Boetsch
I love the Barbarian toss. It was seriously awesome. Hamill comes in there and mauls guys with his power, but a lot of that depends on his opponents being afraid of his wrestling. I don't think Tim is a better wrestler, but I think he can do enough to frustrate Matt that it won't impede his strikes on Matt. If Tim comes in and throws the same variety and crispness of strikes vs. Matt, I think he'll only give up the takedown infrequently, and he'll batter Hamill. Hamill is tough, but he seems to fade, so if he gets beaten on, Tim could finish him in the third, Decision is more likely, I think.
Roman Mitichyan vs. George Sotiropoulos
If Roman can't submit George, he will lose. He can't submit George. George is more skilled in every position, as well as more athletic. Roman is tough, technical, and game to fight, so this will be interesting. I expect Roman just won't be able to hang with the skills George brings to the table, and will wear himself down trying. I think George finishes him in the second.
Anthony Johnson vs. Tommy Speer
Johnson can punch well. Speer can punch hard and wrestle. You see where this goes. Speer TKO (punishment) Rd 2
Josh Neer vs. Din Thomas
Neer is a solid fighter; athletic, good power, no glaring weaknesses, decent in all areas. However, his standup seems to rely more on power than technique, which is what made Nick Diaz look like Mohammad Ali in their fight. Someone like Din Thomas, as slick and technical as he is, will continue to pick him apart. I expect to see Din beat on him until he can down him, then jump onto a submission while Neer is still dazed. It's hard to predict how long this takes, but Din isn't the hardest puncher in the world, so it could take longer.
Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard
Maynard is too slow and too raw to win this one. Edgar is just a level above him at this point. Gray may one day be on the same level, but for right now, he's still fresh out of TUF, and raw as hell, mostly relying on his physicality and toughness. Edgar has those things too, but has honed his skills to a sharper edge. I expect Edgar to beat Gray at every aspect of the game they engage in, for Gray to gas, and Edgar to finish him.
Houston Alexander vs. James Irvin
Who lands first? They win it. I expect it will be Irvin, because he won't be afraid of a banger that comes right at him. In fact, he'll invite it. He's used to that kind of thing. Irvin KO round 1 I love this fight. It's like a dirty joke or a late-night cinemax movie. It's inappropriate and embarassing, but it's what I want to see. I giggle a little.
Clay Guida vs. Samy Schiavo
Maybe Guida will get a finish here. I don't really fault him for not being the world's strongest finisher, because lord knows he tries. Samy will probably be overwhelmed and worn down and RNC'd. You know how that goes. Guida RNC Rd 2
Karo Parisyan vs. Thiago Alves
I just don't think Karo can get in there and control Thiago for 3 rounds. Previously I've said Thiago's wrestling isn't the best, but in retrospect, it's very good. Watch his fights with Tony Desouza or John Alessio. He brickwalled both of them. On top of that, Alves destroys people with his shots. His leg kicks sell wheelchairs, and his punches are discombobulating too. Hell, he sat Fitch on his ass within 20 seconds of the opening bell (granted, fitch got back up and owned him). Karo has shown trouble working his game against strong wrestlers, and while he may get some takedowns, he doesn't have the "you can't move me I'm a blanket" skills that wrestlers naturally develop. He won't get submitted, but nor will he credibly threaten Thiago with a submission.
Even if Karo catches every leg kick thiago throws, and takes him down, I expect Karo's leg to fall off in the third round. Karo has won his last several fights primarily with his standup, and that will be problematic, considering he isn't that strong defensively and mostly just relies on being tough. Karo will never quit, he has a good chin, and is tough as hell. I expect Thiago to lay an epic beating on him. Thiago TKO round 2
at +145, I have money on Thiago
Kenny Florian vs. Joe Lauzon
This is tricky. Joe comes out, blitzes his opponents with takedowns and violence and hustle. He doesn't do so well if his opponent is live and can resist that and make him work for it and hit him back. The described strategy is exactly what Diego Sanchez did to Kenny "Shang Tsung" Florian on TUF, but Florian has improved a lot since then and Lauzon is no Diego Sanchez. A lot of people give Kenny credit for lasting 5 rounds with sherk, but he did NOTHING in that fight, and Sherk has never in his career finished anyone that is either tough or good on the ground.
I think Kenny has improved to the point where he's a threat to Joe standing, at least points-wise. Joe will probably get some takedowns, but he'll have to work for them, and Kenny will defend and look to sweep. I think this goes to decision (or at least the third round) with Kenny winning a pretty clear-cut decision.
Nate Diaz vs. Kurt Pellegrino
To be filled in later. - I have a feeling here.
Manny Gamburyan vs. Jeff Cox
If you haven't seen Thiago Alves' KO of Jeff Cox, you should definitely check it out. Kind of embarassing. Cox has some skills, but he is boom or bust, and doesn't defend himself very well, although his offense isn't bad. Manny is being set up to win here, and I expect he'll be able to Manny by Sub, round 1.
Matt Hamill vs. Tim Boetsch
I love the Barbarian toss. It was seriously awesome. Hamill comes in there and mauls guys with his power, but a lot of that depends on his opponents being afraid of his wrestling. I don't think Tim is a better wrestler, but I think he can do enough to frustrate Matt that it won't impede his strikes on Matt. If Tim comes in and throws the same variety and crispness of strikes vs. Matt, I think he'll only give up the takedown infrequently, and he'll batter Hamill. Hamill is tough, but he seems to fade, so if he gets beaten on, Tim could finish him in the third, Decision is more likely, I think.
Roman Mitichyan vs. George Sotiropoulos
If Roman can't submit George, he will lose. He can't submit George. George is more skilled in every position, as well as more athletic. Roman is tough, technical, and game to fight, so this will be interesting. I expect Roman just won't be able to hang with the skills George brings to the table, and will wear himself down trying. I think George finishes him in the second.
Anthony Johnson vs. Tommy Speer
Johnson can punch well. Speer can punch hard and wrestle. You see where this goes. Speer TKO (punishment) Rd 2
Josh Neer vs. Din Thomas
Neer is a solid fighter; athletic, good power, no glaring weaknesses, decent in all areas. However, his standup seems to rely more on power than technique, which is what made Nick Diaz look like Mohammad Ali in their fight. Someone like Din Thomas, as slick and technical as he is, will continue to pick him apart. I expect to see Din beat on him until he can down him, then jump onto a submission while Neer is still dazed. It's hard to predict how long this takes, but Din isn't the hardest puncher in the world, so it could take longer.
Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard
Maynard is too slow and too raw to win this one. Edgar is just a level above him at this point. Gray may one day be on the same level, but for right now, he's still fresh out of TUF, and raw as hell, mostly relying on his physicality and toughness. Edgar has those things too, but has honed his skills to a sharper edge. I expect Edgar to beat Gray at every aspect of the game they engage in, for Gray to gas, and Edgar to finish him.
Houston Alexander vs. James Irvin
Who lands first? They win it. I expect it will be Irvin, because he won't be afraid of a banger that comes right at him. In fact, he'll invite it. He's used to that kind of thing. Irvin KO round 1 I love this fight. It's like a dirty joke or a late-night cinemax movie. It's inappropriate and embarassing, but it's what I want to see. I giggle a little.
Clay Guida vs. Samy Schiavo
Maybe Guida will get a finish here. I don't really fault him for not being the world's strongest finisher, because lord knows he tries. Samy will probably be overwhelmed and worn down and RNC'd. You know how that goes. Guida RNC Rd 2
Karo Parisyan vs. Thiago Alves
I just don't think Karo can get in there and control Thiago for 3 rounds. Previously I've said Thiago's wrestling isn't the best, but in retrospect, it's very good. Watch his fights with Tony Desouza or John Alessio. He brickwalled both of them. On top of that, Alves destroys people with his shots. His leg kicks sell wheelchairs, and his punches are discombobulating too. Hell, he sat Fitch on his ass within 20 seconds of the opening bell (granted, fitch got back up and owned him). Karo has shown trouble working his game against strong wrestlers, and while he may get some takedowns, he doesn't have the "you can't move me I'm a blanket" skills that wrestlers naturally develop. He won't get submitted, but nor will he credibly threaten Thiago with a submission.
Even if Karo catches every leg kick thiago throws, and takes him down, I expect Karo's leg to fall off in the third round. Karo has won his last several fights primarily with his standup, and that will be problematic, considering he isn't that strong defensively and mostly just relies on being tough. Karo will never quit, he has a good chin, and is tough as hell. I expect Thiago to lay an epic beating on him. Thiago TKO round 2
at +145, I have money on Thiago
Kenny Florian vs. Joe Lauzon
This is tricky. Joe comes out, blitzes his opponents with takedowns and violence and hustle. He doesn't do so well if his opponent is live and can resist that and make him work for it and hit him back. The described strategy is exactly what Diego Sanchez did to Kenny "Shang Tsung" Florian on TUF, but Florian has improved a lot since then and Lauzon is no Diego Sanchez. A lot of people give Kenny credit for lasting 5 rounds with sherk, but he did NOTHING in that fight, and Sherk has never in his career finished anyone that is either tough or good on the ground.
I think Kenny has improved to the point where he's a threat to Joe standing, at least points-wise. Joe will probably get some takedowns, but he'll have to work for them, and Kenny will defend and look to sweep. I think this goes to decision (or at least the third round) with Kenny winning a pretty clear-cut decision.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
All odds are from bookmaker.com, where I do my betting. Please notice that my "expert" advice has irony quotes around the word 'expert'. I am not actually an expert and you should make your own decisions.
Jorge Gurgel -215
John Halverson +175
I've never seen Halverson fight aside from being blitzed by Huerta, but he has a really astonishing KO rate (and a mediocre record). Gurgel used to be touted as the next big thing, but he's been exposed as a fighter that can't follow a gameplan or fight smart. He has skills, he has heart, and he's tough as nails, but he likes to eat punches to the face. He probably doesn't want to do that too much against someone with as much finishing ability as Halverson apparently has, but he's also probably tougher than anyone Halverson has ever fought. Gurgel will most likely make this more of a fight than it should be, and submit Halverson late in the 1st or midway through the second.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: I see no value in this line. Gurgel is enough of a tard to maybe lose to someone so beatable, but the odds reflect that. Gurgel might be underpriced, but I don't like betting on favorites, especially when they're as unpredictable as gurgel.
Andrei Arlovski -355
Jake OBrien +285
This fight is pretty interesting. It's been a while since we've seen Arlovski fight a strong wrestler. He shrugged off the janitor back in 2003, but he also outsized him, and Vladdy was going through his "has been" stage before he decided to become an "Is again" in the IFL. After seeing Heath Herring drop Jake early in their fight, I expect Arlovski will most likely pop the Irish Stallion a good one in this fight, and finish him off, snapping a pretty impressive undefeated streak. However, I'd be very curious to see how Arlovski handles being put on the matt and roughed up for a while. I don't think he'd take it well. Arlovski TKO round 1
Humungus "expert" betting advice: This line is kind of interesting because I think if Jake can out-wrestle arlovski (which I don't expect he'll readily be able to do) then he has a good chance of beating him. That said, Jake has questionable finishing ability when not fighting complete scrubs, and he's still a pretty unknown quantity, so I am hesitant to put any money on him.
Diego Sanchez -550
David Bielkheden +400
Mr. Bielkheden has a very spiffy pocket square;
However, I do not think he can wear it in the ring, so the spiffy swede is SOL. When one's only quality win is Charles McCartyh in 2004, Diego Sanchez is going to take you down and submit you or beat your face in, very quickly.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: Knowing how poor Diego's standup is, it's kinda tempting to put a few bucks down on such a massive underdog with KO power, but resistance to temptation is important. Diego is almost assuredly going to win, but betting on him would be idiocy at these odds.
Luke Cummo -160
Luigi Fioravanti +125
Close fight, hopefully we'll see some more crisp technical kickboxing from Cummo, who has developed some nasty power lately. Neither guy is a world-beater, but neither guy has a lot of embarassing losses either. I can't say I'm that fired up for this one. Cummo is most likely going to win by decision.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: Don't.
Jon Fitch -650
Chris Wilson +500
The difference here is experience. Fitch has been in with some of the top talent from this weightclass, and he's often emerged victorious. He hasn't had an easy fight. Until now. The best fighter Wilson has faced up until fitch is Nick Thompson, who finished him handily. Fitch will most likely do the same thing. Takedowns, grinding, abuse, until Wilson can't handle any more in the second round and gets finished.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: Wilson is such a longshot that it's tempting to bet on him on the off chance that he lands something really solid on fitch. Fitch is hittable and he's been KO'd before, so it's possible. At these odds, it's worth the money if you think Wilson wins 1/6 times. I don't think he does, though.
Chris Leben -160
Alessio Sakara +130
Sakara's chin would appear suspect, since he has been KO'd twice recently, but it's important to remember what happened in those fights. Houston drilled his grill with a brutal knee, and Mcfedries throws bombs like that's all he knows how to do. Which it is. In any case, entering the fight, Leben has more ways to win and more tools in his box, with his wrestling and submission skills in addition to his big right hand. If they just get into a standup exchange, Sakara's boxing SHOULD let him get the better of leben, but with leben's chin and power, he stands a chance in any brawl. If Leben comes in and fights smart, he'll control with wrestling and get an armbar midway through the fight. But 'smart' is a word rarely used to describe Chris Leben.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: If you believe in Sakara's hands AND think that Leben is going to be an idiot and try to just stand and bang all day, Sakara might not be a bad bet. Personally, I don't believe those things.
Cheick Kongo -170
Heath Herring +140
Heath Herring is the slop king. Kongo is the standup mandingo. Kongo's advantage is that he has an identifiable skill to threaten his opponent with. However, he also has glaring weaknesses. Herring's only weakness was the risk of his balls slipping out of his too-tiny fight shorts, which he has corrected by getting some proper pants. Heath doesn't have any readily identifiable dominant strengths, but he is competent in all areas, and brings a lot of hustle and toughness to his game. Herring needs this fight on the ground, and his wrestling is his weakest skill. However, Kongo's is very bad, and Herring can probably manage to drag him down eventually. While Heath did spend 10 minutes staring at Giant Silva before figuring out the freak was useless on the ground, I expect he'll be able to get Kongo to the ground and find a way to rough him up or submit him.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: I like heath in this fight. I think he's tough enough to fool around with Kongo for a while, and Kongo's utter uselessness on the ground even vs. Crocop make me think Heath will beat him up and twist his arms and suchlike. I have some money on Heath here.
Josh Koscheck -445
Dustin Hazelett +365
Losing to GSP doesn't mean you've fallen off. Koscheck still decides where he fights any fight he's in not involving french canadians. However, out-jabbing Diego "T-Rex Arms" Sanchez does not mean you're a dominant stand-up fighter. I don't know what kind of advantage Koscheck gains vs. Hazelett by forcing a standup fight, as Hazelett has hurt a few guys with his hands, and blown Chad Reiner's brains out in seven seconds with them. Hazelett is no mike tyson, but then again, neither is Koscheck. Coming into this fight, I see them pretty even on the feet.
On the ground, Koscheck's chances are much worse. Hazelett is a huge submission threat off his back, so Koscheck driving into a million takedowns for the decision takes a lot of risks of getting caught. Koscheck Handled Jeff Joslin for three rounds, but he was threatened several times, and I think Hazelett is more of a sub threat in MMA. He sees openings and he takes them. Koscheck will NOT be happy on top of Dustin Hazelett. Nor will he be happy with Dustin Hazelett transitions from a triangle to an armbar and taps out Koscheck in round 1.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: I think these odds are ridiculous. Hazelett is a huge underdog on the odds, and I think he's going to win the fight. Even if you don't think he's more likely to win, the odds are an even bet on Hazelett if you think he wins 1 in 5 times. I have money on Hazelett.
Yushin Okami -240
Evan Tanner +190
Welcome back Evan Tanner. Having been out for two years, it's very difficult to know what to expect from Evan. I'm going to do some more research into what's going on with his training and for how long he's been cleaned up and back into the game, and then I'll update this post with that information.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: At this point, betting on tanner is a total roll of the dice. That said, if he comes in like he did in top form years ago, he has the skills needed to beat someone as one-dimensional as Okami. Might be a good bet if you're a tanner believer.
Anderson Silva -170
Dan Henderson +140
This is going to be a very epic fight. Will Henderson be the lethal ball of fists he was vs. Rampage or Wanderlei (II) or will he windmill aimlessly and act like he has no concept of punching distance or footwork, like he did vs. Misaki? Will Anderson Silva actually go for a clinch? Will Anderson put on another virtuosic performance of perfectly lethal striking and focus, or will he drift away and become the same Silva that struggled with Ryo Chonan's standup and made Daiju Takase look like Rickson? Will one manage to actually knock the other out?
First, a couple things that will NOT happen:
1) Henderson will not submit Anderson, nor Anderson Hendo
2) Anderson will not close the distance to initiate a clinch to deliver knees. He doesn't want Henderson to get his hands on him.
I expect Henderson will come in brawling, looking to smash Silva against the fence and dirty box. Anderson's elbows could give him a lot of trouble at this range, especially since most of Hendo's power is on the end of his punches. Nevertheless, Hendo will control this position and be able to drag him down and beat him up. I expect it to look a lot like Couture vs. Chuck I, with Hendo eating good shots as he brawls in, but eventually just manhandling Silva to exhaustion. Dan Henderson TKO's Silva Round 3
Humungus "expert" betting advice: With Henderson being a decent underdog, I had to bet on him. I think he is a narrow favorite, given the style matchup. I wouldn't suggest anyone bet on Silva, with the odds against the bet like that. I have money on Henderson.
Jorge Gurgel -215
John Halverson +175
I've never seen Halverson fight aside from being blitzed by Huerta, but he has a really astonishing KO rate (and a mediocre record). Gurgel used to be touted as the next big thing, but he's been exposed as a fighter that can't follow a gameplan or fight smart. He has skills, he has heart, and he's tough as nails, but he likes to eat punches to the face. He probably doesn't want to do that too much against someone with as much finishing ability as Halverson apparently has, but he's also probably tougher than anyone Halverson has ever fought. Gurgel will most likely make this more of a fight than it should be, and submit Halverson late in the 1st or midway through the second.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: I see no value in this line. Gurgel is enough of a tard to maybe lose to someone so beatable, but the odds reflect that. Gurgel might be underpriced, but I don't like betting on favorites, especially when they're as unpredictable as gurgel.
Andrei Arlovski -355
Jake OBrien +285
This fight is pretty interesting. It's been a while since we've seen Arlovski fight a strong wrestler. He shrugged off the janitor back in 2003, but he also outsized him, and Vladdy was going through his "has been" stage before he decided to become an "Is again" in the IFL. After seeing Heath Herring drop Jake early in their fight, I expect Arlovski will most likely pop the Irish Stallion a good one in this fight, and finish him off, snapping a pretty impressive undefeated streak. However, I'd be very curious to see how Arlovski handles being put on the matt and roughed up for a while. I don't think he'd take it well. Arlovski TKO round 1
Humungus "expert" betting advice: This line is kind of interesting because I think if Jake can out-wrestle arlovski (which I don't expect he'll readily be able to do) then he has a good chance of beating him. That said, Jake has questionable finishing ability when not fighting complete scrubs, and he's still a pretty unknown quantity, so I am hesitant to put any money on him.
Diego Sanchez -550
David Bielkheden +400
Mr. Bielkheden has a very spiffy pocket square;
However, I do not think he can wear it in the ring, so the spiffy swede is SOL. When one's only quality win is Charles McCartyh in 2004, Diego Sanchez is going to take you down and submit you or beat your face in, very quickly.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: Knowing how poor Diego's standup is, it's kinda tempting to put a few bucks down on such a massive underdog with KO power, but resistance to temptation is important. Diego is almost assuredly going to win, but betting on him would be idiocy at these odds.
Luke Cummo -160
Luigi Fioravanti +125
Close fight, hopefully we'll see some more crisp technical kickboxing from Cummo, who has developed some nasty power lately. Neither guy is a world-beater, but neither guy has a lot of embarassing losses either. I can't say I'm that fired up for this one. Cummo is most likely going to win by decision.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: Don't.
Jon Fitch -650
Chris Wilson +500
The difference here is experience. Fitch has been in with some of the top talent from this weightclass, and he's often emerged victorious. He hasn't had an easy fight. Until now. The best fighter Wilson has faced up until fitch is Nick Thompson, who finished him handily. Fitch will most likely do the same thing. Takedowns, grinding, abuse, until Wilson can't handle any more in the second round and gets finished.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: Wilson is such a longshot that it's tempting to bet on him on the off chance that he lands something really solid on fitch. Fitch is hittable and he's been KO'd before, so it's possible. At these odds, it's worth the money if you think Wilson wins 1/6 times. I don't think he does, though.
Chris Leben -160
Alessio Sakara +130
Sakara's chin would appear suspect, since he has been KO'd twice recently, but it's important to remember what happened in those fights. Houston drilled his grill with a brutal knee, and Mcfedries throws bombs like that's all he knows how to do. Which it is. In any case, entering the fight, Leben has more ways to win and more tools in his box, with his wrestling and submission skills in addition to his big right hand. If they just get into a standup exchange, Sakara's boxing SHOULD let him get the better of leben, but with leben's chin and power, he stands a chance in any brawl. If Leben comes in and fights smart, he'll control with wrestling and get an armbar midway through the fight. But 'smart' is a word rarely used to describe Chris Leben.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: If you believe in Sakara's hands AND think that Leben is going to be an idiot and try to just stand and bang all day, Sakara might not be a bad bet. Personally, I don't believe those things.
Cheick Kongo -170
Heath Herring +140
Heath Herring is the slop king. Kongo is the standup mandingo. Kongo's advantage is that he has an identifiable skill to threaten his opponent with. However, he also has glaring weaknesses. Herring's only weakness was the risk of his balls slipping out of his too-tiny fight shorts, which he has corrected by getting some proper pants. Heath doesn't have any readily identifiable dominant strengths, but he is competent in all areas, and brings a lot of hustle and toughness to his game. Herring needs this fight on the ground, and his wrestling is his weakest skill. However, Kongo's is very bad, and Herring can probably manage to drag him down eventually. While Heath did spend 10 minutes staring at Giant Silva before figuring out the freak was useless on the ground, I expect he'll be able to get Kongo to the ground and find a way to rough him up or submit him.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: I like heath in this fight. I think he's tough enough to fool around with Kongo for a while, and Kongo's utter uselessness on the ground even vs. Crocop make me think Heath will beat him up and twist his arms and suchlike. I have some money on Heath here.
Josh Koscheck -445
Dustin Hazelett +365
Losing to GSP doesn't mean you've fallen off. Koscheck still decides where he fights any fight he's in not involving french canadians. However, out-jabbing Diego "T-Rex Arms" Sanchez does not mean you're a dominant stand-up fighter. I don't know what kind of advantage Koscheck gains vs. Hazelett by forcing a standup fight, as Hazelett has hurt a few guys with his hands, and blown Chad Reiner's brains out in seven seconds with them. Hazelett is no mike tyson, but then again, neither is Koscheck. Coming into this fight, I see them pretty even on the feet.
On the ground, Koscheck's chances are much worse. Hazelett is a huge submission threat off his back, so Koscheck driving into a million takedowns for the decision takes a lot of risks of getting caught. Koscheck Handled Jeff Joslin for three rounds, but he was threatened several times, and I think Hazelett is more of a sub threat in MMA. He sees openings and he takes them. Koscheck will NOT be happy on top of Dustin Hazelett. Nor will he be happy with Dustin Hazelett transitions from a triangle to an armbar and taps out Koscheck in round 1.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: I think these odds are ridiculous. Hazelett is a huge underdog on the odds, and I think he's going to win the fight. Even if you don't think he's more likely to win, the odds are an even bet on Hazelett if you think he wins 1 in 5 times. I have money on Hazelett.
Yushin Okami -240
Evan Tanner +190
Welcome back Evan Tanner. Having been out for two years, it's very difficult to know what to expect from Evan. I'm going to do some more research into what's going on with his training and for how long he's been cleaned up and back into the game, and then I'll update this post with that information.
Humungus "expert" betting advice: At this point, betting on tanner is a total roll of the dice. That said, if he comes in like he did in top form years ago, he has the skills needed to beat someone as one-dimensional as Okami. Might be a good bet if you're a tanner believer.
Anderson Silva -170
Dan Henderson +140
This is going to be a very epic fight. Will Henderson be the lethal ball of fists he was vs. Rampage or Wanderlei (II) or will he windmill aimlessly and act like he has no concept of punching distance or footwork, like he did vs. Misaki? Will Anderson Silva actually go for a clinch? Will Anderson put on another virtuosic performance of perfectly lethal striking and focus, or will he drift away and become the same Silva that struggled with Ryo Chonan's standup and made Daiju Takase look like Rickson? Will one manage to actually knock the other out?
First, a couple things that will NOT happen:
1) Henderson will not submit Anderson, nor Anderson Hendo
2) Anderson will not close the distance to initiate a clinch to deliver knees. He doesn't want Henderson to get his hands on him.
I expect Henderson will come in brawling, looking to smash Silva against the fence and dirty box. Anderson's elbows could give him a lot of trouble at this range, especially since most of Hendo's power is on the end of his punches. Nevertheless, Hendo will control this position and be able to drag him down and beat him up. I expect it to look a lot like Couture vs. Chuck I, with Hendo eating good shots as he brawls in, but eventually just manhandling Silva to exhaustion. Dan Henderson TKO's Silva Round 3
Humungus "expert" betting advice: With Henderson being a decent underdog, I had to bet on him. I think he is a narrow favorite, given the style matchup. I wouldn't suggest anyone bet on Silva, with the odds against the bet like that. I have money on Henderson.
Friday, February 23, 2007
Okay, I was inspired by James Hirth's expected lackluster effort to go and break down Pride 33. Sherdog, hire me. I obviously have talent, and I can clean it up and be more professional if need be, not to mention stick to a deadline.
Hansen vs. Ireland
Hansen was cruising for a title shot before Aoki set him back another year. Between that and his ball-shot on Kawajiri, the man has no belt to hold his pants up. This is a squash match, so there isn't much to say about it. I just felt like complaining that we're missing out on Hansen vs. Gomi for a while. Ireland is a solid wrestler, which is no good because Hansen is better at BJJ than striking. Not to mention better at striking than Ireland. Plus, Hansen's greatest attribute on the feet is POWAH, so he'll be effective even with the few shots he'll be able to land before giving up the takedown. Hansen by sub in the 2nd
Misaki vs. Trigg
Misaki is talented, and has racked up some excellent victories, but his technical and cautious striking style is poison for the likes of Baroni and Hendo. He hasn't shown me much on the ground, so Trigg has a shot at controlling and beating him up, then coasting to a decision or late stoppage once his man is worn down. That said, Trigg is being lazy by not cutting back down to his best weight and fighting a naturally bigger man, so Misaki can probably outlast and outwork Trigg and take the fight if he can avoid serious punishment early on. Misaki by decision.
Travis Wiuff vs. James Lee
It's the intended fall guy vs the late replacement in a battle to see who can get a W in his debut and never get invited back! Who cares! Sorry Travis, you're talented, but you don't matter in this division right now. Good luck, James. Wiuff by KOTC-style slop KO in the first.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Sokoudjou
I swear the shadowy forces behind pride matchmaking have something agains Rog Nog. The only interesting parts of this match are Sokoudjou's hair and figuring out whether Nog is going to KO him or sub him. I'll go out on a limb and say Nog by KO in the 5th minute.
Sakurai vs Danzig
Sakurai is my homeboy. Brother throws spin kicks, does tight-ass judo throws, and looks like someone's pissed off dad. Plus he has tight gambling debts. Danzig is a legitimately talented fighter with technical skills, but he's limited and Sakurai can do it all (and well). The short right hook comes over your infighting, Mac, and you drop, to be finished with GnP for the TKO. Sakurai KO 2nd
Sergei Kharitonov vs Mike Russow
Sergei has what it takes to be a strong competitor for years. He showed to be a much better fighter than Aleks (if a dumber one) in their match, and the only thing that's going to hold him back is his extreme slowness, and what seems to be a tendency towards injury. If the injuries were flukes, Sergei is going to continue to smash up the division. Russow is green as hell. He's a monster wrestler, so expect sergei to roll around on his back early in the match, but with no knees to the face, the Russian machine will not be stopped. Russow's inexperience will come to the fore later in the match, when he does the all-too-typical one-dimensional-wrestler gas-out after a few minutes of strong control. Then they'll be stood back up, and Sergei will maul him like he insulted the motherland. Sergei by KO 2nd.
Shogun vs. Overeem
Why is everyone saying this match is pointless? Their first match was back and forth. Sure it only went back once, and then came right back forth, but it went pretty far back. Overeem remains a legit threat, and a win here would shake up the division and make for interesting matches in the future. If Shogun wins, he'll have to show more champion-caliber qualities, and this will be an excellent touchstone fight in evaluating him. Maybe Overeem has lost a few and has all the lasting power of a 17 year old on prom night, but he's explosive, and dangerous in a number of weird ways. Not to mention he nearly won the first fight. Shogun is sloppy on the feet, and if Overeem could punch, I'd say he's the favorite. Sadly, Overeem punches with his head and then his arm follows in a wild flail. Don't ask me why. I expect essentially a repeat of the first fight, although hopefully without 30-takedown-combos by Overeem. That said, I've seen odds as strong as +350 for Overeem, and that's a smart bet if you like to play the spread. Shogun KO 2
Nick Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi
First things first: Diaz is not as big as Gomi. Nick might have fought at 170, but the man is not a huge powerful monster like GSP or Hughes are at that weight. Marcus Aurelio is a much bigger man than Nick is, and Gomi is around his size. Gomi is a lock for this fight. Diaz is durable, has tons of fight in him, and has talent on the feet and on the ground. However, a strong wrestler can control him. Gomi has a BETTER chin and more power striking, and, if he gets into trouble with Diaz's reach, he can just shoot takedowns on Diaz and ride it out. Yes Gomi was subbed when he gave up side control to Aurelio with a badly missed haymaker, and yes Diaz stuffed Sherk's takedown when Sherk's midget ass shot in from two miles away, but don't miss the forest for the trees. Diaz has no chance of taking Gomi down barring another slip-up by the champ, and Gomi isn't going to play around on the ground and give Diaz a chance for anything from his guard. Gomi is going to win. Gomi by KO 2nd
Dan Henderson vs. Wanderlei Silva
Silva has only gotten bigger and stronger since their first fight, where Silva clearly outmuscled him. Dan's improve his striking immensely, and forgotten how to wrestle. Wanderlei has honed his brawling style for MMA, and become an absolute killer, with an excellent and tight defensive guard. Silva has a soft head, and Dan a hard one. Both are incredibly tenacious and will NOT give up in a fight. Silva has much better cardio, and trying to control a larger, stronger man will wear Dan down. Dan isn't going to submit Wanderlei, and only Arona has ever been able to control the MW champ for a decision, and that man could control a buffalo. Dan's only hope is landing another monster right and dropping Wandy for the finish. If he looks for the KO, Dan's aimless windmilling style is going to get him KO'd horribly, and trying to wrestle with Silva is just going to wear him out to set up a horrible KO late in the bout. Silva by KO 2nd
So a lot of squash matches and a couple that might be important for their division. A pretty solid card then, and one that has serious talent in every fight, although the bulk of it will be on one side of the ref when the match starts. Should be very entertaining.
Hansen vs. Ireland
Hansen was cruising for a title shot before Aoki set him back another year. Between that and his ball-shot on Kawajiri, the man has no belt to hold his pants up. This is a squash match, so there isn't much to say about it. I just felt like complaining that we're missing out on Hansen vs. Gomi for a while. Ireland is a solid wrestler, which is no good because Hansen is better at BJJ than striking. Not to mention better at striking than Ireland. Plus, Hansen's greatest attribute on the feet is POWAH, so he'll be effective even with the few shots he'll be able to land before giving up the takedown. Hansen by sub in the 2nd
Misaki vs. Trigg
Misaki is talented, and has racked up some excellent victories, but his technical and cautious striking style is poison for the likes of Baroni and Hendo. He hasn't shown me much on the ground, so Trigg has a shot at controlling and beating him up, then coasting to a decision or late stoppage once his man is worn down. That said, Trigg is being lazy by not cutting back down to his best weight and fighting a naturally bigger man, so Misaki can probably outlast and outwork Trigg and take the fight if he can avoid serious punishment early on. Misaki by decision.
Travis Wiuff vs. James Lee
It's the intended fall guy vs the late replacement in a battle to see who can get a W in his debut and never get invited back! Who cares! Sorry Travis, you're talented, but you don't matter in this division right now. Good luck, James. Wiuff by KOTC-style slop KO in the first.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Sokoudjou
I swear the shadowy forces behind pride matchmaking have something agains Rog Nog. The only interesting parts of this match are Sokoudjou's hair and figuring out whether Nog is going to KO him or sub him. I'll go out on a limb and say Nog by KO in the 5th minute.
Sakurai vs Danzig
Sakurai is my homeboy. Brother throws spin kicks, does tight-ass judo throws, and looks like someone's pissed off dad. Plus he has tight gambling debts. Danzig is a legitimately talented fighter with technical skills, but he's limited and Sakurai can do it all (and well). The short right hook comes over your infighting, Mac, and you drop, to be finished with GnP for the TKO. Sakurai KO 2nd
Sergei Kharitonov vs Mike Russow
Sergei has what it takes to be a strong competitor for years. He showed to be a much better fighter than Aleks (if a dumber one) in their match, and the only thing that's going to hold him back is his extreme slowness, and what seems to be a tendency towards injury. If the injuries were flukes, Sergei is going to continue to smash up the division. Russow is green as hell. He's a monster wrestler, so expect sergei to roll around on his back early in the match, but with no knees to the face, the Russian machine will not be stopped. Russow's inexperience will come to the fore later in the match, when he does the all-too-typical one-dimensional-wrestler gas-out after a few minutes of strong control. Then they'll be stood back up, and Sergei will maul him like he insulted the motherland. Sergei by KO 2nd.
Shogun vs. Overeem
Why is everyone saying this match is pointless? Their first match was back and forth. Sure it only went back once, and then came right back forth, but it went pretty far back. Overeem remains a legit threat, and a win here would shake up the division and make for interesting matches in the future. If Shogun wins, he'll have to show more champion-caliber qualities, and this will be an excellent touchstone fight in evaluating him. Maybe Overeem has lost a few and has all the lasting power of a 17 year old on prom night, but he's explosive, and dangerous in a number of weird ways. Not to mention he nearly won the first fight. Shogun is sloppy on the feet, and if Overeem could punch, I'd say he's the favorite. Sadly, Overeem punches with his head and then his arm follows in a wild flail. Don't ask me why. I expect essentially a repeat of the first fight, although hopefully without 30-takedown-combos by Overeem. That said, I've seen odds as strong as +350 for Overeem, and that's a smart bet if you like to play the spread. Shogun KO 2
Nick Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi
First things first: Diaz is not as big as Gomi. Nick might have fought at 170, but the man is not a huge powerful monster like GSP or Hughes are at that weight. Marcus Aurelio is a much bigger man than Nick is, and Gomi is around his size. Gomi is a lock for this fight. Diaz is durable, has tons of fight in him, and has talent on the feet and on the ground. However, a strong wrestler can control him. Gomi has a BETTER chin and more power striking, and, if he gets into trouble with Diaz's reach, he can just shoot takedowns on Diaz and ride it out. Yes Gomi was subbed when he gave up side control to Aurelio with a badly missed haymaker, and yes Diaz stuffed Sherk's takedown when Sherk's midget ass shot in from two miles away, but don't miss the forest for the trees. Diaz has no chance of taking Gomi down barring another slip-up by the champ, and Gomi isn't going to play around on the ground and give Diaz a chance for anything from his guard. Gomi is going to win. Gomi by KO 2nd
Dan Henderson vs. Wanderlei Silva
Silva has only gotten bigger and stronger since their first fight, where Silva clearly outmuscled him. Dan's improve his striking immensely, and forgotten how to wrestle. Wanderlei has honed his brawling style for MMA, and become an absolute killer, with an excellent and tight defensive guard. Silva has a soft head, and Dan a hard one. Both are incredibly tenacious and will NOT give up in a fight. Silva has much better cardio, and trying to control a larger, stronger man will wear Dan down. Dan isn't going to submit Wanderlei, and only Arona has ever been able to control the MW champ for a decision, and that man could control a buffalo. Dan's only hope is landing another monster right and dropping Wandy for the finish. If he looks for the KO, Dan's aimless windmilling style is going to get him KO'd horribly, and trying to wrestle with Silva is just going to wear him out to set up a horrible KO late in the bout. Silva by KO 2nd
So a lot of squash matches and a couple that might be important for their division. A pretty solid card then, and one that has serious talent in every fight, although the bulk of it will be on one side of the ref when the match starts. Should be very entertaining.
Friday, February 02, 2007
A captive bolt gun is designed as follows.
A 'blank' pistol cartridge or a highly-compressed air source is used to drive a 'bolt' forward several inches at a very high rate of speed. Because the bolt is held 'captive' it will not leave the gun, so it can quickly be reset for another firing.
Captive bolt guns are used in slaughterhouses, to put small holes in the heads of cows and sheep, so that they die and can be eaten.
So you are wondering to yourself, "is this still an MMA blog, did I accidently stumble onto industrialfarmingmethods.blogspot.com?" Of course it's still an MMA blog, and of course I am talking about UFC 67. Say hello to Eddie Sanchez:
I'm sorry, but this kind of matchmaking is irresponsible. Crocop is simply going to cause this man irreparable damage, and then reset himself to slaughter the next scrub the UFC puts in front of him. Why the NSAC sanctioned the fight is beyond me.
Eddie will come out in the standard "holy shit that's crocop" stance, with his hands held up incredibly high, as if to ward off mosquitos, and crocop will throw the left straight down the pipe and smash his nose.
That is if Eddie doesn't come out thinking he can bum rush crocop, in which case you will see a replay of Babalu vs. Chuck II, only with crocop outrunning the punches instead of eating them.
So that's enough said about that fight.
Marvin Eastman is going for a ride.
Remember the last time Rampage fought a powerful striker who stood around 5'9"? If you don't, go buy pride 22 and watch Igor Vovchanchyn take a ride on space mountain. This is going to be a more entertaining fight than crocop's, but only because Rampage isn't the kind of fighter that stops his opponent with a single crushing blow. He just beats the other man into submission, with whatever he deems expedient at the time.
One factor I haven't heard much talk about is Rampage's ability with his elbows. Ask Chuck Liddell's ribs how well 'page can throw dem bows. I think the UFC ruleset will quickly make those his go-to tool for smashing faces. If Rampage doesn't get himself disqualified for spiking Eastman, this fight is going to be a mugging.
Anderson Silva is gifted
I think in a situation like this it's very important to see how quickly a striker can stop a fight. Anderson doesn't have the takedown defense to wear Lutter out and pick his shots over a few rounds--he's going to have to get in and work Lutter early and often. That said, Silva has multiple sub 2 minute stoppages, meaning not only does he have the striking skills, but he can work them very quickly, landing on opponents without much feeling out of their defense or strategy.
This means that Silva definitely can do what many are expecting him to do and simply blitz Travis and leave him lying against the fence. However, Lutter's style is exactly what has given Silva fits before. The man loves to throw his muay thai techniques, and seems to lose his composure to a degree when someone is just grinding him into the floor. Lutter WILL armbar someone underneath him unless they are very tight and conservative, and Silva's long arms will definitely be exposed.
That said, this fight is 50/50. If I had to pick, I'd say Silva, but given the way the odds are, I'd put money on Lutter, as this fight is much closer than +300 would indicate.
A 'blank' pistol cartridge or a highly-compressed air source is used to drive a 'bolt' forward several inches at a very high rate of speed. Because the bolt is held 'captive' it will not leave the gun, so it can quickly be reset for another firing.
Captive bolt guns are used in slaughterhouses, to put small holes in the heads of cows and sheep, so that they die and can be eaten.
So you are wondering to yourself, "is this still an MMA blog, did I accidently stumble onto industrialfarmingmethods.blogspot.com?" Of course it's still an MMA blog, and of course I am talking about UFC 67. Say hello to Eddie Sanchez:
I'm sorry, but this kind of matchmaking is irresponsible. Crocop is simply going to cause this man irreparable damage, and then reset himself to slaughter the next scrub the UFC puts in front of him. Why the NSAC sanctioned the fight is beyond me.
Eddie will come out in the standard "holy shit that's crocop" stance, with his hands held up incredibly high, as if to ward off mosquitos, and crocop will throw the left straight down the pipe and smash his nose.
That is if Eddie doesn't come out thinking he can bum rush crocop, in which case you will see a replay of Babalu vs. Chuck II, only with crocop outrunning the punches instead of eating them.
So that's enough said about that fight.
Marvin Eastman is going for a ride.
Remember the last time Rampage fought a powerful striker who stood around 5'9"? If you don't, go buy pride 22 and watch Igor Vovchanchyn take a ride on space mountain. This is going to be a more entertaining fight than crocop's, but only because Rampage isn't the kind of fighter that stops his opponent with a single crushing blow. He just beats the other man into submission, with whatever he deems expedient at the time.
One factor I haven't heard much talk about is Rampage's ability with his elbows. Ask Chuck Liddell's ribs how well 'page can throw dem bows. I think the UFC ruleset will quickly make those his go-to tool for smashing faces. If Rampage doesn't get himself disqualified for spiking Eastman, this fight is going to be a mugging.
Anderson Silva is gifted
I think in a situation like this it's very important to see how quickly a striker can stop a fight. Anderson doesn't have the takedown defense to wear Lutter out and pick his shots over a few rounds--he's going to have to get in and work Lutter early and often. That said, Silva has multiple sub 2 minute stoppages, meaning not only does he have the striking skills, but he can work them very quickly, landing on opponents without much feeling out of their defense or strategy.
This means that Silva definitely can do what many are expecting him to do and simply blitz Travis and leave him lying against the fence. However, Lutter's style is exactly what has given Silva fits before. The man loves to throw his muay thai techniques, and seems to lose his composure to a degree when someone is just grinding him into the floor. Lutter WILL armbar someone underneath him unless they are very tight and conservative, and Silva's long arms will definitely be exposed.
That said, this fight is 50/50. If I had to pick, I'd say Silva, but given the way the odds are, I'd put money on Lutter, as this fight is much closer than +300 would indicate.
Friday, November 03, 2006
Picks and Predictions for Bushido 13
Denis Kang vs. Akihiro Gono
Many are counting Gono down and out in this fight, and, admittedly, Kang has been stomping through this tournament while Gono has barely squeaked by his opposition. However, I do not expect Kang to be able to annihilate Gono as easily as many predict. Akihiro has been fighting for longer than almost anyone else in this sport, and that kind of experience can either break a man down (Paging Ken Shamrock), or give him a wealth of experience and craft that makes him a dangerous opponent for anyone. Gono falls into the latter category, so he’s going to put up a solid fight. That said, his sit-and-wait striking style has brought him trouble in his last several fights, and I expect a strong explosive striker like Kang will keep increasing the pressure, and not let Gono come into his own. On the ground, this fight should be a wash, while standing I expect Kang to dominate unless Gono has a sneaky counter to Kang’s style prepared. Look for a battered Gono to run from Kang until the final bell, barring Kang gassing out. Kang by Decision
Misaki is a very impressive striker, with a huge variety of techniques he can employ in a number of styles. His fights with Dan Henderson and Baroni opened a lot of eyes. Too bad none of this matters. Filho is going to pin him to the floor in about 30 seconds, and then, depending on a pre-match coin flip, either armbar him for mount, or ride to a unanimous decision. Given Misaki’s grappling experience, the armbar is slightly less likely. Filho by decision.
Nobuhiro Obiya vs. Luiz "Buscape" Firmino
Obiya is coming off losing his undefeated streak in what must have been a confidence-shattering mauling at the hands of Gil Melendez. Buscape is currently competing with Shaolin Ribeiro for the title of “most underutilized talent at lightweight”. Barring huge amounts of ring-rust, Buscape should be able to beat up a unconfident Obiya, but I don’t expect a finish, given Obiya’s lasting power and Buscape’s inactivity. Buscape by decision.
Murilo Bustamente vs. Yoon Dong Sik
Dong needs to have a T-shirt. I would buy it in a second, and buy more for my mom for Christmas. Busta is a tough competitor and a gritty veteran, but I don’t really see him caring about any of his fights lately. Dong has had a really rough road to hoe lately, but after his embarrassing loss to Sakuraba, proved he had what it took in taking a massive beating from Quinton Jackson. Bustamante has two options in this fight, he can force a ground war and probably submit the Judoka, or he can prance around and pick at dong, give him a black eye, and win a decision. Bustamante by submission Round 1
Ikuhisa Minowa vs. Mike Burton
Minowa once again showing he is the hardest working man in the business, Bart Gunn was nearly decapitated by butterbean and has now come back for some sort of weird reverse-revenge meta-vendetta by facing the last man to beat the bean. Whatever, couldn’t this have stopped after pride 2? Minowa by submission (paycheck) round 1
Takanori Gomi vs. Marcus Aurelio
Aurelio shouldn’t have beat Gomi, which is why it was a non-title fight. But he did, but then he shouldn’t have fought Ishida, as the title picture was somewhat clouded. But he did, and he lost. So now we have this wonderful situation, where Aurelio’s claim to the throne is questionable at best, coming off a very clear defeat, and even if Gomi wins here, his belt will remain tarnished until he KO’s that boyscout-looking T-blood coach. Ugly, that is. In his last fight, Gomi looked like he was about to vomit everytime he was on the ground. In his last fight, Aurelio looked like he’d be lucky to remember what his name was. If Gomi sticks to what made him champion, tight boxing and great wrestling, he should make this a painful and frustrating fight for Maximus. If Gomi tries to channel Ishida and GnP his way to victory like he did against Jean Silva, he’s going to get his arm broken. Aurelio may be big enough, but I don’t think he has the technique to force a ground fight. I expect failed takedowns, and then for him to get that Mark Coleman vs. Crocop “I want to fight on the ground but you’re not letting me” look in his eyes, get punched in the gut then the face, and fall over. Gomi by KO round 1.
Gegard Mousasi vs. Hector Lombard
What is this, the “I lost to gono” special? Both of these men nearly blew Gono out of the water in the early going of their fights with him, only to lose to what amounted to his craftiness and staying power. Both had glaring weaknesses in the fight too; Lombard wasting energy like he’d been coached by Alistair Overeem, and Gegard looking hopeless on the ground. What impressed was Gegard’s striking and Hectors power, aggressiveness, and wrestling/groundwork. Matching those facts up, means that Hector, barring another gas attack, is going to throw Gegard to the ground, and beat him up/submit him. Lombard by submission round 1.
Sanae Kikuta vs. Jean Francois Lenogue
Lenogue gets submitted a lot. Kikuta is good at submissions. Kikuta gets KO’d by people who rarely drop someone, like Minotauro and Yuki Kondo. I don’t expect a decision. When one fighter doesn’t have a ground game and isn’t a top wrestler, and the other one is an experienced fighter with a good ground game, you know what happens. Kikuta by submission.
Mitsuhiro Ishida vs. David Bielkheden
In case you’re wondering, yes, Ishida is fighting another jiu-jitsu guy. Just like he has for almost his entire career. As such, we know what to expect here. David is not Shaolin, and, although big for this weight class, he is not Marcus Aurelio either. Ishida will takedown, GnP. Stay, active, keep up the hustle, show that he’s unsubmitable, and make David suffer for his loser’s paycheck. Ishida by decision.
Yoshihiro Maeda vs. Joe Pearson
I really suspect Pride is considering opening up a featherweight division in Bushido, and this is yet another ‘tester’ fight, to build a relationship with the fighters and get them some face time in front of the fans. Maeda is a (at one time rare, but now increasingly common) Japanese KO machine, while Pearson is a (at one time rare, but now increasingly common) American submission machine. I suspect Maeda has been around the block enough to avoid the ground, and just punish the limited Pearson on the feet. Neither of these guys likes to go the distance. Maeda by KO round 1.
Shinya Aoki vs. Clay French
I was really looking forward to seeing Aoki and Melendez go at it. However, last-minute injuries are the reality in the fight game, so we’re being treated to what amounts to an exhibition of Aoki’s talents. Look for him to try (again) to show us a submission that’s never been used in Pride before. This time with less loud tights. Aoki by flying submission, round 1.
Of course, in the finals, my expectations would leave Kang vs. Filho, wherein filho would handily pin him to the floor and rape him. Filho wins this GP easily, no matter who he faces. If Misaki makes it to the finals, he’ll beat Kang. If it’s an all-GRABAKA finals, who knows if they’ll fight, or spar, or put on a grappling exhibition.
“Lock” Order – most certainty first, least certainty last.
Minowa by submission (paycheck) round 1
Aoki by flying submission, round 1.
Ishida by decision.
Maeda by KO round 1.
Filho by decision.
Buscape by decision.
Kikuta by submission round 1.
Gomi by KO round 1.
Kang by Decision
Lombard by submission round 1.
Bustamante by submission Round 1
Denis Kang vs. Akihiro Gono
Many are counting Gono down and out in this fight, and, admittedly, Kang has been stomping through this tournament while Gono has barely squeaked by his opposition. However, I do not expect Kang to be able to annihilate Gono as easily as many predict. Akihiro has been fighting for longer than almost anyone else in this sport, and that kind of experience can either break a man down (Paging Ken Shamrock), or give him a wealth of experience and craft that makes him a dangerous opponent for anyone. Gono falls into the latter category, so he’s going to put up a solid fight. That said, his sit-and-wait striking style has brought him trouble in his last several fights, and I expect a strong explosive striker like Kang will keep increasing the pressure, and not let Gono come into his own. On the ground, this fight should be a wash, while standing I expect Kang to dominate unless Gono has a sneaky counter to Kang’s style prepared. Look for a battered Gono to run from Kang until the final bell, barring Kang gassing out. Kang by Decision
Misaki is a very impressive striker, with a huge variety of techniques he can employ in a number of styles. His fights with Dan Henderson and Baroni opened a lot of eyes. Too bad none of this matters. Filho is going to pin him to the floor in about 30 seconds, and then, depending on a pre-match coin flip, either armbar him for mount, or ride to a unanimous decision. Given Misaki’s grappling experience, the armbar is slightly less likely. Filho by decision.
Nobuhiro Obiya vs. Luiz "Buscape" Firmino
Obiya is coming off losing his undefeated streak in what must have been a confidence-shattering mauling at the hands of Gil Melendez. Buscape is currently competing with Shaolin Ribeiro for the title of “most underutilized talent at lightweight”. Barring huge amounts of ring-rust, Buscape should be able to beat up a unconfident Obiya, but I don’t expect a finish, given Obiya’s lasting power and Buscape’s inactivity. Buscape by decision.
Murilo Bustamente vs. Yoon Dong Sik
Dong needs to have a T-shirt. I would buy it in a second, and buy more for my mom for Christmas. Busta is a tough competitor and a gritty veteran, but I don’t really see him caring about any of his fights lately. Dong has had a really rough road to hoe lately, but after his embarrassing loss to Sakuraba, proved he had what it took in taking a massive beating from Quinton Jackson. Bustamante has two options in this fight, he can force a ground war and probably submit the Judoka, or he can prance around and pick at dong, give him a black eye, and win a decision. Bustamante by submission Round 1
Ikuhisa Minowa vs. Mike Burton
Minowa once again showing he is the hardest working man in the business, Bart Gunn was nearly decapitated by butterbean and has now come back for some sort of weird reverse-revenge meta-vendetta by facing the last man to beat the bean. Whatever, couldn’t this have stopped after pride 2? Minowa by submission (paycheck) round 1
Takanori Gomi vs. Marcus Aurelio
Aurelio shouldn’t have beat Gomi, which is why it was a non-title fight. But he did, but then he shouldn’t have fought Ishida, as the title picture was somewhat clouded. But he did, and he lost. So now we have this wonderful situation, where Aurelio’s claim to the throne is questionable at best, coming off a very clear defeat, and even if Gomi wins here, his belt will remain tarnished until he KO’s that boyscout-looking T-blood coach. Ugly, that is. In his last fight, Gomi looked like he was about to vomit everytime he was on the ground. In his last fight, Aurelio looked like he’d be lucky to remember what his name was. If Gomi sticks to what made him champion, tight boxing and great wrestling, he should make this a painful and frustrating fight for Maximus. If Gomi tries to channel Ishida and GnP his way to victory like he did against Jean Silva, he’s going to get his arm broken. Aurelio may be big enough, but I don’t think he has the technique to force a ground fight. I expect failed takedowns, and then for him to get that Mark Coleman vs. Crocop “I want to fight on the ground but you’re not letting me” look in his eyes, get punched in the gut then the face, and fall over. Gomi by KO round 1.
Gegard Mousasi vs. Hector Lombard
What is this, the “I lost to gono” special? Both of these men nearly blew Gono out of the water in the early going of their fights with him, only to lose to what amounted to his craftiness and staying power. Both had glaring weaknesses in the fight too; Lombard wasting energy like he’d been coached by Alistair Overeem, and Gegard looking hopeless on the ground. What impressed was Gegard’s striking and Hectors power, aggressiveness, and wrestling/groundwork. Matching those facts up, means that Hector, barring another gas attack, is going to throw Gegard to the ground, and beat him up/submit him. Lombard by submission round 1.
Sanae Kikuta vs. Jean Francois Lenogue
Lenogue gets submitted a lot. Kikuta is good at submissions. Kikuta gets KO’d by people who rarely drop someone, like Minotauro and Yuki Kondo. I don’t expect a decision. When one fighter doesn’t have a ground game and isn’t a top wrestler, and the other one is an experienced fighter with a good ground game, you know what happens. Kikuta by submission.
Mitsuhiro Ishida vs. David Bielkheden
In case you’re wondering, yes, Ishida is fighting another jiu-jitsu guy. Just like he has for almost his entire career. As such, we know what to expect here. David is not Shaolin, and, although big for this weight class, he is not Marcus Aurelio either. Ishida will takedown, GnP. Stay, active, keep up the hustle, show that he’s unsubmitable, and make David suffer for his loser’s paycheck. Ishida by decision.
Yoshihiro Maeda vs. Joe Pearson
I really suspect Pride is considering opening up a featherweight division in Bushido, and this is yet another ‘tester’ fight, to build a relationship with the fighters and get them some face time in front of the fans. Maeda is a (at one time rare, but now increasingly common) Japanese KO machine, while Pearson is a (at one time rare, but now increasingly common) American submission machine. I suspect Maeda has been around the block enough to avoid the ground, and just punish the limited Pearson on the feet. Neither of these guys likes to go the distance. Maeda by KO round 1.
Shinya Aoki vs. Clay French
I was really looking forward to seeing Aoki and Melendez go at it. However, last-minute injuries are the reality in the fight game, so we’re being treated to what amounts to an exhibition of Aoki’s talents. Look for him to try (again) to show us a submission that’s never been used in Pride before. This time with less loud tights. Aoki by flying submission, round 1.
Of course, in the finals, my expectations would leave Kang vs. Filho, wherein filho would handily pin him to the floor and rape him. Filho wins this GP easily, no matter who he faces. If Misaki makes it to the finals, he’ll beat Kang. If it’s an all-GRABAKA finals, who knows if they’ll fight, or spar, or put on a grappling exhibition.
“Lock” Order – most certainty first, least certainty last.
Minowa by submission (paycheck) round 1
Aoki by flying submission, round 1.
Ishida by decision.
Maeda by KO round 1.
Filho by decision.
Buscape by decision.
Kikuta by submission round 1.
Gomi by KO round 1.
Kang by Decision
Lombard by submission round 1.
Bustamante by submission Round 1
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